MLB Underdog Consensus System

Question

Just decided to do this for fun, but it&#x27;s surprisingly off to a great start. &#xA0;If anyone wants to expand or tweak anything, feel free. &#xA0;Just make sure to tell us what the hell your doing and track it to see if it works. &#xA0;Basically, using good &#x27;ol wagerline.com, I&#x27;m trying this:I&#x27;m using the consensus of the top 10% of players for MLB. &#xA0;In it, I&#x27;m taking all the underdogs that have over 50% consensus and have a &#x2B;moneyline (in hopes that it&#x27;ll cover the losses in the longrun). &#xA0;A few days in, and I have this so far:*All bets are a standard 100 units*MLB Picks (Via Consensus of Top 10%)&#x9;&#xD;&#xA;4.5.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;0 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.6.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;102) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA Dodgers (&#x2B;118) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;220 units (&#x2B;220 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.7.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0;&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;220 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.8.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;107) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;NY Mets (&#x2B;110) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;217 units (&#x2B;437 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.9.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;437 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.10.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Florida (&#x2B;111) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;111 units (&#x2B;548 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.11.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;148)

kbguster · Answer

Just decided to do this for fun, but it&#x27;s surprisingly off to a great start. &#xA0;If anyone wants to expand or tweak anything, feel free. &#xA0;Just make sure to tell us what the hell your doing and track it to see if it works. &#xA0;Basically, using good &#x27;ol wagerline.com, I&#x27;m trying this:I&#x27;m using the consensus of the top 10% of players for MLB. &#xA0;In it, I&#x27;m taking all the underdogs that have over 50% consensus and have a &#x2B;moneyline (in hopes that it&#x27;ll cover the losses in the longrun). &#xA0;A few days in, and I have this so far:*All bets are a standard 100 units*MLB Picks (Via Consensus of Top 10%)&#x9;&#xD;&#xA;4.5.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;0 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.6.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;102) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA Dodgers (&#x2B;118) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;220 units (&#x2B;220 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.7.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0; &#xA0;&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;220 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.8.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;107) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;NY Mets (&#x2B;110) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;217 units (&#x2B;437 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.9.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;437 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.10.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Florida (&#x2B;111) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;111 units (&#x2B;548 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.11.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Texas (&#x2B;148)

kbguster · Answer

Also wanted to tell you that the best time to look at the consensus is about an hour before the first game starts (noonish if a 1pm game is on) &#xA0;I just took a look back and Texas is no longer on the majority side, however NYM (&#x2B;129), TB (&#x2B;104), and CHW (&#x2B;101) is. &#xA0;So just be aware of this factor.

prof8t · Answer

Underdogs hit at a profitable rate at the beginning of every season. &#xA0;There is an individual that has part of his system designed around this concept, and using this part of his system, your bankroll would be up almost 29%. &#xA0;While his system has ended, if you continue to use this concept throughout the season, you will see a drastic shift as the good teams begin to separate themselves from the bad.

Underdog11 · Answer

dogs are 50% so far this season, which is very high.  They will end up around 41-43%.

kbguster · Answer

As I said before, teams are going to change based on last minute wager-ers. &#xA0;But here are the results for the past 2 days:4.11.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;NY Mets (&#x2B;133) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Tampa Bay (&#x2B;110) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Chi W Sox (&#x2B;108) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Oakland (&#x2B;104) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA Dodgers (&#x2B;110) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Philadelphia (&#x2B;100) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;251 units (&#x2B;799 units)&#xA0;&#xD;&#xA;4.12.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Philadelphia (&#x2B;119) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;119 units (&#x2B;918 units)~ Tomorrows front-runners are looking to be The New York Yankees &amp; Toronto Blue Jays.

kbguster · Answer

Here&#x27;s the results and picks for tonight:4.13.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Toronto (&#x2B;122) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;St. Louis (&#x2B;100) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;222 units (&#x2B;1140 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.14.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Toronto (&#x2B;113)&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;NY Yankees (&#x2B;110)

kbguster · Answer

Last night was the least&#xA0;profitable&#xA0;so far this season when teams were picked. &#xA0;However, we still came out on the positive end. &#xA0;Here are the results from last night and teams for tonight:4.14.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Toronto (&#x2B;113) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;NY Yankees (&#x2B;110) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;10 units (&#x2B;1150 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.15.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Kansas City&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Toronto&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;ST. Louis

manifesto · Answer

Looks like just Toronto and KC for today

jhudd70 · Answer

St Louis was an even money dog today. Picks are 13-3 though 4-14. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

manifesto · Answer

kbguster - I used the consensus in the same way you did except played the run line on home favorites only with top ten consensus &gt; 50% as you did.  Results from start of MLB season are &#x2B;860 units.    If you filter out home favs going off at -200 ML and above and any run line above &#x2B;170, the results are even better at &#x2B;1475 units (30-28).   I had to estimate on the run lines based on the money line so there is definitely room for error but even if you factor that out the results are impressive.    I am going to post this to another thread and track it....

