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NFL SYSTEM - WEST COAST TEAMS COMING TO THE EAST COAST AND PLAYING 1:00 GAMES

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Posted: #1
There's been a lot of talk recently about west coast NFL teams coming to the east coast and playing 1:00 (eastern time zone) games. Bottom line, they have not done well.

I went back and researched the last couple of years and the results I've found are astounding.

First, let's clarify west coast and east coast teams.

The west coast teams are the Seahawks, 49ers, Chargers, and Raiders. I did not count the Cardinals or Broncos (both are in the mountain time zone).

The teams that play in the eastern time zone include the Patriots, Jets, Giants, Bills, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, Redskins, Lions, Browns, Bengals, Colts, Panthers, Falcons, Dolphins, Buccaneers, and Jaguars. Believe it or not, all of those teams are in the eastern time zone.

So this system is in play when one of the 4 west coast teams comes east and is playing one of the 17 east coast teams at 1:00 on Sunday, making it feel like a 10:00 a.m. game for those west coast teams. There would be a three hour time zone difference.

I went back and researched all of these occurances from 2006 to the present. These results are for games that were played in the regular season. The playoffs were not included.

Here are the results....

----------------------------------------

In 2006 the system went 6-2 ATS.

Week 1 - Seahawks @ Lions (+6) WIN
Week 2 - Raiders @ Ravens (-12.5) WIN
Week 4 - Chargers @ Ravens (-1) WIN
Week 10 - Chargers @ Bengals (+1) LOSS
Week 13 - Chargers @ Bills (+5.5) WIN
Week 14 - Raiders @ Bengals (-10.5) WIN
Week 17 - Raiders @ Jets (-13) WIN
Week 17 - Seahawks @ Buccaneers (-3) LOSS

----------------------------------------

In 2007 the system went 10-2 ATS, including 2 home dogs going 2-0 SU.

Week 3 - 49ers @ Steelers (-10) WIN
Week 4 - Raiders @ Dolphins (-3.5) LOSS
Week 5 - Seahawks @ Steelers (-5.5) WIN
Week 7 - 49ers @ Giants (-9.5) WIN
Week 9 - 49ers @ Falcons (-3.5) WIN
Week 11 - Chargers @ Jaguars (-3) WIN
Week 13 - 49ers @ Panthers (-3) WIN
Week 13 - Seahawks @ Eagles (-3) LOSS
Week 15 - Seahawks @ Panthers (+7) WIN {SU}
Week 16 - Raiders @ Jaguars (-14) WIN
Week 17 - Seahawks @ Falcons (+2) WIN {SU}
Week 17 - 49ers @ Browns (-11.5) WIN

----------------------------------------

In 2008 the system is currently 3-1 ATS, including 1 home dog winning SU.

Week 1 - Seahawks @ Bills (-1) WIN
Week 3 - Raiders @ Bills (-10) LOSS
Week 5 Chargers @ Dolphins (+6.5) WIN {SU}
Week 5 - Seahawks @ Giants (-7) WIN
Week 7 - Chargers @ Bills
Week 7 - 49ers @ Giants
Week 7 - Seahawks @ Buccaneers
Week 8 - Raiders @ Ravens
Week 10 - Seahawks @ Dolphins
Week 11 - Raiders @ Dolphins
Week 13 - 49ers @ Bills
Week 15 - 49ers @ Dolphins
Week 17 - Raiders @ Buccaneers

----------------------------------------

In the last 3 years, it's posting a 19-5 ATS record.

Let's hope these results continue and we can all cash in!!!

GL
 
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Posted: #2
Nice work king-of-diamond.  Thanks... Check out my NHL 3 game home chase thread.  It's currently 9-0
 
Boy the guys who make up the schedule really must dislike the 49ers..
 
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Posted: #3
i thought the same thing and they're my team.  at least now i can use that as the reason as to why they sucked so bad the past couple years. 
 
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Posted: #4
this week (week 7) should not include the seahawks @ buccaneers.  it does not fit the system.  the system in only for games being played at 1:00 (eastern time).  my mistake.  GL
 
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Posted: #5
The Cardinals should be on your list  because they are on west coast time until the end of Daylight Saving Time, or November 2, this year. The state of Arizona doesn't use DTS, so the clocks never change.
 
