I rarely post here. My survivor win percentage is below .500. I don't even think about handicapping my survivor pick unless my streak reaches 5 or more. I've been signed up since sometime in 2006. The best I've ever done is winning a hat after picking my first 9 out of the gate, and haven't had a repeat performance since then. However, on to the subject matter...
I planned on picking the Dodgers as my next survivor pick before doing any research for 2 reasons: the Cardinals are my home team and have been on a sickening slump for awhile against teams that they should be beating to try to make up ground on the Brewers, and also, I'll be happy no matter the outcome, either my beloved Birds win or I'll add another notch to my streak.
I just happened to click on the umpire stats for the upcoming matchup. The umpire, Wolf, has been involved in 6 total games in which either Kershaw or Lohse were the starting pitchers. 5 of the 6 involved Lohse, in which Lohse's teams went 0-5, losing by an average score of 6-2. The only game involving Kershaw was a 2-0 win for the Dodgers. I continued to look at the umpire stats and learned that visiting teams have a significant winning record this season when Wolf is behind the plate (16-10). I also noticed that the only time that the home team did well was as a small favorite. I believe the record was 5-1 for the -110 to -140 range. When you factor this out of the equation since LA is favored, that leaves the visiting team with a 15-5 record as long as the home team is not a small favorite.
I have probably overanalyzed this one angle and am looking for constructive criticism.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I rarely post here. My survivor win percentage is below .500. I don't even think about handicapping my survivor pick unless my streak reaches 5 or more. I've been signed up since sometime in 2006. The best I've ever done is winning a hat after picking my first 9 out of the gate, and haven't had a repeat performance since then. However, on to the subject matter...
I planned on picking the Dodgers as my next survivor pick before doing any research for 2 reasons: the Cardinals are my home team and have been on a sickening slump for awhile against teams that they should be beating to try to make up ground on the Brewers, and also, I'll be happy no matter the outcome, either my beloved Birds win or I'll add another notch to my streak.
I just happened to click on the umpire stats for the upcoming matchup. The umpire, Wolf, has been involved in 6 total games in which either Kershaw or Lohse were the starting pitchers. 5 of the 6 involved Lohse, in which Lohse's teams went 0-5, losing by an average score of 6-2. The only game involving Kershaw was a 2-0 win for the Dodgers. I continued to look at the umpire stats and learned that visiting teams have a significant winning record this season when Wolf is behind the plate (16-10). I also noticed that the only time that the home team did well was as a small favorite. I believe the record was 5-1 for the -110 to -140 range. When you factor this out of the equation since LA is favored, that leaves the visiting team with a 15-5 record as long as the home team is not a small favorite.
I have probably overanalyzed this one angle and am looking for constructive criticism.
Correcting myself, the range was -121 to -140 for the home team, and the record was 5-2. This still leaves the visiting team record at 15-6. Again, I'm probably overanalyzing.
Correcting myself, the range was -121 to -140 for the home team, and the record was 5-2. This still leaves the visiting team record at 15-6. Again, I'm probably overanalyzing.
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