Sat/Sun Serie A Finale + others......

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specimen24 · Answer

back in a min

specimen24 · Answer

was looking for this thread so can update.

no wonder i couldnt find it.... never posted it.

(cazzo)

anyways..... just going to cut n paste & add as I go

another year in the books. and judging from the developments, this going to be one of the busiest transfer sessions in recent memory this summer. i'd LIKE to say the end of the year grapevine stuff is 'normal' but these past few weeks have been anything but 'normal' even by our 'lofty' standards.

Serie A: - a fun wknd with bunch of futures to cash in next sunday, so is having thy annual season ender. took these last night, playing the ones where the lines are going to move like (bleep) this week. 4 teams, 2 CL 'windfall' slots; havent had one of these season-endings in a while. rumors flying already.

Atal 66, Inter 66, Milan 65, Roma 63 first tiebreaker is the H2H's.

Atalanta - win and in. can draw as long as either Inter or Milan dont win.

Inter - win & in. a draw will do as well (this doesnt bode well for Empoli)

Milan - win & hope either Atalanta or Inter lose.

Roma - theyre scr*wed.

at the OTHER end:

Udinese, Empoli, Fiorentina, Genoa, Bologna ALL can still drop. but those other 4 can give a sigh of relief.. Empoli MUST beat Inter... and I seriously doubt that will happen. yet still, thats a lot of matches which at least have 'relevance'; which can hurt as much as help. teams tend to play for the fans in season finales tho.

Roma -1.5 @evens - took this the second the whistle blew in Parma yesterday. Roma mathematically still have an outside chance if they thump Parma and 3-4 other results go their way. but this is DeRossis last home game and Olimpico will be sold out to bid their captain & hometown hero goodbye after 18 years; tho Im not fond of the club, but DeRossi is one of the holdovers from the 'old school' ways with a soccer IQ that was off the charts; can criticize Roma all I want, but he wore that shirt with PRIDE. the entire team showed up at his press conference; assistants, coaches, youth club members etc etc . Roma more than likely be fired up for this one. but on top of that, Parmas 'w' yesterday clinched their 'stay' in Serie A next year and securing another future, going to be a huge celebration over there all week; 3 consecutive promotions + surviving is quite an accomplishment. should 'roll over' accordingly for this one.

the other 3 matches are juiced to the moon, and im leery of the scoreboard watching. so will sit tight for now.

Thy Annual Serie A season ending goal-Festival. (but a little somewhat wary of it this year due the large amount of 'meaningful' matches. 7 of the 10 games still have importance. last 5 years in order (with the 2.5):6-4, 9-1, 9-1, 10-0, 7-3. (h*ll, the 3.5 has hit above 50%)

in any case, and yes, these are ALL individual plays:

Frosinone/Chievo - PASS. might take the 3.5 but want to wait, 2.5 opened near 250's. cazzo.

Inter/Empoli over 2.5 @-147 (a RARE one for these prices)

Fiorentina/Genoa over 2.5 @-110

Samp/Juve over 2.5 @-123

Torino/Lazio over 3 @-120

SPAL/Milan over 3 @-111

Bologna/Napoli over 2.5 @-115

Roma/Parma over 3 @-125

Atalanta/Sass over 3 @-105

Cagliari/Udinese over 2.5 @-115

10-match over 1.5 @+395

will add plays and the week unfolds

GL to all

specimen24 · Answer

this brings TEARS to my eyes: you have no idea how happy we are today

"Jose Mourinho has reportedly ruled himself out of the running to become Juventus’ next Coach due to his.........."

anyways adding:

Fiorentina/Genoa draw @+160 (strong play)

Genoa pick @+160(smaller) - Viola packed it in a long time ago, 6 straight losses, winless in 15. but these final homestands out here (eyes rolling). Genoa, with a point (assuming Empoli will lose to Inter) will be enough to secure stay as they own the tiebreaker. a point saves face for one, and 'mission accomplished' for the other. the draw has been getting hammered all week.

