Posted:
#1
2013: 261-203 +81.47 Units (56.25%)
January 14' 12-17 -6.36 Units (41.4%)
February 14' 52-47 +4.72 Units (52.5%)
March 14' 27-29 -1 Unit (48.2%)
Have various leans today on EL but don't feel confident enough to pull the trigger yet. So only game today so far:
Napoli-Porto, Napoli ML @ 1.95 (1/10)
Two things that bothered me in deciding to place the bet:
Fighting for survival on a Friday night are two teams who arguably deserve being involved in the relegation battles.
January 14' 12-17 -6.36 Units (41.4%)
February 14' 52-47 +4.72 Units (52.5%)
March 14' 27-29 -1 Unit (48.2%)
Have various leans today on EL but don't feel confident enough to pull the trigger yet. So only game today so far:
Napoli-Porto, Napoli ML @ 1.95 (1/10)
Two things that bothered me in deciding to place the bet:
1) Napoli is very much the "square" bet today apart from Salzburg.
2) If Porto loses this one, their season is essentially over.
But nonetheless the reasons favoring Napoli were too strong not to jump on it. I watched a couple of games from both teams this season so far, Porto was disappointing against Frankfurt and I believe they should not have advanced there. Napoli in turn is very convincing at home, seem to win every game, even against tougher opponents (Roma, Milan, Arsenal, Inter, Dortmund etc.) When this team was under pressure, they showed up. From what I heard the first leg victory was also rather lucky for Porto and at some point your luck is going to run out. Mental edge also to Napoli as they won their last two games, whereas Porto lost to Sporting and therefore also likely the chance to finish second.
Friday:
SC Freiburg-Werder Bremen
Now this is a game I feel very confident in and placed my bets days ago already, but odds are still tasty.
2) If Porto loses this one, their season is essentially over.
But nonetheless the reasons favoring Napoli were too strong not to jump on it. I watched a couple of games from both teams this season so far, Porto was disappointing against Frankfurt and I believe they should not have advanced there. Napoli in turn is very convincing at home, seem to win every game, even against tougher opponents (Roma, Milan, Arsenal, Inter, Dortmund etc.) When this team was under pressure, they showed up. From what I heard the first leg victory was also rather lucky for Porto and at some point your luck is going to run out. Mental edge also to Napoli as they won their last two games, whereas Porto lost to Sporting and therefore also likely the chance to finish second.
Friday:
SC Freiburg-Werder Bremen
Now this is a game I feel very confident in and placed my bets days ago already, but odds are still tasty.
Fighting for survival on a Friday night are two teams who arguably deserve being involved in the relegation battles.
Freiburg and Bremen are the two teams who rank 18th and 17th in shots on goal and shot attempts, 26 and 29 goals scored reflect that. Bremen is the team that plays the fewest passes in the league but still manages to maintain the lowest pass accurary percentage. On the other hand, they engage in the most 1:1 duels of all Bundesliga teams. They used to be an over team, and there were games this season in which they actually tried to play offensively, but those ended disastrous and ever since Coach Dutt has said that given the available players, there is no other option but to sit back, defend, and hope for a lucky goal. That has worked out quite well, as Bremen has managed to build a cushion of 7 points. A key reason for that is they have won, or atleast tied, the decisive games against direct competitors (18 points in 11 games).
Freiburg is such an opponent. They had to deal with 5 of their best players leaving after the succesful last season and haven't really recovered from that yet. They have major difficulties scoring, especially when the opponents are not to keen on playing offensively, which Bremen surely won't be. Now part of the odds I believe may be explained by their 4-1 victory in Frankfurt last week, but don't be fooled by that result. This was a win as lucky as could, Frankfurt was dominating, Freiburg was harmless. Their first goal "attempt" directly resulted in the 1-0, after a corner. In total Freiburg had 4 shots on goal, and 4 goals scored. They did not win the game, Frankfurt lost it.
But the circumstances in this game will be very different. Bremen would be satisfied with a point, enough to hold Freiburg and other competitors away. Freiburg will have major difficulties to create scoring opportunities, after all they haven't allowed neither Stuttgart nor Nürnberg any 100% opportunities and only conceded 2 goals in their last 5 games (all 5 going Under). But as I said their offensive itself does not deserve to be called as such. If they score, they usually do so through a free-kick or long-distance shot.
Overall I expect a horrible game, very few chances, a solid Bremen defense, a Freiburg offense incapable of creating chances, and include the fact that Bremen has not lost in 5 games and has looked good against those teams that were deemed "beatable".
The game in Bremen was exactly just that and ended 0-0, could see another one coming tomorrow.
Freiburg is such an opponent. They had to deal with 5 of their best players leaving after the succesful last season and haven't really recovered from that yet. They have major difficulties scoring, especially when the opponents are not to keen on playing offensively, which Bremen surely won't be. Now part of the odds I believe may be explained by their 4-1 victory in Frankfurt last week, but don't be fooled by that result. This was a win as lucky as could, Frankfurt was dominating, Freiburg was harmless. Their first goal "attempt" directly resulted in the 1-0, after a corner. In total Freiburg had 4 shots on goal, and 4 goals scored. They did not win the game, Frankfurt lost it.
But the circumstances in this game will be very different. Bremen would be satisfied with a point, enough to hold Freiburg and other competitors away. Freiburg will have major difficulties to create scoring opportunities, after all they haven't allowed neither Stuttgart nor Nürnberg any 100% opportunities and only conceded 2 goals in their last 5 games (all 5 going Under). But as I said their offensive itself does not deserve to be called as such. If they score, they usually do so through a free-kick or long-distance shot.
Overall I expect a horrible game, very few chances, a solid Bremen defense, a Freiburg offense incapable of creating chances, and include the fact that Bremen has not lost in 5 games and has looked good against those teams that were deemed "beatable".
The game in Bremen was exactly just that and ended 0-0, could see another one coming tomorrow.
This results in three bets:
Under 2.5 @ 1.98 (3/10)
Bremen +0.5 @ 1.76 (2/10)
Bremen +0 @ 2.54 (1/10)
Under 2.5 @ 1.98 (3/10)
Bremen +0.5 @ 1.76 (2/10)
Bremen +0 @ 2.54 (1/10)
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