2. Napoli/Genoa OVER 2 total goals @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Bet365
There is a clear gap in quality between the former champions and last season runners up Napoli and relegation fighting Genoa. Head to head Napoli won both games last season 3-2 and 2-1. Last season Napoli's matches averaged 2.5 goals per game and Genoa's 2.4. Both sides have has 2 of their past 3 games go over the total. Form wise Napoli come into this match with 3 wins and 1 draw where as Genoa have had 2 wins and 2 losses including a 10-1 beat down by Bournemouth.
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The new season kicks off today
SAT AUG 22nd
1. Napoli ML @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Pinnacle
2. Napoli/Genoa OVER 2 total goals @ 1.83/-120 (1u) Bet365
There is a clear gap in quality between the former champions and last season runners up Napoli and relegation fighting Genoa. Head to head Napoli won both games last season 3-2 and 2-1. Last season Napoli's matches averaged 2.5 goals per game and Genoa's 2.4. Both sides have has 2 of their past 3 games go over the total. Form wise Napoli come into this match with 3 wins and 1 draw where as Genoa have had 2 wins and 2 losses including a 10-1 beat down by Bournemouth.
I think we are getting a quarter of value on the Serie B champions Venecia as I had this pegged at evens. They have won their last 10 at home scoring 24 goals allowing 8. New signing from Sevilla Aker Adams becomes the clubs biggest goal threat and a signal that the club means business, Lecce just barely survived relegation last season finishing in 17th in the table.
SUN AUG 23rd
3. Venezia ML @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Bet365
I think we are getting a quarter of value on the Serie B champions Venecia as I had this pegged at evens. They have won their last 10 at home scoring 24 goals allowing 8. New signing from Sevilla Aker Adams becomes the clubs biggest goal threat and a signal that the club means business, Lecce just barely survived relegation last season finishing in 17th in the table.
4. Bologna/Lazio total cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle
A simple numbers play for me here. Lazio were the dirtiest most penalized team last season with 74 yellows and 8 reds issued against them. Bologna were 8th worse with 61 yellows and 6 reds. The referee for this match Fabio Maresca averages 5.6 yellow cards per match and .20 red cards. Once again a red cards counts as two for the wager. I had the card prop at 5.5 at evens.
MON AUG 24th
4. Bologna/Lazio total cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle
A simple numbers play for me here. Lazio were the dirtiest most penalized team last season with 74 yellows and 8 reds issued against them. Bologna were 8th worse with 61 yellows and 6 reds. The referee for this match Fabio Maresca averages 5.6 yellow cards per match and .20 red cards. Once again a red cards counts as two for the wager. I had the card prop at 5.5 at evens.
MON AUG 24th 4. Bologna/Lazio total cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle A simple numbers play for me here. Lazio were the dirtiest most penalized team last season with 74 yellows and 8 reds issued against them. Bologna were 8th worse with 61 yellows and 6 reds. The referee for this match Fabio Maresca averages 5.6 yellow cards per match and .20 red cards. Once again a red cards counts as two for the wager. I had the card prop at 5.5 at evens.
straight red is only counted as 1 though, or 2?
Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:
MON AUG 24th 4. Bologna/Lazio total cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Pinnacle A simple numbers play for me here. Lazio were the dirtiest most penalized team last season with 74 yellows and 8 reds issued against them. Bologna were 8th worse with 61 yellows and 6 reds. The referee for this match Fabio Maresca averages 5.6 yellow cards per match and .20 red cards. Once again a red cards counts as two for the wager. I had the card prop at 5.5 at evens.
5. Monza/Udinese to DRAW @ 3.12/+212 (1u) Pinnacle
These sides always play a close game. Out of the last 5 head to head games 3 ended level. Udinese's recent run of form also points to a close game with recent results of 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 & 0-1.
SAT AUG 29th
5. Monza/Udinese to DRAW @ 3.12/+212 (1u) Pinnacle
These sides always play a close game. Out of the last 5 head to head games 3 ended level. Udinese's recent run of form also points to a close game with recent results of 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 & 0-1.
These teams just played on May 16 where the line opened at 1.60/-167 for Atalanta and drifted to 1.73/-137 at kick off. Now we are getting close to evens just because they played a European game mid week? I don't think at this stage of the season there are tired players. Atalanta has won 2 of the last 3 head to head and are in good form unbeaten in their past five. Bologna have lost 3 straight heading into this away fixture.
MON AUG 31st
6. Atalanta ML @ 1.92/-108 (1u) Pinnacle
These teams just played on May 16 where the line opened at 1.60/-167 for Atalanta and drifted to 1.73/-137 at kick off. Now we are getting close to evens just because they played a European game mid week? I don't think at this stage of the season there are tired players. Atalanta has won 2 of the last 3 head to head and are in good form unbeaten in their past five. Bologna have lost 3 straight heading into this away fixture.
The last time Bologna played in Napoli back in May of this year the odds for the home side were 1.55/-182. Napoli have won 5 out of 7 head to head encounters. Both sides are in poor form. Napoli lost to Arsenal and Inter, where as Bologna are winless in their past 5 games facing much poorer opposition. Taking the home side at anything better then 1.66/-152.
SUN SEP 13th
7. Napoli ML @ 1.86/-116 (1u) Bet365
The last time Bologna played in Napoli back in May of this year the odds for the home side were 1.55/-182. Napoli have won 5 out of 7 head to head encounters. Both sides are in poor form. Napoli lost to Arsenal and Inter, where as Bologna are winless in their past 5 games facing much poorer opposition. Taking the home side at anything better then 1.66/-152.