NBA Totals System - 180 to 192

Picked up a system from Citybeats today.  He mentioned he read an article that a capper said this system hits 70% or better. 

Here it is: Bet on games where the home is the favorite and the total is between 180 and 192.

Take the home team's spread and subtract it from the total.

If the total comes 180 or higher, bet the Under.
If the total comes 179 or lower, bet the Over.

Example Heat home to the Wizards.  Total 189.  Heat favored by 7:  189-7 = 182 so the play is under.

So far this year it's 12-8 with like 3 real close calls...like by 1/2 point or 1 point.

I played all 4 games that fell within the system tonight and went
3-1.

DET- ORL - OVER 191
OKC-HOU - UNDER 185.5
MIL- MIN - UNDER 189
SA-POR - UNDER 185.5

I will do my best to keep track of this, looks ok so far.  Doesn't look like there are any games that fall within the system tomorrow.  If anyone is willing to check to see how it did last year please by all means.

Updated Total: 15-9 @ 63%

If it were only that easy we would all be rich! I tested it against Nov of last year and it was 50/50. If you want, test the rest of the year but I am pretty sure it will be close to 50/50 overall.

Thanks scotty.  I should pm Citybeats and ask if he can dig up this 'article'.

My mistake.  You must use the OPENING LINES ONLY.

Tonight DET-ORL would have been a NO PLAY because it opened at 194.

Also NJ-PH opened at -12 and 190.5 so that should have been an OVER play.  Barely hit at 191 too.

So it still went 3-1 tonight with the correction.  No games with the opening lines fall within the system Saturday.

The other I checked prior to tonight that went 12-8 were the CLOSING LINES so no good.

Let's just start fresh from tonight and say it's 3-1 so far.

on 11/4/2009 this system went 0-3

 

I wouldnt put to much faith in trying to win money using something like this.

It actually went 0-1 on Wednesday.  Only 1 game qualified that day.  Remember its only when the home team is favored.  I'm sure you lumped the BOS-MIN game in there and I don't know what third game you are referring to cd329.

Here are the updated totals throughout the year.  So far it's 11-7

I used the opening lines of Pinnacle.  Remember OPENING LINES for spread and total ONLY.  Here are the games listed with the updated record to the right.

OCT 27
BOS@CLE -5 187 1-0
HOU@POR -9 187.5 1-1

OCT 28
NO@SA -8.5 185 2-1
CHAR@BOX -10.5 185 2-2

OCT 30
CHI@BOS -11 187 3-2

OCT 31
DET@MIL -2 187.5 4-2
CHA@CLE -13 183.5 4-3
POR@HOU -4 185.5 4-4

NOV 1
NO@BOS -10 183.5 5-4
POR@OKC -2 186.5 6-4

NOV 3
ATL@POR -7 189 7-4
MIL@CHI -8 192 8-4

NOV 4
DAL@NO -4 189.5 8-5

NOV 5
CHI@CLE -11.5 186.5 8-6

NOV 6
MIL@MIN -2 185 9-6
SA@POR -3 184 10-6
NJ@PHI -12.5 190.5 11-6
OKC@HOU -6 190 11-7

Like I said, I backtested from Nov of last year only and it went 50/50. I can't imagine something like this working in the long run. It's way too simple and we would all be rich. Could you imagine going 70% or better? LOL It will never happen.

I know Scotty, I don't make the news I just report it.

Anyway, tomorrow we got 1 play so far:

MIN@POR -13.5 185.5 Play is OVER.

Back with more as they become available.

Another hit: MIN@POR over 185.5

On the year: 12-7 @ 63%

No plays tomorrow, no total with the home team favored opened between 180-92.

One game tomorrow so far:

WAS@MIA -6.5 186.5

186.5 - 6.5 = 180 the play is UNDER 186.5

Something weird going on..Covers has WAS-MIA @ 187.5 yet 5dimes has it at 183.5.  Is there an injury anyone knows about?

The play is still the under because it opened at 186.5 with MIA at a 6.5 favorite.

Could use those extra 3 points.

i think this system may actually work.  keep posting and we'll find out.

Thanks Boyz.  I don't know about the validity or credibility of the article that quoted the NBA capper that noticed this system, but all we can do is post the plays and see what happens.

I'll monitor this, but I have my doubts as it appears to easy but hey if it works...I'm all for it

Winner tonight:  WAS@MIA Under 186.5

Overall: 13-7 @ 65%

 thanks

So OKC/Clippers tonight is Under

So today's plays are Utah/Boston Over, Orlando/Cle Under, and OKC/LAC Under?

opening boston line is 10 1/2      that would make this an under play right?

Correct.

1-1-1 tonight.  Please note getting the opening line is so important as you saw in the BOS game.  I lost the BOS game because I got lazy and took it late at 189 and loss the ORL game.  Knowing this system has been pretty solid I thought the LAC game had a good chance of going under so I tripled up on it and ended up with a profit despite the two losses. 

Updated total:

14-8-1

No plays tomorrow.

Friday's only play is:

NJ@ORL OVER 189.5

Given NJ's complete ineptitude and ORL probably not caring about this game, that total could well go under.  I would advise waiting and see if the line does go down and hit the over then.  It's already down .5 at my book.