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BE Very careful of these NHL Systems....................

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I would advise being very carefull with some of these NHL systems. I have back-tested and kept stats since 1998 on some of these systems that are poping up on here now.
 
YOU WILL LOSE YOUR MONEY..................
 
Only a couple of them really work through the years. Most have had very High failure rates over a 12 year period. They look good for a year or two then they collapse.
 
All of you have been Warned. Only play Time tested systems with at least 7 years of back-testing if not, Variance will kill you esp with high money line sports such as NHL and MLB.
 
I seen MLB systems pop up this year that were played 10 years ago and everyone lost their shirts and the same thing happend this year again.  History Repeats itself.................
 
BE CAREFULL..........................
 
Regards to all.
 
BK  
 
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Posted: #2
on nhl systems when testing going backi only 4 years is ok because of the rules change.   that the new system that kongkiller modified is probably going to be good for a number of years
 
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Posted: #3
I am not saying what Kong has done is incorrect. What I am saying is that most systems have been around a VERY long time and most of this isnt anything new at all.
 
You dont think that Pro bettors and even bookies dont keep an eye on this type of wagering and patterns ???? 
 
I really dont think the average poster really realizes how many betting rings are out there that all they do is look for angles to win.
 
Guess what .............. Most do not play chase systems at all. WHY   Because Long-term Variance will eat you ALIVE.
 
Only 1 true system has stood the test of time that is NBA East vs West..... Thats it, nothing else has come even close.
 
Proof ......... All sportsbooks in Las vegas a couple of year ago Stopped all bettors from buying more then 1/2 to 1 point tops on any NBA game or series and you cannot buy on Key # 3 at all.
 
DO you think for a minute the Sportsbooks dont have the sharpest guys around working for them ????
 
This isnt about any 1 poster. Its about long-term Variance and you will LOSE ON UN-TESTED SYSTEMS.  
 
You can take that to the BANK.................................
 
BK 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #4
3 a key ??? how in the world are you getting a key number in basketball ?  There is so much scoring that a key number is useless.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
keith
 
please enlighten us on what ones are time tested and what one should be avoided for NBA and NHL please?
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
BK....appreciate the warning, but with Kong's modification of playing only the A and B games of the system and using a Labby money management instead of a more aggressive betting strategy like Martingale, it seems like some of the big swings from the losses are taken out of the equation.  No system can be perfect.  Everything will lose at some point in time, but the question is whether it can be sustainable for a season or two with the modifications.  Based upon my research and reading all of these posts about 10 times, I am going to give it a whirl. 
 
Using the Labby and not doing a true "Chase" here, is there an angle I am missing?  I know this has all been done before.....but I am just looking to earn units over the long run, not retire.....yet.
 
 
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Posted: #7
With all DUE Respect Lipps and I RESPECT you as a poster on this board. You are dead Wrong. Go into any Las Vegas sportsbook when NBA starts and at most you buy 1 point actually only a few books are at that any more, most are + 1/2 point thats it. You cannot buy that 1 or 1/2 on a line at -3 or + 3 Its not allowed.
 
Why the Bookies caught up with that NBA system and tanked it. Its only a matter of time before on-line books due the same we have maybe 1 to 2 years left and that is over.
 
In my opinion and its only mine. I personally do not think any system with at least 1000- 1500 out-comes can even be considered a True working system that can out-perform long-term variance it wont happen.
 
What everyone misses on this subject is that without a working model you have nothing ??? 1 or 2 years of back-testing C,mon that isnt even enough to map anything out at all. Proof. JM 2 years ago got his ass kicked on his MLB why ??? Because he thought that his back-tested model for a couple of years would work ?? IT DIDNT..............
 
I am not saying chae systems do not work. Tod from PSIC is a living proof that solid systems work. Without knowing any of his details, I would bet that his back-testing is years at least 7 years or more. You can take short-term wins and think it will equate into long-term winnings. It dont happen.
 
Look at it this way ? Please tell us all the system sellers that have had 5 years of winnings ??? 
 
Only 1 that I know of ........Thats Tod.  Thats it ?
 
JM for sure hasnt at all. Coach Thompson a Dear friend of mine he is a great guy same thing happend to him this year in MLB and he had a system that was back-tested for over 10 years and guess what ??? It failed Huge until he made adjustments and came out above even at the end of the season this year.
 