The Cardinals are 0-2 so far this season on the east coast. At Carolina, on the 26th, or Week 8 should be a play.
 
Thanks, for sharing!
 
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Posted: #6
Isnt it 7-2 this season?
Please look here.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100257630


PS: Please dont make it public or vegas will wake up.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by SawyerThePunter:

Isnt it 7-2 this season?
Please look here.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100257630


PS: Please dont make it public or vegas will wake up.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by SawyerThePunter:

Isnt it 7-2 this season?
Please look here.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100257630


PS: Please dont make it public or vegas will wake up.

I couldn't agree more.

 
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Posted: #9
system holds true in week 7. 
 
2-0 today.
 
now 5-1 on the season.
 
Week 1 - Seahawks @ Bills (-1) WIN
Week 3 - Raiders @ Bills (-10) LOSS
Week 5 Chargers @ Dolphins (+6.5) WIN {SU}
Week 5 - Seahawks @ Giants (-7) WIN
Week 7 - Chargers @ Bills (-1) WIN
Week 7 - 49ers @ Giants (-10.5) WIN
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #10
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Are you guys still tracking this system?? Let me know
 
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Posted: #12
it's lost the last 3 weeks.....
 
 
In 2008 the system is currently 6-4 ATS, including 1 home dog winning SU.

Week 1 - Seahawks @ Bills (-1) WIN
Week 3 - Raiders @ Bills (-10) LOSS
Week 5 Chargers @ Dolphins (+6.5) WIN {SU}
Week 5 - Seahawks @ Giants (-7) WIN
Week 7 - Chargers @ Bills (-1) WIN
Week 7 - 49ers @ Giants (-10.5) WIN
Week 8 - Raiders @ Ravens (-8.5) WIN
Week 10 - Seahawks @ Dolphins (-8) LOSS
Week 11 - Raiders @ Dolphins (-10) LOSS * Raiders also fit the DDD system *
Week 13 - 49ers @ Bills (-6.5) LOSS
Week 15 - 49ers @ Dolphins
Week 17 - Raiders @ Buccaneers

----------------------------------------

In the last 3 years, it's posting a 22-8 ATS record.
 
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Posted: #13
Yea, but if you look at the records of the chargers, raiders, 49ers and seahawks, they all have a losing record. Both the NFC West and AFc West have been weak divisions over the last three years, with the second place team never having more than 9 wins. West coast teams play weak competition in their divisional games. The talent level and records of weat coast teams are bad, so they are more likely to lose any game, compared to teams from other divisions or geographic locations. The East coast teams such as the teams in the NFC East, NFc South, etc, have had good home field advantages or good records over the last three years, Giants,, Panthers, Bucs, Eagles, Jaguars, etc. More to do with talent tha the time zone factor because teams arrive a few days in advance to prepare for a game. If they can't beat jet lag on their own, they could sleep earlier, set their alarm clocks to get up in time, etc.
 
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Posted: #14
Also if this theory was true, that time zone makes a difference, then what about basketball where teams travel every day. College basketball games on weekends start at 1 pm on the east coast. When San Jose State plays at Boston College or Portland plays at Syracuse, why aren't they at the same disadvantage. NHL also plays 1 pm east coast time games. And why can't players adjust to wake up earlier, if a 1 pm game feels like 10 am then set your alarm clock three hours ahead so it will feel like the time it should be, and they'll wake up for the game in time.
 
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Posted: #15
it has to do with your body clock.  you can set your alarm to anytime you want, but your body has an internal clock and that's what doesn't catch up. 
 
also, there is an advantage in those other sports as well. it's just more apparent in the nfl because there's only one game a week.  in those other sports, they travel much more frequently.  it should def be something you take into consideration with your capping, especially in the nba.
 