Mbappe · Answer

Hello SpecFrom behalf of us lurkers, thank you for another seasono of betting tips and picks, really love your insights, speaking of insights, what do you think about all these new rumors about Pep heading over to Turin ? Majority of big books now have him as a strong favorite(stronger than Sarri) and now betting is being locked. Im not asking from a betting managerial aspect, but from a fan aspect, do you think this is a realistic thing? and how do you feel about it ?To me it doesnt make sense for Pep to walk away from citeh especially right now when he has all of his pieces together unless the Sheikh no longer wants him and already has another manager lined up to replace Pep.... the only available manager right now that is Peps caliber is... Allegri

specimen24 · Answer

Mbappe

, appreciate it. regarding Pep. i dont really follow the EPL on a day-to-day thing; those interviews, post game commentary, strategies and what not. so dont know the exact goings on with his situation. realistically? I dont know, i mean, I guess 'yes' in the sense from a coaching standpoint that really..... whats left for him to do? the man has won everything practically. consecutive EPL titles, won 3 Bundes, 3 Ligas, CL titles. and hes been with City what? 3-4 years or something. and his whole coaching career hes proven to get "bored" every 4 or 5 years and move on elsewhere. and Pep, in my opinion, isnt the type of coach whom has the patience to build or develop a squad; so there are very few clubs on his 'short list' to go to (and i wont even get into his salary demands, god knows what that is now) so when a team like Juves stature gets a vacancy... well, its only natural his name is going to pop up.

which brings things back to the EPL. from an outsider speaking specifically in regards to COACHING (not the 'personal or media side of things), why would anybody want to leave that league? youve got the resources to go out an get any player you want (if necessary); and if "strategic challenges" are what motivates you then just take a look at whom is patrolling the sidelines for those clubs over there; practically ALL whom have a different 'blueprint' on what it takes to be successful. and ALL whom have proven to be successful in it too. what I dont know is if Pep is what the call a 'players coach'? hes shown the ability to adapt but maybe something going on internally. im really not in any position to know. but coming to Juve? theres nothing wrong from the coaching standpoint, and he'd walk into a lockerroom filled with veterans, top flight, whom are also used to the media scrutiny, along with a really rabid fan base. but honestly, its probably better off not coming because I dont think things will end well for him. cause we have a bunch of powerful guys in suits & ties running things whom are set in their ways and dont like delegating authority. (if you get what i mean). go ask Conte & Max how they fared when trying.

(opinion only)

in a way, its like "we got you Christian. wheres our CL title?" so Max was scr*wed the second he opened his mouth wanting more authority. can you imagine an outsider demanding this?

specimen24 · Answer

got my arm twisted. so lets tack on the 2.5 as well.

9-match over 2.5 @+3605 (w/out Fior/Genoa)

mathematically, theres still a chance for ALL 4 teams to end with 66 pts. im not even going to get into that.

Adding: going to cover the matches of any 'significance''

had a big discussion on this one, and its taken up a lot of chatter. and on top of everything else, Conte just agreed to be Inters coach next year.

Inter/Empoli - not going to go ranking "importance" but this is probably the biggest when you consider the financial impact it will have on BOTH clubs. For Inter, a win and the UCL windfall next year which also would bring the ability to sign more talent during the summer session because of it. For Empoli, a win and an even 'BIGGER' windfall in being able to stay in Serie A. sure, they still have a 'backdoor' chance to stay if Fiorentina beats Genoa; but Im sure Empoli isnt stupid...... the prices on the draw with Fior/Genoa have been marching towards 'evens' all week long. so basically, theyre going to need to get the win here to stay alive. so, along with my juiced up 2.5 im also taking the 2nd half over 1.5 @-130. all h*ll will break loose in the 2nd half here, one way or the other. theres just simply too much at stake. a "tell" is the fact the -1.5 HC with Inter is barely juiced. Inter has the best defense at home in the league this year....by far. the only club still in single digits conceding. Empoli has just one road win with with the worst travelling defense.....by far. this might be a lot closer than people think, and a high scoring one at that.

hope Im totally wrong with this wknd:

Atalanta/Sassuolo - first of all, have a future pending (the last one) of Atalanta with less than 33.5 pts at home for the season, theyre currently at 32; so a 'w' here sees that one gone. but I seriously dont give a (bleep) about this.

for Atalanta, a win and theyre in the CL next year, which would make it 3 clubs within a 2 hour radius of each other. but several things to make one nervous of that 400+ juice:

1) theyve had a lot of 'big' games this year, but the two times which had the biggest impact for the club financially (final UEL Qualifying round vs Kiev + Coppa Final) where a win would have helped the clubs bottom line tremendously, they failed miserably and were cleansheeted in all 3 matches). last year they were in the running for that final UEL slot and were cleansheeted by Cagliari in the season-ender (even AFTER finding out Milan was down a goal). this team has not shown the ability to handle pressure.

