Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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(4x) Kansas City Royals (ML) -106
(3x) Giants/Mets UNDER [7.5] -105 (3x) Rockies/Diamondbacks UNDER [9] -105 (2.5x) Arizona Diamondbacks (ML) -108 (2.5x) Cincinnati Reds (-1 RL) +101 (2x) Milwaukee Brewers (ML) +121 (1.5x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +171 Good luck today everyone. |
Iced | 10 |
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Lol, April 5, not April 4. My bad.
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Iced | 2 |
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Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Moneylines: (1x) Los Angeles Angels (ML) +100 (1x) Colorado Rockies (ML) -101 (1x) Houston Astros (ML) +157 -1.5 Runline: (1x) New York Yankees (-1.5 RL) +105 -1 Runlines: (1x) Florida Marlins (-1 RL) -105 (1x) Philadelphia Phillies (-1 RL) -124 Totals: (1x) Giants/Padres UNDER [7] +105 (1x) National/Marlins UNDER [9] -115 Average line: +103 A lot of plays today, good luck everyone. |
Iced | 2 |
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Adding:
(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +146 I started the season betting for the Rangers against the Red Sox in every single game of the sweep. Coming off this emotional high, I don't see the Rangers keeping it up against the Mariners. Erik Bedard is coming off a strong spring training with a 3.15 ERA. In the previous two seasons Bedard has pitched, he has done exceptionally well in the first two months of the season -- with a 1.80 ERA in March and a 2.47 ERA in April. He also has a pretty good career average against this Rangers line-up of .255. The Rangers have traditionally done worse against lefties as well. In Derek Holland's limited MLB experience (only 89 innings pitched) he has a staggering 5.52 ERA. The Mariners should be able to score on Holland, and the Mariners have done well against lefties in the past. I'm again taking the value and the veteran pitcher here. (1x) Pirates/Cardinals OVER [9] +110 I know I said I didn't want to play any totals this early in the season, but this game is looking nice. The Cards have a career batting average against Charlie Morton of .479 and the Bucs have a career batting average against Kyle Lohse of .389. Morton has a career ERA against the Cards of 7.77 and Lohse has 4.58 ERA against the Bucs over the past three years. Charlie Morton even has a 12.57 ERA in April for his career. And last but not least, there is the wind. The wind is blowing into centerfield at 19 MPH, which will definitely help to carry some balls. I like this even more since I'm getting plus-money on it. That's it for tonight, good luck everyone. 2011 MLB Record: 9-8-1 (+1.24 units) |
Iced | 6 |
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Monday, April 4, 2011
(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118 ----- WIN (+1x) Adding: (1x) Minnesota Twins (ML) +151 I really like the value from the Twins here. The Yanks are a big public favorite (64% on the Yanks), which is why I waited for the line to move from last night. The line opened at Twins +135 and I just now got it at +151. Scott Baker is a 6 year veteran who will be ready to pitch under the lights during Monday Night baseball on ESPN. The Yankees have only been average against Scott Baker throughout his career, and I think that should be enough for this game. Ivan Nova has pitched a mere 42 innings in his career and now he is forced into the Yankees starting rotation because of their lack of depth. In Nova's very short MLB career, he has a 5.50 ERA at night and a 3.75 ERA during the day -- indicating he gets the jitters when under pressure. Take the more experienced pitcher and the value here, go with the Twins. And yes, this write-up wasn't my best, sorry I'm dealing with a few different things rights now. I'm getting this write-up in now because the game starts in fifteen minutes, I'll be back in a few with two more dog plays and write-ups. 2011 MLB Record: 9-8-1 (+1.24 units) |
Iced | 6 |
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Monday, April 4, 2011
(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118 The Orioles are coming off an impressive sweep of the Rays and the Tigers are coming off a two-to-one series loss against the Yanks. The O's should be plenty energized for their first home game of the season. Rick Porcello has been poor against the Tigers in his career, the Tigers have a batting average of .351 against Porcello. Away from home, Porcello has an ERA of 4.79 as compared to 4.10 at home. In Porcello's two year career, he has been absolutely terrible in April -- with a 7.19 ERA. Porcello finished his last spring training game by giving up five runs in five innings to the Nationals. In Jake Arrieta's one career start against the Tigers, he was stellar -- with a 1.42 ERA