MLB Betting System

Hello,

I am new to this forum and this is my first time posting here. I just wanted a place to post my system and its results. This system is a 3 game chase system for baseball. I have a working draft, but am still straightening out the kinks. So, far this season as of 2 August 2008 it is 125-5.

From research that I done with other years this is a very good year for this system.

The system is pretty simple for the most part. It selects a team who sweeps its opponent then picks them to win one game in their next home game series.

So far some of the kinks that can be worked out include short series. Only play on three game series or four game series but only the first three games of the four game series; only play if the next home game series is a three or four game series, not two games; be cautious when picking a team in the beginning and the end of a season. If a team is on a cold streak, (they sweep a team then go on a road trip and lose 8 games in a row on the road, then become a system pick when they go home) do not play them.

The record 125 – 5 is straight up and includes plays from the kinks listed from this year. It won’t have much effect on this years result but may have more impact on previous year’s results.

 

I tried to post the results by game and I guess it's too big to post, so if anyone want to see the results just let me know and I might can email them or if anyone knows a place where I can upload them to online which will provide a link.

Up coming system plays (pick is the home team)

 

4 - 6 August BAL @ LAA

4 - 6 August PIT @ ARI

4 - 6 August WAS @ COL

5 - 7 August FLA @ PHI

Do You Have Any Picks For Today?

Tomorrow

No Problem.  So You'll Be Posting Them Before They Start, Correct?

Yes,

 

I'll try to post a day in advance if possible

God Bless You Buddy!

System Picks

4 – 6 August                       Cleveland @ Tampa Bay

11 – 13 August                   San Francisco @ Houston

12 – 14 August                   Texas @ Boston

12 – 14 August                   New York @ Washington

that is part of the basics of the Labourchere system. Using a four to six line betting system eg. 5-10-15-20 you would take the two end amounts(5+20) and that would be your bet...$25 dollars. If you win you cross out those two numbers and your next bet would be x-10-15-x....$25 again, but if you lose than you add the amount of the first bet to the end of the line, so now it looks something like this 5-10-15-20-25...therefore your bet on the next game is $30. You do this until you clear a line, and then you increase your next line by $5 increments, or however much you chose. Now your next line would look something like this 10-15-20-25. So your next bet would be (10+25) $35.

Where you are correct is you use a chase system and play for example (do not bet this it's just an example) Houston the next three games after they've been swept the previous series. All you have to do is win one of three games to turn a small profit. You will not make much money in the beginning because you will not play everyday. Only on days when new series starts. And there is always the chance, although highly unlikely, that a team will get swept a second time. You also have to be aggresive in your betting, and not be afraid to lose an ass-load every once in a while, but this is a very long term system that will turn a profit with time, patience, and by not altering things. Stick with the game plan.

There are some player and odds variables, and there is a great post explaining it better than I have by PCIS, who is quite an expert on sports-books. Read it, it is quite interesting.

Although I haven't tried it yet this system is near unbeatable with the NBA (watch out for crooked refs). Instead of a "series" of games I think it works with East coast teams against West Coast teams, but I'll have to read more on it.

 

Good luck,

Ed

Ok so I'm a little confused racinivan on the set up (if a road team sweeps someone then the very next series bet them to win one game at home?) It seems to obvious and this means your probably betting favorites which if you bet each game the one you win will have to counter the loss based on the line you get. For example if you say ride Bost. and on day 3 they win Dice-K is pitching then you pay -250 plus the money you lost 2 days prior, so hopefully I'm confused and you can clear this up for me. last question is why are those games above listed maybe that will help me did they sweep those teams at their homes already this year?

 

the teams above are system plays who have swept their opponents and are playing their first home game series since their sweep. It doesnot matter where they swept their opponents (home or away) I use the 3 game chase method. Select a target and wager for that target if it loses add losses and target together to obtain a new target. If it losses 3 times in a row then accept the loss. So far this season, I've only lost 5 times and won 125 times with all teams who meet the qualifications. This is just a system I use to "help" me pick a winner. It is not the answer to all, I never claimed it was. Just something I am tracking and use at opportuned times.