2) construction on their home ground has forced them to play remaining matches at MAPEI stadium........ which just happens to be Sassuolos home grounds. so this isnt even a "home" game for them. and to make matters worse, theyve blown chunks here this year. due to the UEFA rules, all their UEL qualifiers were here and have struggled mightily every time.

3) HC Gasperini took up Romas offer and will be gone next year. leading scorer Zapata name linked to bigger clubs... that kind of sh*t never fares well.

i wasnt expecting them to be anywhere near a UCL spot this year, but now that they are here, im pulling for them even if losing out on the future.

hope they blow them away and put it to bed early. but their track record tells me otherwise, so I got to take a shot at the HC here.

Sassuolo +2 @-123

specimen24 · Answer

SPAL/Milan - another match which was discussed, and just dont understand why Milano heading to 200+ juice land. yes, they still have a shot at the CL spot but its dangerous to be backing them here, never mind on the road either: 1) first of all, a draw/loss WONT change anything 2) secondly, if Inter/Atalanta is leading, youd be sitting on juiced up road favorite whom is entirely unmotivated. and if Inter goes up big early, the sooner this happens. 3) SPAL is another one of those clubs which their players get contract bonus' if come in 10th or higher in the table; so they will --- at the very least - be playing their butts off here in front of their fans in the final homestand of season. -200s for this?? no thanks. PASS.

a few tossed some on this for FUN play, no guarantees:

got it with local, not sure if any books online have this, if do... its worth a peek:

total Red Cards over 3 @-120 - this is one of those things which feed into that "stigma" and conspiracy theorists with their tin hats love to blame due to their ineptitude. those "theres-got-to-be-'fudgery'-going-on" types. theres always an inordinate amount of red cards in the Finale weekend. sure, every once in a while youll get something like what happened with Samp last year, where the armpit got raised and a colorful card shown at the 30th minute. conveniently 'helping' SPAL prevent relegation. but this is actually anything but further from the truth. with europe slots at stake or getting sent to Serie B at stake when ya concede a late goal or go down a few well...... shins, noses... human flesh in general, usually gets seeked out and frustrations vented after a LONNNG season. (think of Gigi going after Oliver last year

) and god forbid if the guy in the other jersey is dating your ex-wife/girlfriend too. both will get sent off. but in the end, we'll still kiss you on the cheek and give you a hug. I dont think theres been less than 3 during the final round this entire decade.

let the conspiracy theorists have their say, theyre clueless anyways.

Serie B: just an fyi, the 'away goal' Rule is NOT in effect. if things remain level, the club whom finished the season higher in table advances.

Hellas Verona to qualify @+240 (Sunday)

have a good wknd and GL to all

Andalouse · Answer

Thanks for your work Mr. Specimen. I only dont understand the last one. Pescara finished above Verona?

Efeh · Answer

Verona

specimen24 · Answer

Andal

was heading out and didnt have time to xplain. its 'after the fact' and they did advance but basically, at the time when made the play the qualify prop was actually better than if taking the outright on the game. as well, Id xplain something about Verona within italy but would take too long. and because they were the lower seed the only way to advance was winning. once the local puts the lines up, take them to win promotion. then in august, put some on a future for them to drop.

efeh

6-2-1push on the Goal Festival, and that Inter/Empoli match went exactly as expected. (cork popping)

Inter/Empoli over 2.5 @-147 (W)

Fiorentina/Genoa over 2.5 @-110 (L)

Samp/Juve over 2.5 @-123 (L)

Torino/Lazio over 3 @-120 (W)

SPAL/Milan over 3 @-111 (W)

Bologna/Napoli over 2.5 @-115 (W)

Roma/Parma over 3 @-125 (P)

Atalanta/Sass over 3 @-105 (W)

Cagliari/Udinese over 2.5 @-115 (W)

Fiorentina/Genoa draw @+160 (W) BANGGGG!!!

Genoa pick @+160 (P)

Roma -1.5 @evens (L)

Inter/Empoli 2nd half over 1.5 @-130 (W) BANGGG!!!

Sassuolo +2 @-123 (P)

total Red Cards over 3 @-120 (P)

Hellas Verona to qualify @+240 (W) BANG, BANG,...BANNGGGGGG!!!!

lost both the 'fun' parlays, before the festivities could even get started with that 0-0 clunker on saturday. so in a typical end-of-year fashion I took a small 7-teamer on sunday to recoup. nice wknd, and swept the kiddies too.

nice ending to the season

DavidStone · Answer

Amazing as usual Specimen! Any thoughts on today&#x27;s U-20 matches?

Sat/Sun Serie A Finale + others......

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