Posted:
#1
Wednesday was decent, though Serbia/Australia wound up really hurting in the long run and I eeked out a good amount with a +375 Prop bet.
Spread W/L/D: 9/6/7
Moneyline W/L: 3/7
O/U W/L/D: 7/6/3
Props: 1/1
Overall Balance: -17.52 units
YTD W/L/D: 20/21/10
Paraguay vs. New Zealand
Interesting game where all 4 teams have chances of advancing; Paraguay can get a point and advance, and New Zealand will probably need a win. For a very defensively physical team, this will mean the Kiwis will need to open up a bit, which will make them vulnerable. Paraguay will also not want to finish 2nd in the group and would rather not play the Netherlands in the next round. But both will certainly attempt to be careful, and it's possible one goal will be all the difference here. But you can't count the Kiwis out to make it close the whole way. Not in this tournament.
New Zealand +1 (+111): 5 units
Paraguay vs. New Zealand UNDER 2.5 goals (-133): 5 units
Italy vs. Slovakia
The world champs have started slow but now they're in a bit of trouble; a Draw may see them advance but they really need a Win here. The problem is their mostly inconsistent play, and if Slovakia can keep them bottled out of the penalty box enough to survive and possibly win (Slovakia needs a win and some help to advance). Pirlo will be fit for Italy but will probably be a sub; and Italy will probably make a few other changes. Italy should be able to break down Slovakia eventually, but it's a little tough to see how or when. They're just so incredibly untrustworthy. I do like the Under though.
Italy vs. Slovakia UNDER 2.5 goals (-135): 5 units
Denmark vs. Japan
Denmark has shown some life against Cameroon after going down now but will face Japan, who also has a halfway decent if somewhat frustrating team which only needs a Draw to advance since they have a positive goal differential. However, the odds don't support Denmark advancing here (I would have preferred a Pick). Kjaer will be out for Denmark and Bendtner is still not fully fit but will probably play. I can't find any way to make money in this match.
Netherlands vs. Cameroon
I'm not sure this game is really worth looking after; unless Japan surpasses them on goal difference (3 goals) then they are guaranteed first place and face the hugely disappointing Cameroon. Supposedly the Dutch will play the exact same team as the last two games, but I can't believe that'll last. It'll be a tune-up game as their last two wins, while granting them 6 points, haven't exactly been the most clinical put-together type of games. But they aren't Argentina here and they don't have an egotistical coach. Stay away from this one.
Open Bets: 3 (15 units)
Spread W/L/D: 9/6/7
Moneyline W/L: 3/7
O/U W/L/D: 7/6/3
Props: 1/1
Overall Balance: -17.52 units
YTD W/L/D: 20/21/10
Paraguay vs. New Zealand
Interesting game where all 4 teams have chances of advancing; Paraguay can get a point and advance, and New Zealand will probably need a win. For a very defensively physical team, this will mean the Kiwis will need to open up a bit, which will make them vulnerable. Paraguay will also not want to finish 2nd in the group and would rather not play the Netherlands in the next round. But both will certainly attempt to be careful, and it's possible one goal will be all the difference here. But you can't count the Kiwis out to make it close the whole way. Not in this tournament.
New Zealand +1 (+111): 5 units
Paraguay vs. New Zealand UNDER 2.5 goals (-133): 5 units
Italy vs. Slovakia
The world champs have started slow but now they're in a bit of trouble; a Draw may see them advance but they really need a Win here. The problem is their mostly inconsistent play, and if Slovakia can keep them bottled out of the penalty box enough to survive and possibly win (Slovakia needs a win and some help to advance). Pirlo will be fit for Italy but will probably be a sub; and Italy will probably make a few other changes. Italy should be able to break down Slovakia eventually, but it's a little tough to see how or when. They're just so incredibly untrustworthy. I do like the Under though.
Italy vs. Slovakia UNDER 2.5 goals (-135): 5 units
Denmark vs. Japan
Denmark has shown some life against Cameroon after going down now but will face Japan, who also has a halfway decent if somewhat frustrating team which only needs a Draw to advance since they have a positive goal differential. However, the odds don't support Denmark advancing here (I would have preferred a Pick). Kjaer will be out for Denmark and Bendtner is still not fully fit but will probably play. I can't find any way to make money in this match.
Netherlands vs. Cameroon
I'm not sure this game is really worth looking after; unless Japan surpasses them on goal difference (3 goals) then they are guaranteed first place and face the hugely disappointing Cameroon. Supposedly the Dutch will play the exact same team as the last two games, but I can't believe that'll last. It'll be a tune-up game as their last two wins, while granting them 6 points, haven't exactly been the most clinical put-together type of games. But they aren't Argentina here and they don't have an egotistical coach. Stay away from this one.
Open Bets: 3 (15 units)
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