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Posted: #16
Yes, but you still have to consider the disparity between the west coast teams and their records compared to the nfl in general. You can't ignore the fact all four teams have a losing record. I know what you mean by body clock, because I have a similar problem. I have trouble sleeping and getting up early, I'm a student and avoid morning classes because of the time. But the point it that there is a way to become better adjusted to your body clock. Sleep cycles can be changed by waking or sleeping earlier for a period of time. I went from sleeping at 1am or  2 am to going to bed by midnight at the latest. I wake up 1 to 2 hours earlier as a result. NFL players in much better shape can do the same. They can choose to sleep earlier and not be partying at a club all night before a game.
 
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Posted: #17
I believe in 2004 and 2005 the records were about even.  I will dig back those two years to post.  Yes, I agree over the long haul it appears this is a profitable angle.  However, you have to discount one of the Cardinals games this year because if I remember correctly, earlier in the season, I beleive it was their game in Philadelphia - they stayed on the east coast the entire week and the players used it as a "vacation".  What happened?  They still got blown out.  So they had ample time to adjust to the time difference. 
 
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Posted: #18
I have gone back to the 2002-2005 schedules of the four West Coast teams.  These do not account for the times the games were played or the dates they were played (one or more may have been played on a Monday night).  If someone can verify the times to add more validity to the ATS records that would really help.  Also, I indicate the game number not the week that they played, since my schedules do not indicate byes.  Hope some of the losses are filtered out.....  Have fun!


2002 (4-5)

Gm 1 - SD @ CIN  W 34-6  W +2.5 (LOSS)
Gm 1 - SF @ NYG  W 16-13  L -3.5  (WIN)
Gm 2 - OAK @ PIT  W 30-17  W +3.5  (LOSS)
Gm 3 - SEA @ NYG  L 6-9  W +6  (LOSS)
Gm 4 - OAK @ BUF W 49-31  W -3  (LOSS)
Gm 11 - SD @ MIA  L 3-30  L +3.5  (WIN)
Gm 14 - SD @ BUF  L 13-20  L +3  (WIN)
Gm 14 - OAK @ MIA  L 17-23  L +1.5 (WIN)
Gm 14 - SEA @ ATL  W 30-24  W +9.5  (LOSS)


2003 (8-3-2)

Gm 5 - SD @ JAX  L 21-27  L +3  (WIN)
Gm 6 - SD @ CLE  W 26-20  W +5  (LOSS)
Gm 7 - OAK @ CLE  L 7-13  L +3  (WIN)
Gm 7 - SEA @ CIN  L 24-27  L -2.5  (WIN)
Gm 9 - OAK @ DET  L 13-23  L -3  (WIN)
Gm 9 - SEA @ WSH  L 20-27  L -3.5  (WIN)
Gm 11 - SEA @ BAL  L 41-44  T +3  (PUSH)
Gm 12 - SF @ BAL  L 6-44  L +3  (WIN)
Gm 13 - OAK @ PIT  L 7-27  L +5.5  (WIN)
Gm 13 - SD @ DET  W 14-7  W +3  (LOSS)
Gm 14 - SF @ CIN  L 38-41  T +3  (PUSH)
Gm 15 - SD @ PIT  L 24-40  L +6.5  (WIN)
Gm 15 - SF @ PHI  W 31-28  W +7  (LOSS)


2004 (6-8)

Gm 1 - OAK @ PIT  L 21-24  W +3.5  (LOSS)
Gm 2 - SEA @ TB  W 10-6  W -3  (LOSS)
Gm 5 - OAK @ IND  L 14-35  L +9  (WIN)
Gm 5 - SEA @ NE  L 20-30  L +4  (WIN)
Gm 6 - SD @ ATL  L 20-21  W +4.5  (LOSS)
Gm 6 - SF @ NYJ  L 14-22  W +10  (LOSS)
Gm 7 - SD @ CAR  W 17-6  W +3  (LOSS)
Gm 9 - OAK @ CAR  W 27-24  W +6.5  (LOSS)
Gm 10 - SF @ TB  L 3-35  L +7.5  (WIN)
Gm 13 - OAK @ ATL  L 10-35  L +7.5  (WIN)
Gm 14 - SD @ CLE  W 21-0  W -9.5  (LOSS)
Gm 14 - SEA @ NYJ  L 14-37  L +6.5  (WIN)
Gm 15 - SD @ IND  L 31-34  W +7  (LOSS)
Gm 16 - SF @ NE  L 7-21  L +13.5  (WIN)


