All sports system plays.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Paddington]

tophat...i just discovered this thread yesterday...super stuff and super record keeping!...a suggestion i think you'll like

*please wipe the single (non-)play at the 2.5* level off your tally (last posted at #444)...handle it, if you must (many just ignore pushes), as a note to the 2*  level...having that 0% whack your eyeball as you move up the star-levels is unnerving...not to mention incorrect mathematically
winrate at 0-0-1 is "undefined" as properly-defined winrate is not w/(w+l=p)...it is w/(w+l)=0/0...the 0 in the denominator makes it meaningless in this case, as there are no real "results" to summarize at this level...this is good, cuz it just destroys the beautiful symmetry of watching the win%s (hopefully) rising with the confidence-based star-level...here's what i'd suggest

5* 6-4-1 60%

4* 15-16-2 48%

3* 92-70 56%

2* 9-8 52%      (also 1 push at the 2.5* level)

1* 7-7 50%

Now you see the beautiful upward trend of actual win% rising with confidence (star) levels...except for at the 4* level (where a nice little 5 game run would pull the results back in line.

BTW, i noticed as i studied my way thru your thread that this one non-result is the ONLY (out of 237 proposed plays) that is not at a full whole-number level of stars...perhaps you might just eliminate the prospect of "halfers" ever mucking things up again in the future, and decide to either "promote" or "hold back" all system-generated mid-strength plays to fit your nice 5-level arrangement

Speaking of confidence-based (whether called units/stars/dimes, etc...) bet-size recommendations...I've never had much "confidence" in them, as it usually is the cappers capping themselves (and not very well...flat betting a good cappers picks at their average-star value usually outperforms the capper's "as is" record).  I've found/made one exception to this in the past...dj_destroyer...you, tophat, sir, are the second capper/system developer I've found that has a quantifiable basis behind his bet-size recommendations (not to mention the fact that your "tally table" report clearly demonstrates clearly the sorts of performance-improvement we'd expect necessary to justifying upping our bets)....

technical note...DJ would surely point out here that it is yield%, rather than win% that should rise as star-ratings rise...but still i love looking at your tally from the bottom up and seeing the W% rising in sync...so get that ugly 2.5'er outa sight, will ya? lol

when i have time, i'll run up the (push-excluded) yields at each of your levels...unless of course, you got'em handy

I followed DJ to sbr...now i've got a good reason to visit covers every day too!

quik correction.  Sorry, Paddington, for the clutter...i'm trying to prevent the clutter from future knit-pickers pointin out the obvious...that it should have been...

winrate at 0-0-1 is "undefined" as properly-defined winrate is not w/(w+l+p)...it is w/(w+l)=0/0...the 0 in the denominator makes it meaningless in this case, as there are no real "results" to summarize at this level

BTW, Paddington (aka, Steve)...i see we seek out and eventually wind up in the same "Quality" threads, both here and at Covers.  PM me, if you wanna compare notes some time.

tophat, i just hopped on, and will stay on for the haul

Mon May 23

130-104-6 +62.85 55%

3 Boston Red Sox -118 (RF) Loser

3 Houston Astros +120 (HD) Winner

1-1 +.06 units

131-105-6 +62.91 55%

 

 

Welcome aboard Fitguy.  Thanks for dropping a line and thanks for the kind words.  

It's funny, everytime I update my stats I say to myself get rid of that 2.5 unit play. Unfortunately I never do due to the fact that I'm anal when it comes to record keeping. I will make an exception this time because I agree with you, consider it gone.

FYI, I have eliminated 1 and 2 units plays. 3 to 5 units that's it.

Thanks again man.

 

Tues May 24

131-105-6 +62.91 55%

3 Colorado Rockies -170 Game 1 (HF)

Okay so here's the deal with this play. It falls into 3 ( but not so good ) systems. A 55%, 52% and another 52% system. Now normally I would never play a fav of -170 but because it's my system and I have to stand behind my work I will play this blood sucker. For future reference, if this were a -200 play I would not play it.

Good luck to me today and all of you.  

Pinnacle is a book which offers RL - 1 which I tend to take on these occasions.  It means that a win is a push at worst, and of course the odds are better. The juice on the RL - 1 was only -120 or thereabouts

Tues May 24

131-105-6 +62.91 55%

3 Colorado Rockies -170 Game 1 (HF) Winner

132-105-6 +65.91 55%

Wed May 25

132-105-6 +65.91 55%

3 Chicago Cubs +101

Good luck to all

Wed May 25

132-105-6 +65.91 55%

3 Chicago Cubs +101 (HD)

Good luck to all

Wed May 25

132-105-6 +65.91 55%

3 Chicago Cubs +101 (HD) Loser (Why is Casey Coleman in the major leagues, f**king stinks)  

0-1 -3 units

132-106-6 +62.91 55%

Thurs May 26

132-106-6 +62.91 55%

No plays today

Good luck to all.

Fri May 27

132-106-6 +62.91 55%

3 San Francisco Giants +101 (RD)

Good luck to all.

Fri May 27

132-106-6 +62.91 55%

3 San Francisco Giants +101 (RD) Winner

1-0 +3.03 units

133-106-6 +65.94 55%

Sat May 28

133-106-6 +65.94 55%

3 Houston Astros -125 (HF)

Good luck to all.

Sat May 28

133-106-6 +65.94 55%

 3 Houston Astros -125 (HF) Loser (absolutely horrible)

0-1 -3.75 units

133-107-6 +62.19 55%

Sun May 29

133-107-6 +62.19 55%

3 New York Mets -115
3 Houston Astros +105
3 Baltimore Orioles -105

Good luck to all

 Sun May 29

133-107-6 +62.19 55%

3 New York Mets -115 (HF)
3 Houston Astros +105 (HD)
3 Baltimore Orioles -105 (RF)

Potential addition: 3 Boston Red Sox -106 (RF) Game 2 If the Red Sox win Game 1 by 2 runs or more they are a play for Game 2.

Good luck to all

 Sun May 29

133-107-6 +62.19 55%

3 New York Mets -115 (HF) Winner
3 Houston Astros +105 (HD) Loser
3 Baltimore Orioles -105 (RF) Loser

3 Boston Red Sox -106 (RF) Game 2 No Play

1-2 -3.15 units

134-109-6 +59.04 55%

 

MLB RD's

+100 - +110 are 5-4 ( I can work with this )

+111 - +140 are 2-4 ( I'll just monitor for now )

+141 - +160 are 0-4 ( see ya )

MLB RF's

-100 - -110 are 4-3 ( right where it needs to be )

-111 - -120 are 4-5 ( I'll monitor this too )

-121 - -170 are 1-3 ( see ya )

 

  Tally

5 6-4-1 60%

4 15-16-2 48%

3 96-75 56%

2 9-8 52%

1 7-7 50%