and the current Tigers lineup only has a .217 average against Arrieta. Arietta has a 1.93 career ERA against righties and 7.04 career ERA against lefties -- and the Tigers only have two left-handed batters, their crappy catcher and second basement (Avila and Rhymes). Arrieta might be a strong play for me throughout the season against lineups lacking in left-handed batters. The Detroit Tigers are an absolutely terrible on the road, they had the fifth-worst road record in the whole MLB last season even though they finished 16th overall. The Orioles played better at home than on the road. I think Buck Showalter continues his impressive run with the Orioles and starts the season 4-0. Total Leans (not playing totals this early in the season): - Tigers/Orioles OVER 9.5 - Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9 Good luck today everyone. Yesterday's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101023538 2011 MLB Record: 8-8-1 (+0.24 units) |
Iced | 6 |
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Sunday, April 3, 2011
(2x) Florida Marlins (ML) -132 ----- LOSS (-2.64x) (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +128 ----- WIN (+1.28x) I don't often see games that I like as much as the Marlins/Mets game this early in the season. Unfortunately, the game just didn't go our way. The Marlins had three more hits the Mets but they had seven less runs. The Marlins also had three errors to the Mets' zero. I've lost a few games so far in the season backing teams who have had multiple errors. I usually don't consider defense when I handicap my games, but I think I might have to take a closer look at defense, especially this early in the season when teams are still getting into the swing of things. I bet on the Rangers against the Red Sox every single game of the series, winning all of them. I'm slightly surprised with how this game played out -- Clay Buchholz gave up four solo shots this game when he only gave up nine all of last year. I was expecting more singles and doubles with some walks sprinkled in. I'll take the four dingers though. Matt Harrison, the big lefty for the Rangers, had a very good game just like I expected. I think the Sox will have a tough time against lefties all year. I see a lot of guys on here already down a bunch of units and starting to chase, which is unfortunate. This is only the fourth day of the season, there are still over 2000 games left. Keeping your unit size between one and three units and playing a lot of dogs and slight favorites can make a baseball very profitable even if you just hit around 50%. I don't have any more plays for today, and I'm currently looking at Monday's games. I will most likely be playing my first total of the season, and it might be for two units if the lines-makers give me a good number. There is another team total I have a slight lean towards as of right now, and I might make a play on that for a unit or half a unit. The season is young guys, there's still plenty of games left, and plenty of profit to be made. 2011 MLB Record: 8-8-1 (+0.24 units) |
Iced | 2 |
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Sunday, April 3, 2011
(2x) Florida Marlins (ML) -132 This is my favorite play of the day and it's my first play over one unit for the 2011 MLB season. After dropping his fast ball below 89 MPH for the 2010 season, Javier Vazques has restored his velocity and has been consistently hitting in the 89-91 MPH range this spring. This Mets line-up only has a .206 average against Vazquez. Over the past three years, Vazquez has done considerably better in day games than night games, with an ERA over half of a point better during the day. Vazquez's ERA against the Mets the past three years is 2.70. Moving from the hostile AL East to the not as batting-heavy division of the NL East should help Vazques's numbers this year. RA Dickey has been absolutely pathetic the past three years in April (6.00 ERA) and during day games (5.02 ERA during the day, 3.37 ERA at night). Dickey's ERA against the Marlins the past three years is 7.36 and the Marlins line-up has a very impressive batting average against Dickey of .380. Dickey had the best season of his career last year, but I expect him to come back to Earth this year. This is the most chalk I've laid thus far this season, but I'm very confident in the Marlins here. (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +128 I'm going with the Rangers for the third straight day here this Sunday. Matt Harrison, the Ranger's starting pitcher has had an impressive spring training. His velocity has improved and he has perfected some of his off-speed pitches. This Red Sox line-up is stacked with left-handed hitters, and Matt Harrison should be able to counter-act that since he is a left-handed pitcher himself. The current Red Sox lineup has a not-so-impressive batting average against Harrison of .233. Clay