Knockout Rounds thread - only 15 games to go......

Game Picks

Current Record 28-14
Up 58.71 units, Down 33.08 units
TOTAL - Up +25.63 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-12
Up 20.8 Units, Down 23.9 units
Total -3.1 units

Bad day today, but overall a great tournament, and lots of fun.  Cant wait for Brazil 2014.

Semifinal writeups to come....

Whats it like being a total douchebag?

Three (no, four) more games coming up. Bad results last night but this is not the time not to trust Van with very few games to go. A lot of people will still tail you Van, pick the right teams this time

Good luck for the semi finals, Van  

I know you have answered this before but will you come back to the forum once the Premiership and La Liga,Serie A ,Champions League etc starts back up again in August/September ??

It would be good to see you around and you would bring in people who ordinarily wouldn't bet these leagues and I think it would be good for all of us here in the forum.

haha I just came into the topic to ask that exact question.  I really hope you do for them van

sure i lost, but i haven't changed my mind about the fact that you can beat soccer over time

Keep it up Van, tough loss on Arg but you're still crushing.  Looking forward to your semi picks

Semifinal picks should be up tonight or tom morning....

Just enjoying the day with family....

i see you having a 3-0 the rest of the way.im leaning towards spain against the germans but waiting on your take.

i think you need a new thread for the semi-finals

Van, are you going 3 or 5 units on 3rd place game OVER?

(For those of you who are new to soccer capping, this is the closest thing to a lock in the world of sports betting.  A shame we can only take advantage once every four years.)

Vanzack-  

Soccernomics is a great read. It makes you think of soccer on a whole new/different level.

Hey Van,

I have a couple of assumptions about the Spain-Germany game. Can you tell me which (if any) are incorrect?

i) the books want 50/50 action on either side. This is not strictly an assumption for this game, but for any game. Unless you have changed your stance, I'm pretty much 100% sure you agree with this.

ii) the majority of the public or squares or whatever you call them will be on Germany. By public I mean people that are betting on Germany with the following reasoning: "Wow, Germany looks awesome. They just killed England AND Argentina. I don't know that much about their players, but how could they lose to a team that has looked so unimpressive thus far?"

If both of the above are true, and the line doesn't move much between now and game time, is a safe conclusion that the majority of the "smart" money is on Spain? I don't know if "smart" money is the correct term, but basically by "smart" I mean people who know what they are doing.

 

Uruguay likely to miss some key players - Defenders Godin/Captain Lugano /Fucile (suspension) and of course, Suarez.

I havent heard of soccernomics - but will pick it up....

I really dont know of any other soccer gambling books....

Game Picks

Current Record 28-14
Up 58.71 units, Down 33.08 units
TOTAL - Up +25.63 units

Futures... 

Current Record  8-12
Up 20.8 Units, Down 23.9 units
Total -3.1 units

Semifinals

61.  Uruguay / Netherlands - Over 2 -126 (2 units) - Its hard to see a result in this game with Uruguay winning.  I think the Dutch have almost every advantage, including injuries and suspensions.  Uruguay are without Suarez - which will certainly hurt them up front - but like I have said in my other Uruguay writeups he has squandered many more chances and possessions than he has converted - if his name was Fabiano or Klose - I think he would have 10 goals.  Lodeiro is definitely out with a foot injury, and Fucile is out on suspension.  Lugano is also possibly injured - or at best hobbled - which leads me to many more questions about Uruguays back line than their most high profile missing player - Suarez.  They are going to have to plug some holes on defense - and at a very bad time facing the high powered Dutch.

Holland comes in with suspensions and injuries too - Van Der Wiel and De Jong are out on suspension - and Matheijesen is coming off of his injury.  They are still together up front - but a little bit like Uruguay they might be disorganized at the back.

Diego Forlan is one of the few superstars in this tournament who has outplayed expectations - he is the engine that keeps Uruguay going - and he will be asked to do everything in this game.  I just see a lot of space on both sides of the field, and lots of opportunities on net - and as we have seen in the knockouts - one goal usually means many more - you just have to get it before it is too late in the game....  Predicted final score - Holland 3 Uruguay 1

62.  Spain / Germany - Germany to advance +106 (1 unit) - This is really a tough one.  A classic case of one side that on paper is better, but the other side is playing far superior as of late.  Do you throw out form and go with substance, or do you take the hot side that seems unbeatable?  I learned my lesson - Im not betting against Germany right now.

But in retrospect, the Germans do seem beatable to me - the Ghana game could have easily been a disaster for them (and they might not have even advanced), and Serbia somehow had their number too.  But in their 3 wins, they scored 4 goals each game - and have looked the class of the tournament in doing so.  Mueller is out on suspension - which should hurt.  Their efficiency is what is getting my bet - the fact that when they have an opportunity they bury it or at least come close - and their passing and possession has been second to none.  They are playing as a team better than anyone, and my money is on that to continue.

Spain are an all star team, but it seems to me they are playing like a bunch of high priced guys thrown together with no cohesion.  Torres might be benched (which he should be), but make no mistake - if Spain can put together a game they should beat Germany - Im just betting that they wont be able to pull it off.

Im taking form over potential here - but only for a very small wager - Final predicted score Germany 2 Spain 1

GL all

I think there will be way too much money bet on this game to be affected by squares - this will be a huge draw worldwide - and Im not sure we can project our bias on that size of an audience.

Spain have the talent to wipe out Germany.  Germany will wipe out Spain if they played like they did in their 3 wins.

Which will happen?

BTW guys -

Thanks for the ride.  It has been a fucking fantastic month - not only winning - but also the event itself.  It is my favorite month every four years - and now I have to go to sleep for 47 more months until I will be in Rio for the opener.

I have taken the posts and requests to post during the regular season to heart - and will be considering it.  I do have strong reservations - but I will give it some thought in the month or two break between the end of the WC and the openers.

GL all - lets get these last 4 games in and make them winners.

thanks Van. 

Van- I hate to see you on a total of 3 goals in the ger/spain game. I know its not a play for you, but, I have the felling that the team that gets the lead will just hold it all game. Neither have come back from a goal down either. I am looking at U1 1st HF then U2.5 for the game.

As others have said, it would be nice to have someone around here that likes "soccer" as much around these parts. I do understand you put in a lot of time in other forums. Glad you at least came around during the great run of the WC.

GL rest of the way

One question, van. I know you decided not to go to South Africa because of security reasons, but you are indeed going to Brazil? I've seen numerous reports from south africa under this world cup and it has seemed very secure and the people seems very friendly down there. At least that's what we are getting shown on norwegian tv.


Brazil and Rio de Janeiro on the other hand seems to me like a far more harsh place. And I saw how the brazilian players were greeted after coming home from africa. People were attacking the bus and all hell broke loose.

I would be more weary of going to Brazil than Africa, even though I want to experience my first ever world cup myself and as soon as possible - Brazil doesn't seem like a safe place to go to.

Would like to hear your opinion on that.