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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Over/Under value bets

    xxtacoxx
    fruity92
    mojator
    jv040
    Tomspeople
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    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2009 - 9:31 AM ET #1

    So, it has been assumed that baseball overs hit about 46.5% of the time, while unders hit a little more then 48% of the time.  Also you can often find lines that offer favorable odds.  I use Matchbook where the lines are often favorable.  So my system will consist of betting all unders @ +108 or more, and overs @ +115 or more.  I will be using lines found on Matchbook.  I will post plays daily.  Thanks
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    So, it has been assumed that baseball overs hit about 46.5% of the time, while unders hit a little more then 48% of the time.  Also you can often find lines that offer favorable odds.  I use Matchbook where the lines are often favorable.  So my system will consist of betting all unders @ +108 or more, and overs @ +115 or more.  I will be using lines found on Matchbook.  I will post plays daily.  Thanks
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 2, 2009 - 9:34 AM ET #2

    For today I have...

    Houston/SD Over 7.5 (+118)
    NYM/Pitt Over 9 (+124)
    NYY Over 9.5 (+115)
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    For today I have...

    Houston/SD Over 7.5 (+118)
    NYM/Pitt Over 9 (+124)
    NYY Over 9.5 (+115)
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 3, 2009 - 11:48 AM ET #3

    Not a bad start. 

    Houston/SD Over 7.5 (+118)
    NYM/Pitt Over 9 (+124)
    NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    +3.57 units...I forgot to add that I am betting an even 1 unit per game

    Todays picks are...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+122)
    Seattle/Boston Under 8.5 (+110)
    TB/Texas Under 10.5 (+108)
    Chicago/KC Over 7.5 (+121)
    Detroit/Minn Under 9 (+115)
    Milwaukee/Chicago Over 9.5 (+121)
    LAD/SD Over 7.5 (+116)
    Houston/SF Under 8.5 (+112)
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    Not a bad start. 

    Houston/SD Over 7.5 (+118)
    NYM/Pitt Over 9 (+124)
    NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    +3.57 units...I forgot to add that I am betting an even 1 unit per game

    Todays picks are...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+122)
    Seattle/Boston Under 8.5 (+110)
    TB/Texas Under 10.5 (+108)
    Chicago/KC Over 7.5 (+121)
    Detroit/Minn Under 9 (+115)
    Milwaukee/Chicago Over 9.5 (+121)
    LAD/SD Over 7.5 (+116)
    Houston/SF Under 8.5 (+112)
     
    fruity92
    fruity92
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    Posted: Jul. 3, 2009 - 2:42 PM ET #4

    Now that's value count me in!
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    Now that's value count me in!
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 8:50 AM ET #5

    for yesterday...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+122)
    Seattle/Boston Under 8.5 (+110)
    TB/Texas Under 10.5 (+108)
    Chicago/KC Over 7.5 (+121)
    Detroit/Minn Under 9 (+115)
    Milwaukee/Chicago Over 9.5 (+121)
    LAD/SD Over 7.5 (+116)
    Houston/SF Under 8.5 (+112)

    So overall we are 5-6 (-0.19 units)
    I will be posting todays picks shortly
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    for yesterday...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+122)
    Seattle/Boston Under 8.5 (+110)
    TB/Texas Under 10.5 (+108)
    Chicago/KC Over 7.5 (+121)
    Detroit/Minn Under 9 (+115)
    Milwaukee/Chicago Over 9.5 (+121)
    LAD/SD Over 7.5 (+116)
    Houston/SF Under 8.5 (+112)

    So overall we are 5-6 (-0.19 units)
    I will be posting todays picks shortly
     
    mojator
    mojator
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 9:43 AM ET #6

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    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 4, 2009 - 10:23 AM ET #7

    Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

    Three picks for today...

    St. Louis/Cinn Under 9 (+111)

    Hou/SF Under 7 (+117)

    NYM/Phil Under 9.5 (+120)

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    Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

    Three picks for today...

    St. Louis/Cinn Under 9 (+111)

    Hou/SF Under 7 (+117)

    NYM/Phil Under 9.5 (+120)

     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 12:09 PM ET #8

    St. Louis/Cinn Under 9 (+111)

    Hou/SF Under 7 (+117)

    NYM/Phil Under 9.5 (+120)

    system is now 7-7  (+1.12 units)


    For today I will be playing...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    Oak/Clev Over 9 (+116)

    Atlanta/Wash Under 9 (+120)

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    St. Louis/Cinn Under 9 (+111)

    Hou/SF Under 7 (+117)

    NYM/Phil Under 9.5 (+120)

    system is now 7-7  (+1.12 units)


    For today I will be playing...

