CREATING A BASEBALL LINE

rules: both starting pitchers must have pitched 40 innings or more.

play no game over -180

 

divide the avg. runs scored for( per game) for each team by their expected era.

to calculate era take 0.67% of the starting pitcher and 0.33% of available bullpen. add the 2 together to get final era.

 

divide runs scored by era=team index figure (do for both teams)

add the 2 index figures together.

take the team with the highest index fig. and divide that by the total index to get a winning %.

convert % to moneyline odds. add 17cents to home team.

possible wagers would be games that are 15 cents or more different than posted odds!

 

example:

nyy 5.72rs per game

st. pitcher era=3.14 bullpen=1.26 total era=4.40

 

bost rs 5.26 per game

st.pitcher era=2.74 bullpen=0.80 total era=3.54

 

nyy team index=1.30(5.72/4.40)

bost team index=1.48(5.26/3.54)

 

take 1.48/2.78=53.2%= -114(bost.fav.) add 17 cents for home fieid=bost.-131 fav.

convert to 8 cent line.  calc.= bost-135 nyy +127

 

it's funny thats what covers has this game at.

 

how many people have i confused!!!!

 

i'm using overall stats,not home and away.

 

i know a guy who won a baseball contest here in vegas using this system,that why i'm sharing with you.

 

i never took typing in high school so sorry about my format!

by the way todays plays are phil, and possibly oak.

i am using covers lines. just go into matchup for each game and all the info is there.

 

to convert a winning percentage, subtract the winning % from 100 and divide by that number.

for example:100-53.2=46.8

53.2 divided by 46.8= 113.6%.

rounded off= -114

 

i noticed both games have moved toward the system,so i'm going to track to see if is better to play opening lines.

these can be found in wagerline line moves

-131/+131 is the true line.

add 4 cents to the fav. and subtract 4 cents from the dog,thus bost would be -135 nyy +127. this is the vigorish you got to pay to the book.

system says oak -122 minn +114.

oak is-104 which is a play(16 cent difference)

it' a borderline call, however oak was +100 at opening. they would be a play unless the line moves against the last half hour or so

dog,this system is using yearly results so some of the lines this system is producing are way out of whack!!! for instance it says the mets should be -109 favs.the mets are beat up so adjustments have to be made for their injurys. i'll be talking to the guy who uses this system in a few days so we can fine tune it. anyways seatle looks good tonite. thanks for the interest!

back again!

new rules will be both starting pitchers must have pitched at least 70 innings(instead of 40). there e.r.a. will be more true to form.

 

todays play would be st.l     it opened at -124    system at -159

no doubt due to lorianos high era!!

 

not many plays today as many pitchers don't have 70 innings pitched.

 

we will track for a while. i'll try to post the top games each day !!

 

just curious what the base run sytem in this forum has this game at?

this system seems similar to that.

 

 

plays for 6-29:

     

tb +174 ( system+127)

sd +139 (system+ 114)

 

ytd 0-1   -124

 

good matchup tb-tor   best offense vs. best pitcher

plays for 6-30

 

kc +133(system -116)

 

plays for 07-01

 

oak +115 (system -116)

cinc -155 (system -197)

atl -104    (system -138)

 

curious if these opening lines move toward the  systems line or away!

 

ytd 1-2  -50

 

added play 07-01

 

sf +139

something fishy here as cain is alot better than wainwright.

line moved the other way!!

no plays on 07-02

 

plays for 07-03: bost -114

 

ytd. 4-4  +65  amt. bet 883  roi= 7.4%

play for 07-04

 

det +124