2005 (8-7)

Gm 1 - OAK @ NE  L 20-30  L +7  (WIN)
Gm 1 - SEA @ JAX  L 14-26  L +3  (WIN)
Gm 2 - SF @ PHI  L 3-42  L +13  (WIN)
Gm 3 - OAK @ PHI  L 20-23  L +8.5  (WIN)
Gm 4 - SD @ NE  W 41-17  W +4.5  (LOSS)
Gm 4 - SEA @ WSH  L 17-20  L +2  (WIN)
Gm 6 - SF @ WSH  L 17-52  L +13.5  (WIN)
Gm 7 - SD @ PHI  L 17-20  W +3.5  (LOSS)
Gm 9 - SD @ NYJ  W 31-26  L -6  (WIN)
Gm 10 - OAK @ WSH  W 16-13  W +6  (LOSS)
Gm 11 - SD @ WSH  W 23-17  W -3.5  (LOSS)
Gm 12 - SEA @ PHI  W 42-0  W -3.5  (LOSS)
Gm 13 - OAK @ NYJ  L 10-26  L  -3  (WIN)
Gm 14 - SD @ IND  W 26-17  W +7  (LOSS)
Gm 14 - SF @ JAX  L 9-10  W +16  (LOSS)
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by usakangy:

I believe in 2004 and 2005 the records were about even.  I will dig back those two years to post.  Yes, I agree over the long haul it appears this is a profitable angle.  However, you have to discount one of the Cardinals games this year because if I remember correctly, earlier in the season, I beleive it was their game in Philadelphia - they stayed on the east coast the entire week and the players used it as a "vacation".  What happened?  They still got blown out.  So they had ample time to adjust to the time difference. 

Correction... It was the week between their games with the Redskins on 9/21 and the Jets on 9/28.  Jets blew them out. 
 
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Posted: #20

 This works best in the late months when there are temperature changes. Another method that works is when warm weather teams travel to cold weather places. You must check the temperature .40 degrees would be about right. When Tampa Bay was in the same league as Det, Chi, and Minn that went about 20 years without winning a game ever in cold weather!!

  Also play teams that are on pace to win less than 1/3 of their games when they travel long distances and are playing stronger teams. (college).  Use last year's record early on. It hits 70% of the time.

      

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by patriotsfan1:

Yes, but you still have to consider the disparity between the west coast teams and their records compared to the nfl in general. You can't ignore the fact all four teams have a losing record. I know what you mean by body clock, because I have a similar problem. I have trouble sleeping and getting up early, I'm a student and avoid morning classes because of the time. But the point it that there is a way to become better adjusted to your body clock. Sleep cycles can be changed by waking or sleeping earlier for a period of time. I went from sleeping at 1am or  2 am to going to bed by midnight at the latest. I wake up 1 to 2 hours earlier as a result. NFL players in much better shape can do the same. They can choose to sleep earlier and not be partying at a club all night before a game.

it's not just about adjusting your sleeping patterns and going to bed earlier.  it has to do with crossing time zones and feeling jet lag. 

i agree that the teams in the west are weak and that should be considered, no doubt.

and i didn't include the cardinals because they are not a true west coast team.  in arizona, they don't change their clocks for daylight svaings time. so, part of the year they are on west coast time and the rest of the time they are in the mountain time zone.  it was too difficult to go back and track their games and when they were played (before or after DST). 

 
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Posted: #22

You said that crossing time zones and jet lag play a factor and I agree. It does contribute to fatigue the minute they get off the plane. We both seem to agree on this fact. The reason they are tired is because their bodies feel it is 3 hours earlier (for west coast teams). I still don't get why players who arrive for a road game three days in advance can't adjust to the new time. If on the first night, they sleep for 3 hours more or 3 hours earlier or whatever to get adjusted, then they'll feel better the next morning. If they feel tired when waking up, go back to sleep and get referehed. If jet lag is such a factor, hold your first practice three hours later, and by game time, players should be refreshed.  

 
 
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Posted: #23
would there be a better ATS record of we ended up buying 3 points for the east coast team?
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