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    Oak/Clev Over 9 (+116)

    Atlanta/Wash Under 9 (+120)

     
    jv040
    jv040
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 12:54 PM ET #9

    whats the system
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    whats the system
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 3:06 PM ET #10

    Sorry if I was unclear in my first post.  I am taking all overs and unders that I find with favorable payouts.  the +115 for overs and +108 for unders reflect a moneyline that pays out more then the odds of hitting the respective bet.  Therefore these are value bets.  If anyone has any input or feedback it would be helpful thanks. 
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    Sorry if I was unclear in my first post.  I am taking all overs and unders that I find with favorable payouts.  the +115 for overs and +108 for unders reflect a moneyline that pays out more then the odds of hitting the respective bet.  Therefore these are value bets.  If anyone has any input or feedback it would be helpful thanks. 
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 5, 2009 - 11:04 PM ET #11

    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    Oak/Clev Over 9 (+116)

    Atlanta/Wash Under 9 (+120)

    we are now 9-8 (+2.47 units)
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    Tor/NYY Over 9.5 (+115)

    Oak/Clev Over 9 (+116)

    Atlanta/Wash Under 9 (+120)

    we are now 9-8 (+2.47 units)
     
    Tomspeople
    Tomspeople
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    Posts: 1476
    Posted: Jul. 6, 2009 - 1:30 AM ET #12

    I did something very similar in NHL last season.

    My advice to you is to not give up on it, Value O/U's will give you ALOT of ups and downs, but in the long run, it is profitable.
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    I did something very similar in NHL last season.

    My advice to you is to not give up on it, Value O/U's will give you ALOT of ups and downs, but in the long run, it is profitable.
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 6, 2009 - 9:18 AM ET #13

    Thanks for the input Toms. 

    The plays for today are as follows...

    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 7.5 (+122)
    Oak/Boston Over 10 (+121)

    I will be checking back later to see if any of the bets become valuable. 
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    Thanks for the input Toms. 

    The plays for today are as follows...

    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 7.5 (+122)
    Oak/Boston Over 10 (+121)

    I will be checking back later to see if any of the bets become valuable. 
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 6, 2009 - 12:07 PM ET #14

    Also adding...
    Texas/LAA Under 8.5 (+115)
    Phi/Cinn Over 9 (+120)
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+117)
    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+113)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+112)

    seems like as the day goes on, matchbook ends up with a good number of value bets
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    Also adding...
    Texas/LAA Under 8.5 (+115)
    Phi/Cinn Over 9 (+120)
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+117)
    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+113)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+112)

    seems like as the day goes on, matchbook ends up with a good number of value bets
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posts: 23
    Posted: Jul. 7, 2009 - 12:36 PM ET #15

    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 7.5 (+122)
    Oak/Boston Over 10 (+121)
    Texas/LAA Under 8.5 (+115)
    Phi/Cinn Over 9 (+120)
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+117)

    Florida/SF Under 8 (+112)


    now 11-13 (-.16 units)

    picks for today are...

    Cinn/Phill Under 8.5 (+116)
    Atlanta/Chi Over 9 (+131)
    St. Louis/Mil Under 7.5 (+111)
    Clev/Chicago Under 9 (+118)
    NYY/MInn Over 9 (+120)
     
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    SD/Arizona Under 10 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 7.5 (+122)
    Oak/Boston Over 10 (+121)
    Texas/LAA Under 8.5 (+115)
    Phi/Cinn Over 9 (+120)
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+117)

    Florida/SF Under 8 (+112)


    now 11-13 (-.16 units)

    picks for today are...

    Cinn/Phill Under 8.5 (+116)
    Atlanta/Chi Over 9 (+131)
    St. Louis/Mil Under 7.5 (+111)
    Clev/Chicago Under 9 (+118)
    NYY/MInn Over 9 (+120)
     
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2009 - 9:39 AM ET #16

    Cinn/Phill Under 8.5 (+116)
    Atlanta/Chi Over 9 (+131)
    St. Louis/Mil Under 7.5 (+111)
    Clev/Chicago Under 9 (+118)
    NYY/MInn Over 9 (+120)

    system is 14-15 (+1.31 Units)

    Todays picks...
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+109)
    Cinn/Phil Under 9.5 (+108)
    KC/Det Under 8 (+108)

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    Cinn/Phill Under 8.5 (+116)
    Atlanta/Chi Over 9 (+131)
    St. Louis/Mil Under 7.5 (+111)
    Clev/Chicago Under 9 (+118)
    NYY/MInn Over 9 (+120)

    system is 14-15 (+1.31 Units)

    Todays picks...
    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+109)
    Cinn/Phil Under 9.5 (+108)
    KC/Det Under 8 (+108)

     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2009 - 10:42 AM ET #17

    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+109)
    Cinn/Phil Under 9.5 (+108)
    KC/Det Under 8 (+108)

    now 17-16 (+3.56 units)

    Todays picks are...

