Home Team Series Opener Trend

Question

I have been tracking performance of home teams in series openers this season.   Playing either the run line if the team is favored or money line if the team is a dog and not playing favorites -200 or higher, so far this season the home team is 40 - 30 (58.5%).   Not too bad.   However, in terms of units, this trend would be up 28.2 units.    I am certain this must be an early season anomoly but I will continue to track it for a while and see what happens.    Only downside is you are putting a sizable amount at risk every third or fourth day.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If any of you stat guys can trend this over last season, I would be interested to see what the results would have been...

manifesto · Answer

I have been tracking performance of home teams in series openers this season.   Playing either the run line if the team is favored or money line if the team is a dog and not playing favorites -200 or higher, so far this season the home team is 40 - 30 (58.5%).   Not too bad.   However, in terms of units, this trend would be up 28.2 units.    I am certain this must be an early season anomoly but I will continue to track it for a while and see what happens.    Only downside is you are putting a sizable amount at risk every third or fourth day.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If any of you stat guys can trend this over last season, I would be interested to see what the results would have been...

JoshLewis · Answer

Never bet on a hometeam after a road trip. (Hometeam playing first game at home) Always bet on the 2nd game (specially if they lost the first one) Can't tell you how much money I made by this way..

You can track its record at covers.com. Click MLB and then click teams. You can backtest up to +10 seasons, Great!

JoshLewis · Answer

You found a good angle btw. I&#x27;ll track it too. Thanks!

manifesto · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by JoshLewis] Never bet on a hometeam after a road trip. (Hometeam playing first game at home) Always bet on the 2nd game (specially if they lost the first one) Can&#x27;t tell you how much money I made by this way..You can track its record at covers.com. Click MLB and then click teams. You can backtest up to &#x2B;10 seasons, Great!&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;It looks like first home game after a road trip is 11 - 11 for the season so far....that would still be profitable from a unit perspective for this system....but you are probably right as the teams get further into the season....

manifesto · Answer

Had a horrific day last Friday going 1 - 14, but bounced back nicely yesterday.   Overall 49 - 48 and plus 23 units.

manifesto · Answer

Now sitting at 55-58 for the season but still up 22 units....

Home Team Series Opener Trend

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