52% win first game

81.5% win game 1 or game 2

96% win either game 1, 2, "OR" game 3

4% lose all three games

 

This is a painful thread to read. Racinivan was simply talking about a 3-game chase using a Martingale betting style of doubling. He never mentioned Labourchere.

 

Eddie2112, the Labourchere is just a betting style that can be used for many different chases, like ALL betting styles. It is not the actual chase itself. I think you might be confused because PSIC also talked about a chase involving teams that got swept. I still don't understand why people need to visualize a line of numbers to calculate their next bet. There are better ways to go about betting chases.

 

Btw, the NBA version that you haven't tried yet is NOT "near unbeatable". From the data I've seen, it just happened to have it's best year last year but normally loses 3 or 4 a year at least.

 

Cityofpain, of course his percentages are higher than flipping a coin. He said he wins 52% of his games. A coin flip is 50%. Over 130 or so samples, that 2% is more than "slight" IMO. I feel if you need to eliminate teams from a chase or use filters, then you're asking for big trouble. Most people don't do enough homework to really know what to eliminate. You said you have data back to 1999, great, so maybe you have a good idea. Also maybe you're not referring to specific teams, but teams in certain situations.

 

As ethancraft said, for such a suddenly popular betting style, the Labourchere was tried on this site and failed miserably. To be fair, it failed because the chase itself was failing. No betting style can save a bad chase system but I firmly believe there are better alternatives. If you're betting -150 baseball lines, you're losing 50% more on your losses than your wins and that reaks havoc on the Labourchere. You can "clear your line", actually lose money, and then raise your units on the next line? No thanks.

 

For example, if you start with a line of 10-10-10-10 and you're betting lines of -150 (the type of chase in this thread would probably be more), if you lose the first game you HAVE to win two of the next three games or you cannot profit by clearing that line. If you have -200 juice, forget it.

 

Keep in mind, -150 lines are basically saying you have a 60% chance to win. If you happen to lose the first game, you need to go 67% on the next three (2 of 3) to profit on that line. I realize that scenario would give you a profit with a 2-2 record, but my point is, your profit window is small with Labourchere. Lose that first game at high juice, and you're in instant trouble. If that line gets long (5 bets at -150 per), you're losing money.

 

Cityofpain, do you have a log with this year's data of your chase that shows a profit with Labourchere? I'd like to see it.

 

Racinivan, sorry to hijack your thread. Please continue with your work. Thank you.

call it what you want to call it, its a chase, you dont need certain circumstances to bet, just pull teams from a hat and you will eventually hit when you are chasing, just have the bankroll to back it up. and the balls to do it. that is not handicapping, i'd like to cover all you knuckle heads' bets.

ha.  did you come up with this yourself?  because this is the exact system that john morrison uses.. and let me just tell you, it didn't work this season.   

i'm confuse. john morrison system is picking the loser out, and this thread is about pick the winner out from the swept. right?

from what I understand this is not the john morrison system.  john morrison system is when a team gets swept the next time those two teams play each other to bet the team that got swept. 

 

this system is if I understand it correctly to bet on on the team that got swept on the road or at home thye next time they play if they got swept at home or road makes no difference.  huge difference between this system and john morrisons.

looks like I misread some things I still don't think this is john moorrison system how ever what he;s trying to explain is this.  example :  if washington won all three games at home then bet on washington to win one of thier games next time they play at home  if the series is 3 or 4 games.  if washington wins on the road all three games then bet on washington too wwin next time they play on the road if the series is 3 or 4 games .  if I'm right he's describing the blackbelt system for the mlb but I could be wrong about this. indefinitly not the john morrison system.  

a couple of filters I would use for this system are too watch out for injuries and avoid playing teams below .475  don't play teams that lost  more than 5 if teams go on road for any extended time.