CALL 82 OLD SYSTEM

Hey Folks,

As you can see I havent contributed to this site very much although I have been around since late 2007. I was basically trying me own research and came up with something I would like to share here. I know ist a chase system and I know how people think about it and they have a fair point with it. I backtested it back to the 2004 season and it payed off very nicely in each and every season. Over the course of the last 5 seasons that the worst season still made 54,6 Units and I played it the first time last year and made 108,73 Units. Anyway, here it is:

The systems foundation is the fact that the MLB is very close and the best and worst teams are not that different (witch respect to the win%) when compared to other sports. Taking into account that the baseball season has the "special item" that the games are played in series (3 or 4 games at one place in a row) and that only in 10-15% of these series the home team looses all three or four games, made me suspicious (please excuse my english, I am from Germany and doing my best ;-)). When you delete Washington from this equation, the sweeping factor for home teams get reduced to something in between 6 and 8%.

Now lets get to the point: I divided the league in 3 groups with the best teams being in group 1, the middle in group 2 and the worst in group 3. What I basically do is chasing the 3 or 4 game series until the home team won a game. Here I have different approaches in respect to the teams that are playing (and then the group they are in).

I start the series with the first home game for every home team from group 1, regardless who they are facing. If they win the first game, I am done and leave the other 2 or 3 games of the series behind. I play 1 Unit on the home team, if they win I am done there, if they lose I am going to bet the amount to win 2 Units in the second game and so on.

With teams from group 2 its a little bit different, here it depends who is the visitor (and from which group). If a 2 team is playing at home and the visitor is from group 1, I wait for the result of the first game. If the home team wins, the series is over and I was just too carefull. If the home team loses, I will start with 1 Unit in the second game and then the same system occurs as above. When a team from group 2 hosts an opponent from group 2 or 3, I will start with the first game of the series since its not that likely they will lose all 3 to a not-premium-team.

When it comes to teams from group 3 I will only start with the first game when the visitor is from that group too, if not then I wait for the second game and depending on the result I will play it or not.

I hope you can follow my explainations here, I know ist a chase but it paid very well over and over in every season and since I use the statistic approach with the home sweeps, I dont see why it shouldnt stay like this. With teams from group 2 and 3 I am just beeing carefull with respect to the opponent, every once in a while you will see a home-sweep and the you lose less than with a start in the first game. I would really love to hear opinions from you guys!

Since I dont know much about baseball (they dont show it here in Germany, I barely know the players, I just did spend some time in the US and love the game) you can tell that my approach is more about statistics and research about trends within the game itself, not the players.

Looking forward to your comments, This year I will also start to post all my plays here so you can see the results (hopefully positive again ;-))