    St. Louis/Milw Over 9.5 (+125)
    NYM/LAD Under 8.5 (+122)
    Wash/Houston Under 8.5 (+138)
    Atlanta/Col Under 9 (+109)

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    Wash/Col Under 10.5 (+109)
    Florida/SF Under 8 (+109)
    Cinn/Phil Under 9.5 (+108)
    KC/Det Under 8 (+108)

    now 17-16 (+3.56 units)

    Todays picks are...

    St. Louis/Milw Over 9.5 (+125)
    NYM/LAD Under 8.5 (+122)
    Wash/Houston Under 8.5 (+138)
    Atlanta/Col Under 9 (+109)

     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2009 - 11:44 PM ET #18

    St. Louis/Milw Over 9.5 (+125)
    NYM/LAD Under 8.5 (+122)
    Wash/Houston Under 8.5 (+138)
    Atlanta/Col Under 9 (+109)

    Terrible day...record now 17-20 (-.44 units)

    ok...going to South Beach for the weekend...be back Monday for more plays
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    St. Louis/Milw Over 9.5 (+125)
    NYM/LAD Under 8.5 (+122)
    Wash/Houston Under 8.5 (+138)
    Atlanta/Col Under 9 (+109)

    Terrible day...record now 17-20 (-.44 units)

    ok...going to South Beach for the weekend...be back Monday for more plays
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 18, 2009 - 1:25 PM ET #19

    ok back to work...sorr its a little late so we have...

    Chic/Wash Under 8 (+113)
    Phil/Flor Under 8 (+112)
    Hou/LA Under 8 (+111)
    Balt/ChicW Under 9 (+111)
    Sea/Clev Under 9 (+120)

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    ok back to work...sorr its a little late so we have...

    Chic/Wash Under 8 (+113)
    Phil/Flor Under 8 (+112)
    Hou/LA Under 8 (+111)
    Balt/ChicW Under 9 (+111)
    Sea/Clev Under 9 (+120)

     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
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    Posted: Jul. 19, 2009 - 11:27 AM ET #20

    Chic/Wash Under 8 (+113)
    Phil/Flor Under 8 (+112) no bet...
    Hou/LA Under 8 (+111)
    Balt/ChicW Under 9 (+111)
    Sea/Clev Under 9 (+120)

    20-21 (+ 1.98 units)

    today's picks...

    Milw/Cinc Under 8 (+110)
    Chic/Wash Under 9 (+131)
    Col/SD Under 7.5 (+113)
    Hou/LA Under 8.5 (+123)
    NYM/Atl Under 8 (+116)
    TB/KC Under 8.5 (+119)


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    Chic/Wash Under 8 (+113)
    Phil/Flor Under 8 (+112) no bet...
    Hou/LA Under 8 (+111)
    Balt/ChicW Under 9 (+111)
    Sea/Clev Under 9 (+120)

    20-21 (+ 1.98 units)

    today's picks...

    Milw/Cinc Under 8 (+110)
    Chic/Wash Under 9 (+131)
    Col/SD Under 7.5 (+113)
    Hou/LA Under 8.5 (+123)
    NYM/Atl Under 8 (+116)
    TB/KC Under 8.5 (+119)


     
     
    xxtacoxx
    xxtacoxx
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2008
    Posts: 23
    Posted: Jul. 20, 2009 - 8:52 AM ET #21

    Milw/Cinc Under 8 (+110)   PUSH
    Chic/Wash Under 9 (+131)
    Col/SD Under 7.5 (+113) 
    Hou/LA Under 8.5 (+123)
    NYM/Atl Under 8 (+116)  PUSH
    TB/KC Under 8.5 (+119)

    23-22 (+ 4.53 Units)

    Today's picks...

    Milw/Pitt Under 9 (+113)
    Boston/Texas Over 10 (+122)
    LA/KC Under 9 (+110)

    I will check back later for more...
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Milw/Cinc Under 8 (+110)   PUSH
    Chic/Wash Under 9 (+131)
    Col/SD Under 7.5 (+113) 
    Hou/LA Under 8.5 (+123)
    NYM/Atl Under 8 (+116)  PUSH
    TB/KC Under 8.5 (+119)

    23-22 (+ 4.53 Units)

    Today's picks...

    Milw/Pitt Under 9 (+113)
    Boston/Texas Over 10 (+122)
    LA/KC Under 9 (+110)

    I will check back later for more...
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