manifesto · Answer

4.15.2009&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;KC &#x2B;124 L  &#xD;&#xA;Toronto &#x2B;141  W&#xD;&#xA;Stl  -101   W              &#x2B;117 (&#x2B;1267 units)&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.16.2009&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Fla &#x2B;115 W                &#x2B;115 (&#x2B;1382 units)&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.17.209&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;SD &#x2B;160

kbguster · Answer

I like it Manifesto...you and I will be buying condos on the beach before we know it. haha. Anyways, here's the system picks and results from last night:

4.16.09

Florida (+115) W

+115 units (+1405 units)

4.17.09

LA Angels

San Diego

Baltimore

I gotta tell ya....after watching SD beat my mets this week, they look pretty solid. so +160 is a bargain! Good luck.

manifesto · Answer

Baltimore looks like 49% on consensus...does not qualify, correct?

elithepunk · Answer

guys, you mean &#x2B; 14.05 right? no point in betting 100 units every time, just make it 1 every time to keep things simple

kbguster · Answer

Correct. &#xA0;I was just coming back to scratch that. &#xA0;But LA &amp; SD are still good and well over 50%.

kbguster · Answer

yeah. &#x2B;14.5. &#xA0;which ever way you&#x27;d like.

manifesto · Answer

SD &#x2B;155 W&#xD;&#xA;Baltimore &#x2B;133 L              &#x2B;14.27 units&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.18.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Stl &#x2B;122&#xD;&#xA;Cincy &#x2B;114&#xD;&#xA;LAA &#x2B;114&#xD;&#xA;Atl &#x2B;101

King Creole42 · Answer

i backtested this system for last year and u woulda lost money. Good luck&gt;&gt;&gt;so far so good.

manifesto · Answer

Updated:&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.18.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Az &#x2B;150&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Stl &#x2B;122&#xD;&#xA;Cincy &#x2B;114&#xD;&#xA;LAA &#x2B;114

manifesto · Answer

4.18.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Az &#x2B;150  W&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Stl &#x2B;122  L&#xD;&#xA;Cincy &#x2B;114  L&#xD;&#xA;LAA &#x2B;114  L         &#x2B; 12.77 units&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.19.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Mil &#x2B;141&#xD;&#xA;Bal &#x2B;188&#xD;&#xA;Col &#x2B;106&#xD;&#xA;KC &#x2B;120

manifesto · Answer

4.19.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Mil &#x2B;141  W&#xD;&#xA;Bal &#x2B;188  L&#xD;&#xA;Col &#x2B;106  L&#xD;&#xA;KC &#x2B;120  L         &#x2B;11.18 units&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.20.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;SD &#x2B;143&#xD;&#xA;Cincy &#x2B;122&#xD;&#xA;Col &#x2B;110

manifesto · Answer

4.20.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;SD &#x2B;143  Ppd&#xD;&#xA;Cincy &#x2B;122  W&#xD;&#xA;Col &#x2B;110  L            &#x2B;11.40 Units&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.21.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Col   &#x2B;109&#xD;&#xA;Det  &#x2B;103

manifesto · Answer

4.21.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Col   &#x2B;109  W&#xD;&#xA;Det  &#x2B;103   L       &#x2B;11.46 units&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;4.22.09&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;KC &#x2B;180

kbguster · Answer

I&#x27;m sorry it&#x27;s been a while since I&#x27;ve posted. &#xA0;Between work and Finals coming up, I&#x27;ve been a bit busy. &#xA0;However, I have been keeping track of the results, so here they are:4.17.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA Angels (&#x2B;108) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;San Diego (&#x2B;156) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;56 units (&#x2B;1461 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.18.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Arizona (&#x2B;150) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;St. Louis (&#x2B;127) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA Angels (&#x2B;121) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Cincinnati (&#x2B;115) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;-150 units (&#x2B;1311 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.19.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Pittsburgh (&#x2B;106) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Milwaukee (&#x2B;129) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Baltimore (&#x2B;180) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Kansas City (&#x2B;134) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Colorado (&#x2B;105) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;-271 units (&#x2B;1040 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.20.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;No Picks&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;0 units (&#x2B;1040 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.21.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Chi White Sox (&#x2B;104) L&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Colorado (&#x2B;113) W&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x9;&#x2B;13 units (&#x2B;1053 units)&#xD;&#xA;4.22.09&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;St. Louis&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Pittsburgh&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;Kanas City&#xD;&#xA;&#x9;LA DodgersMy man Manifesto has also been tracking a similar strategy in the same forum (hence our slight variation). &#xA0;Good luck everyone!!

MLB Underdog Consensus System

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