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MLB Underdog Consensus System

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Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 58
Posted: #1
Just decided to do this for fun, but it's surprisingly off to a great start.  If anyone wants to expand or tweak anything, feel free.  Just make sure to tell us what the hell your doing and track it to see if it works.  Basically, using good 'ol wagerline.com, I'm trying this:

I'm using the consensus of the top 10% of players for MLB.  In it, I'm taking all the underdogs that have over 50% consensus and have a +moneyline (in hopes that it'll cover the losses in the longrun).  A few days in, and I have this so far:

*All bets are a standard 100 units*

MLB Picks (Via Consensus of Top 10%)

4.5.09

No Picks

0 units (+0 units)

4.6.09

Texas (+102) W

LA Dodgers (+118) W

+220 units (+220 units)

4.7.09

No Picks                      

0 units (+220 units)

4.8.09

Texas (+107) W

NY Mets (+110) W

+217 units (+437 units)

4.9.09

No Picks

0 units (+437 units)

4.10.09

Florida (+111) W

+111 units (+548 units)

4.11.09

Texas (+148)

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 58
Posted: #2
Also wanted to tell you that the best time to look at the consensus is about an hour before the first game starts (noonish if a 1pm game is on)  I just took a look back and Texas is no longer on the majority side, however NYM (+129), TB (+104), and CHW (+101) is.  So just be aware of this factor.
 
Rookie
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Joined: Jan, 2007
Posts: 576
Posted: #3
Underdogs hit at a profitable rate at the beginning of every season.  There is an individual that has part of his system designed around this concept, and using this part of his system, your bankroll would be up almost 29%.  While his system has ended, if you continue to use this concept throughout the season, you will see a drastic shift as the good teams begin to separate themselves from the bad.
 
Covers Rehab
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Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 1218
Posted: #4
dogs are 50% so far this season, which is very high.  They will end up around 41-43%.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #5
As I said before, teams are going to change based on last minute wager-ers.  But here are the results for the past 2 days:

4.11.09

NY Mets (+133) W

Tampa Bay (+110) L

Chi W Sox (+108) W

Oakland (+104) L

LA Dodgers (+110) W

Philadelphia (+100) W

+251 units (+799 units) 

4.12.09

Philadelphia (+119) W

+119 units (+918 units)


~ Tomorrows front-runners are looking to be The New York Yankees & Toronto Blue Jays.

 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #6
Here's the results and picks for tonight:


4.13.09

Toronto (+122) W

St. Louis (+100) W

+222 units (+1140 units)

4.14.09

Toronto (+113)

NY Yankees (+110)

 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #7
Last night was the least profitable so far this season when teams were picked.  However, we still came out on the positive end.  Here are the results from last night and teams for tonight:

4.14.09

Toronto (+113) L

NY Yankees (+110) W

+10 units (+1150 units)

4.15.09

Kansas City

Toronto

ST. Louis

 
Rookie
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Posts: 763
Posted: #8
Looks like just Toronto and KC for today
 
Prospect
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Posts: 328
Posted: #9
St Louis was an even money dog today. Picks are 13-3 though 4-14. Something to keep an eye on for sure.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #10
kbguster - I used the consensus in the same way you did except played the run line on home favorites only with top ten consensus > 50% as you did.  Results from start of MLB season are +860 units.    If you filter out home favs going off at -200 ML and above and any run line above +170, the results are even better at +1475 units (30-28).   I had to estimate on the run lines based on the money line so there is definitely room for error but even if you factor that out the results are impressive.    I am going to post this to another thread and track it....
 
Rookie
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Posted: #11
4.15.2009
 
KC +124 L 
Toronto +141  W
Stl  -101   W              +117 (+1267 units)
 
4.16.2009
 
Fla +115 W                +115 (+1382 units)
 
4.17.209
 
SD +160
 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #12
I like it Manifesto...you and I will be buying condos on the beach before we know it.  haha.  Anyways, here's the system picks and results from last night:


4.16.09

Florida (+115) W

+115 units (+1405 units)

4.17.09

LA Angels

San Diego

Baltimore


I gotta tell ya....after watching SD beat my mets this week, they look pretty solid.  so +160 is a bargain!  Good luck.

 
Rookie
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Posted: #13
Baltimore looks like 49% on consensus...does not qualify, correct?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #14
guys, you mean + 14.05 right? no point in betting 100 units every time, just make it 1 every time to keep things simple
 
Prospect
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Posts: 58
Posted: #15
Correct.  I was just coming back to scratch that.  But LA & SD are still good and well over 50%.  
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
yeah. +14.5.  which ever way you'd like.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #17
SD +155 W
Baltimore +133 L              +14.27 units
 
4.18.09
 
Stl +122
Cincy +114
LAA +114
Atl +101
 
Rookie
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Posts: 777
Posted: #18
i backtested this system for last year and u woulda lost money. Good luck>>>so far so good.
 
Rookie
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Posted: #19
Updated:
 
4.18.09
 
Az +150
Stl +122
Cincy +114
LAA +114
 
Rookie
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Posted: #20
4.18.09
 
Az +150  W
Stl +122  L
Cincy +114  L
LAA +114  L         + 12.77 units
 
4.19.09
 
Mil +141
Bal +188
Col +106
KC +120
 
Rookie
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Posted: #21
4.19.09
 
Mil +141  W
Bal +188  L
Col +106  L
KC +120  L         +11.18 units
 
4.20.09
 
SD +143
Cincy +122
Col +110
 
Rookie
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Posted: #22
4.20.09
 
SD +143  Ppd
Cincy +122  W
Col +110  L            +11.40 Units
 
4.21.09
 
Col   +109
Det  +103
 
Rookie
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Posts: 763
Posted: #23
4.21.09
 
Col   +109  W
Det  +103   L       +11.46 units
 
4.22.09
 
KC +180
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
I'm sorry it's been a while since I've posted.  Between work and Finals coming up, I've been a bit busy.  However, I have been keeping track of the results, so here they are:


4.17.09

LA Angels (+108) L

San Diego (+156) W

+56 units (+1461 units)

4.18.09

Arizona (+150) W

St. Louis (+127) L

LA Angels (+121) L

Cincinnati (+115) L

-150 units (+1311 units)

4.19.09

Pittsburgh (+106) L

Milwaukee (+129) W

Baltimore (+180) L

Kansas City (+134) L

Colorado (+105) L

-271 units (+1040 units)

4.20.09

No Picks

0 units (+1040 units)

4.21.09

Chi White Sox (+104) L

Colorado (+113) W

+13 units (+1053 units)

4.22.09

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Kanas City

LA Dodgers


My man Manifesto has also been tracking a similar strategy in the same forum (hence our slight variation).  Good luck everyone!!

 
 
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Posted: #25
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