Snowshoes

Snowshoes
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Posts: 10
Member Since: September 2017
Last Activity: 10 September 2025
Status: Offline
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

NFL Week 2 Adding:  Falcons +4.5 (-108) (B105)

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

NFL Week 2 Adding:  Commanders +3.5 -111 (Bet105)  

Good luck.

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

NFL Week 1: 1-2 for -3.78%

Week 2 Adding:  Bengals -3 (-119) (B105)

Good luck.

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

NFL Week 2 Play:  Chargers -3 (-120) BOL)

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

NFL Week 1 Adding:  2 team 6 pt teaser:  Broncos -2.5 and Seahawks +7.5 (-120) (BM)  

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

@Snowshoes

 NFL Week 1 Added Play:  3% Steelers -2.5 (-116) (BOL)

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Snowshoes 9
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created a topic NFL 2025 Season ATS Picks Thread
in NFL Betting

Spent the last 3 months working on an NFL ATS Prediction Model in R Studio  - lots of moving parts but the basics are that it's based on opponent-adjusted rolling stats + empirical-Bayes shrinkage + early-season market blend via XGBoost ensemble.  I've been handicapping the NFL for 20 years.  Plays all season will be posted here, best of luck to all.  I wager around half-Kelly so to keep things simple we'll wager (to win) 3% of bankroll per play.

NFL Week 1:  Ravens PK -110 (Bet105)

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Snowshoes 9
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replied to NFL Week 1
in NFL Betting
My mistake:

Jacksonville/Houston 1st Half Under 20 (-120)
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Snowshoes 4
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replied to NFL Week 1
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Adding:  Jacksonville/Houston Under 20 (-120)
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Snowshoes 4
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created a topic NFL Week 1
in NFL Betting
(464) Tennessee Titans -2 (1 unit)
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Snowshoes 4
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