Start your spreadsheets...

MLB season is here. Right now is the time to start thinking seriously about tracking handicappers, pitchers, teams or whatever floats your boat. I am thinking about tracking starting pitchers, specifically longest win streak, longest loss streak, current winning steak, current losing streak, highest win percentage, highest lose percentage. Also considering tracking the same stats for over/under per team. The idea is to see how long the pitcher with the highest win percentage will stay in the lead over time. Ideally the pitcher with the highest win percentage will lose a game in no more than 3 games after becoming the pitcher with the highest win percentage. To back test this idea would be a real bitch. Granted a run away pitcher could really screw things up. Time will tell. As far as over/under wins/loses goes... I suspect the first part of the season will give some insight into the second half of the season. I could do back testing on this idea but to track it daily will give me insight that simply running the numbers from last year through excel will not.

Anybody else considering tracking something in specific?

Im going to keep track of DOGS versus like/equal teams. Im going to eliminate teams that are not equal. Ex: phi vs hou. My theory is that the dogs will win about 49% of the time just from looking at basic baseball trends. The trick will be finding WHEN to play a particular dog series (as a 3 game chase). Im also assuming most dog plays will be away games. I dont like that BUT With some extra stats that are already available, like home win %, away win % and other stats like that, will make it a bit easier.
I will use power rankings from espn. As far as equality when it comes to "equal" teams, that will depend on a lot of factors...ie...how well certain teams are playing etc. JV gave some good filters on a blog the other day so I will use those maybe and see how it goes.

Check out https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/ it might give you a filter or two that will help. I did use the system briefly but ended up breaking even.

Great idea, Randisist. Nice approach. I'll def be following if you post. And you'll do well with dogs, B2W, no doubt about that. Best of luck to both of you this year.


I've been working on a system that's going to focus on road dogs, divisional dogs and road RL faves. Once I decide on the filters, it should be a fairly 'mechanical' system and easy to follow. Just doing a little more research and backtesting before I lock those filters down. I plan on flat betting it, but I guess it could be labby'd or marty'd. The cool thing is it can start on opening day!

Good luck!

Randisist - I love a spreadsheet to record results - it's imperative for sportsbetting. Not sure i would record some of the info. you refferred to only b/c i find many of the stats you refer to don't pan out - b/c i have tried.  I'm going to post MLB A system to consider soon....check it out.

Gluck to you.