College Football Under (The Weather) System

Firstly, I have no idea how this is going to turn out. I just thought this would be a decent place to try and document some things.

Here is what I have on my mind...

I am going to try and exclusively find a system that hits the unders in NCAAF. How so?... exclusively off weather reports, field surfaces, line movement, and minimal logic.

The strongest of the plays, and probably the majority of them (don't know how I will post for sure yet) will be on games with a grass surface and projected rainy, stormy, snowy, or windy weather.

I understand that that posting these plays mid-end of the week (Wednesday-Thursday... maybe Friday if the line hasn't moved) is placing trust in the weather reports, which is also a risk. But I figure if they are right at least half the time, a majority of those should go under, and if the report is off, there is still a decent 50-50 chance of going under.

Let me know what you think, open to suggestions, criticism, idea, etc.

Strong Leans

Clemson U 43 -110
Tennessee U 44.5 -110
Virginia Tech U 47.5 -110

Decent Leans/Looking At Unders In:

Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Northwestern
Penn St
Kentucky
Kent St
Ohio State

Novel idea, wish you the best.

There are only 2 things which affect totals tho when it comes to weather.. wind, and snow.

You will not see major line movements with any other weather condition. Something to keep in mind.

Cheers 

Thanks kreatture, I know that heavy rainstorms and thunderstorms won't really move the line or anything, but I wonder if they have any correlation with going under on fields that are naturally grass. Like I said, it's just something I am curious about, might work, might not, but I never really read anything or researched anything that has disproved or approved of such a thing.

Well... like I said I have no idea how this is going to do, and this is only for documentation purposes.

Week 1 Results.

Strong Leans : 2-1
Other Leans: 6-3
Total: 8-4

Last week was quite successful..

Here are this week's games that fall under the criteria

Michigan State.. High Lean

Notre Dame ... Medium Lean
Stanford ... Medium Lean

Maryland... Low Lean
TCU ... Low Lean

Hmmm......... Good point

Freaky...... One thing I know is weather - like nobody's business
Could of been a meteorologist but I didn't want to be stuck in an office all day staring at computers..........

This is an interesting angle
If I may ask what would be your criteria weather wise as in:

precipitation and how much
what type (rain - sleet  - mix - freezing rain - snow)
wind speed and or direction
temperature
humidity
anything else
whether how much it would effect a passing off or a running off

of gauging an under in certain games

If I can help in any way I would be glad to
Knowing how to read the weather with a system like this I would assume is just as important as capping any other angle of a game

If you looked into it maybe weather forecasting is very difficult therefore making the slightest change or quick change in any weather pattern during or before the game can effect its outcome greatly so whatever can be done to filter out losses would be great.

On a side note I noticed in MLB this year with wind direction heading towards home plate had a fare share of under games.
Plenty of homerun balls just were hanging up in the air and came back down as outs........
I also noticed newly built MLB stadiums coincidentally were built like in Philly following the winds blowing out to give the balls extra lift to be home runs
Anything for a buck with these owners and leagues
All and all though I have no stats to back up my observations

May the Schwartz be with you.........

it depends how much rain is falling/fallen,and real grass gets muddy vs artificial.if its a high total its tempting to try the unders,but i do recall even games in heavy snowfall going over the number.i just play them for fun.

Montana.... hahah I really am not looking that in-depth into this right now. I mean at the moment I am keeping it as basic as possible, extremely basic. If it shows promise then I might ask for your expertise or you could join along or whatever. I do appreciate your willingness to help. Anything you could add or would add would be appreciated (I just don't have any suggestions haha)

Here is all I do..
1. I created a spreadsheet of all the Division 1 teams and their location, and playing surface types.

2. I type in the the home teams and then have Excel return their playing surface right next to the home team for ease of use.

3. For every game on being played on natural grass during the week, I look at the forecast for the city/area, for that time the game is going to take place.

For games on grass I just use the simple guidelines that if there is a really really good chance for rain it is a strong play, a really good chance for rain then a medium play, and a better than average chance for rain then a weak play.

Do the same thing with wind speeds for the natural grass games too.  A combination of a high chance of rain and high wind speeds would probably increase the lean on the play.

Games on anything other than natural grass, I completely forget about rain. That's just based on the assumption that its really not going to mess with the actually playing field.

Wind speeds are different though.. High wind speeds can create a play on any surface.

Well, snow hasn't come yet, so I don't have to worry about it right now. And humidity and all that other stuff is just to complicated right now at the moment.

Might point there was that a lot of this right now is just purely subjective on my part, but there is some basic structure behind why I am posting these certain plays.

I think this can be a simple but fun thread.

So last week, the first week of this was:
8-4 - total
2-1 - strong plays
4-2 - medium plays
2-1 - weak plays (these plays were posted as medium plays in a prior comment, but I just thought I would use 2 groups at the time, even though I had three, I decided I will move on with 3 groups)

Here is my basic breakdown for tomorrow's games: (and some reasoning to show where I'm coming from)



Michigan State/Michigan - Medium Play - Under 54
Game time: 12:00
Chance of rain from 11:00-4:00, constant 60%
Wind Speed from 11:00-4:00, from 13-15mph
The conditions there would make for a strong play in my mind on a natural grass surface, but the line opened at 57 1/2, so the public has already noticed these conditions. If I had done this earlier in the week and got a better line, one close to the opening line, it would definitely be a strong play.

Nevada/UNLV  - Medium Play - Under 59.5
Game Time: 4:00
Playing surface: FieldTurf
Wind Speed from 3:00 to 8:00, 21-26 mph
I kinda was reluctant to put this as a medium play rather than a strong one, but I think that 30mph winds on a field turf field would make me feel better about it. Again this is just to kind of get an idea what I am doig.

Remainder of the games I like:

Nortre Dame/Washington - Medium Play - Under 54
Stanford/UCLA - Medium Play - Under 45

Cal/USC - Weak Play - Under 48
TCU/SMU - Weak Play - Under 52
Maryland/Clemson - Weak Play - Under 48.5

Haha...........
Good lookin Freaky......... Thanks
I through in humidity cause maybe it can effect players stamina and endurance maybe comparable to their style of play and substitutions
Hey......... At least if it bombs - we can blame the weather......... Right?
Hahaha.............

Good job man.........

1 thing I look at is if there is a lot of passing anticipated i take the over especially in nfl because the lines are lower than ncaa.If 1 of the teams is projected to score a bunch than the other team will probably score some too(not all cases,especially if the team has a shutout going).

Yeah I missed last week's game, but like Bam Bam said it seems there would have been plays out on the west coast, especially Colorado.

I'll try to get some games up if there are any this week.