My point is that you guys are wagering on systems that you really have no business wagering on ?? The out-comes have not stood the test of time. 
 
Perfect example without going into too much detail in the early 1990"s there was a very large money making system in the american league in MLB its was a Cash Cow. What happend it crashed and burned and all the guys whom followed it for a few years wound up giving back all of their profits. What happend Once again Variance caught up with them.
 
NHL is a very shaky sport from ownership to the front office all the way down to the bookies. All they have to do is adjust lines in a flcik of a switch and YOU ARE DEAD.
 
There are about a handfull of systems that have stood the test of time. NBA East-West and 3 others that really dont circulate on the boards as they are kept under wraps very tightly. Are they the Holy grail no. However they have won for years. 
 
Watch what happens with JM"S NFL crap he has out this season that is a SUCKER SYSTEM....... 2 series loses and You are wiped out...............
 
Here is my thoughts Play with Caution....................
 
Anybody can post numbers up on a website,It doesn"t mean they are the Correct ?
 
And for the Record I do think Kong is a straight shooter.
 
I wish everyone the best of winnings.  
 
BK
 
 
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Posted: #8
Kieth you do have some valid points. I do agree. But if I may this is how I feal real money makers can adjust

If available take the alternate +1.5 / RL or PL no matter what the juice
Combine it with proper money management to hedge losses

For NBA
STAY AWAY FROM BETUS
THEY SHAVE POINTS AGAINST OUR FAVOR COMPARED TO OTHER BOOKS ON JM PLAYS BY JUST ENOUGH FOR THE SERIES TO GO DEEPER AND MAY EVEN LOSE.
MANY GIVE UP IN THE SERIES WHICH THE BAD GUYS WANT TOO

LIPPSMAN IS THE MAN ON THIS HE CAN EXPLAIN THIS

2nd on the NBA you can maybe fade the JM pick and buy points the other way in Vegas's favor
They did get creamed last year and are ready to get their money back

MarlonB explained it in his MLB thread over the summer

Me personally don't like spreads in NFL and NBA too for obvious reasons but do respect them. I see ML's as true value
And don't care how steep they are
That is only to influence the public's behavior in betting
Seen it so many times and continue to see it

With a little intuition we can look out for Vegas adjustments and be on their side of evolution

Thanks for looking out BigGuy.............
Catch ya around.........

 
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Posted: #9
I can't believe you are giving credit to PSIC Tod.  I used him this year and he was a disaster.  Thank God I stopped and faded him toward the middle of the season.  I used JM and did very well this year NBA, MLB, NFL so far and soon NHL. The books killed the WNBA but gave us 'middles' on some games. I also have Blackbeltcapper who is very good as well.  Is Blackbelt one of the Holy Grail options?
 
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Posted: #10
Whatever, thats why its called GAMBLING!!!  If you don't like it go buy a bond or something.  I have 10 wins road wins with Min in a game 2, and I have 9 home wins with TB in a game 2.  YeeHAW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #11
My point is that you guys are wagering on systems that you really have no business wagering on ??
 
????? WTF????  It's my money and I'll wager on what I like.  Take a hike, jackass!!!!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12

Hey Hectar..........

How is your NHL Bankroll doing ?????

 

 
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Posted: #13
SWEET.  No losses yet, up over 40 units so far this month!!!!  Started NBA last night 1-0 with the Lakers.  Systems are the only way to make big bucks.
 
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by bigkeith:

I would advise being very carefull with some of these NHL systems. I have back-tested and kept stats since 1998 on some of these systems that are poping up on here now.
 
YOU WILL LOSE YOUR MONEY..................
 
Only a couple of them really work through the years. Most have had very High failure rates over a 12 year period. They look good for a year or two then they collapse.
 
All of you have been Warned. Only play Time tested systems with at least 7 years of back-testing if not, Variance will kill you esp with high money line sports such as NHL and MLB.
 
I seen MLB systems pop up this year that were played 10 years ago and everyone lost their shirts and the same thing happend this year again.  History Repeats itself.................
 
BE CAREFULL..........................
 
Regards to all.
 
BK  

 

Agreed, for the most part they are not alloting the juice, and playing this road favs and +PL will kill all of these systems.

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