SUNDAY SOCCER

Covers Posted Soccer: 136-110 +49.59 units

Manchester United v Arsenal over 2.5 -135 to win 2 units

Who knows what team Alex Ferguson is going to field against Arsenal.  Will Van Persie start for the league winners against the team he left for exactly THAT reason?  Will Rooney start?  Who cares … Manchester united can field a team that can beat any team in the league at any time and they always have goal scoring threats on the field.  It’s all execution but they will get their chances today against an Arsenal team chasing the full 3 points in that hunt for that final Champions League play.

Arsenal, 42 scored and 21 allowed 17 home games with an average of 3.70 combined goals per game. Arsenal has had the highest scoring home games in the league this season (combined goals).  35 scored and 18 conceded for United in 17 road games for an average of 3.12 per road game.

• Arsenal has only kept 5 clean sheets this season.
• Man U has scored 2 or more in 11 of their 17 road games and 25 of their 34 games in the season’s campaign.
• Arsenal is 2ndonly to Manchester United in goals scored on their home field. They are also 7th in the league in goals allowed on their home pitch which is why the highest scoring field this season has been Emirates Stadium.
• Overall, Arsenal is 3rd in the EPL in goals scored, Manchester United is 1st
• United’s 35 road goals scored is tied for first in the league
• The over 2.5 is 6-2 in Arsenal’s last 8 home games
• United’s string of 4 straight road clean sheets was snapped in their last road game when they drew 2-2 to West Ham.

Here’s the biggest clincher of it all though.

Arsenal is currently in 3rd place and Chelsea who also plays Sunday, before Arsenal hits the pitch, is only one point behind the Gunners. Arsenal will play for the full 3 hear in the hopes of qualifying for the Champions League. Wenger has no choice against Untied but to open the game up in order to seek out the win.  A draw doesn’t really do much but keep the congestion for that 4th spot alive.  With Chelsea almost pretty much a certainty to get the full 3 in their game, Arsenal needs to keep winning to lock up their Champions League spot for next year.

As for United, there is no more dangerous team than a team who has already won the championship and who will be playing RELAXED football.  A relaxed champion is very dangerous because they will get to have fun.  Now, this can lead to mistakes, creating chances for Arsenal but it can also lead to getting more involved in the offensive pushes. 

This game has all the makings of a high scoring affair and I bet this earlier today because I doubt there will be many 2.5’s left in this price zone by kick off.

3 of my 4 models make the scored 2-1 and the fourth makes it 2-2.

AC MILAN V CATANIA OVER 2.5 – 130 TO WIN 2 UNITS

Again, this is a line that will move by game time with Mario Balotelli back in the line-up and with the team chasing a win to qualify for Champions League play next year.

Catania has allowed 2 or more goals in 9 of their 16 road games.

They are a dangerous counter attacking team and still have an outside chance of qualifying for Europe next year. A game where both teams are chasing the full 3;

If there is a tendency this year in AC Milan games it is that their home games have been where you want to play them to go over the total as they have played much tighter on the road.

With Milan's offence back to full strength this one should see 3 goals.  Note, all my models give me a 2-1 result.