Buchholz did not ever pitch for more than four innings this entire spring, so there is no guarantee that Buchholz will be able to go deep into this game. Buchholz has a losing record in April throughout his career and the current Rangers lineup has a pretty good batting average against Buchholz of .303. I think that fading the Red Sox against left-handed pitchers will be a good strategy this year when the match-up calls for it, and this is one of those match-ups. The public will be pounding the Red Sox here figuring that the Red Sox can't be swept, and because Clay Buchholz is a more recognized name than Matt Harrison. Stick with the Rangers dog play here to sweep the Red Sox. I might have some more plays, but these are my favorite plays for this Sunday. I'm hoping to get back on pace with another profitable day here. Good luck today everyone. Yesterday's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101022556 2011 MLB Record: 7-7-1 (+1.6 units) |
Iced | 2 |
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Saturday, April 2, 2011
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) -114 ----- WIN (+1x) (1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Milwaukee Brewers (ML) +105 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Arizona Diamondbacks (ML) +145 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +165 ----- WIN (+1.65x) Very disappointing day. I only had one play I really liked today and that was the Rangers. I probably should have played them for more than one unit and dropped another game or two completely. I'm hoping for a strong bounce-back on Sunday. I have a few strong leans, I'll probably post my initial plays soon. 2011 MLB Record: 7-7-1 (+1.6x) |
Iced | 7 |
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Rangers up, Brewers down, and DBacks tied up.
Adding: (1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +165 |
Iced | 7 |
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Saturday, April 2, 2011
(1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170 ----- LOSS (-1x)
Adding:
(1x) Milwaukee Brewers (ML) +105 (1x) Arizona Diamondbacks (ML) +145 2011 MLB Record: 5-5-1 (+0.95x) |
Iced | 7 |
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Thanks cubicman.
Adding: (1x) Cleveland Indians (ML) +118 (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +170 The Indians are a solid dog pick. I don't really think that the Bucs will win this game, as opposed to last game where I was confident in their victory. However, the Cubs are getting way too much respect. I'll take a +170 dog against the Cubbies any day. Will be adding more plays later. |
Iced | 7 |
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Saturday, April 2, 2011 (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) -114 This is the only play that has jumped out at me so far. Colby Lewis pitches well in the beginning of the season (2.76 ERA in April over the past three years) and he pitches well against the Red Sox, with a 3.12 ERA lifetime ERA against the Red Sox. The current Red Sox lineup only has a .188 batting average against Lewis. John Lackey, on the other hand, pitches poorly at the beginning of the season (4.50 ERA in April over the past three years) and he pitches poorly against the Rangers, with a 5.74 lifetime ERA against them and a 6.11 lifetime ERA at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The current Rangers lineup has an impressive .303 batting average against Lackey. If Lackey gets pounded early, which I expect to happen, the Red Sox will have to use their sub-par bullpen, and that will only mean more bad news for the Red Sox. Take the Rangers and the slight chalk here to win back-to-back games against the Red Sox. I will probably add more plays later today, but this is probably my favorite play of the day. I don't think I will bet more than one unit per game until the season finally kicks into full gear. The same goes with totals, they're just too unpredictable right now for me to bet on, I need more data. I was posting in my season-long thread (see: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101020236) but I wasn't getting much love there. It's much more easy to access plays by looking at the first post of a thread rather than digging through a season-long thread of plays.Good luck today boys. 2011 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (+2.95 units) |
Iced | 7 |
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Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x) (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x) (1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130 --- WIN (+1.3x) (1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119 ----- WIN (+1x) (1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110 ----- LOSS (-1x) (1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110 ----- LOSS (-1.1x) I think from now on, I'm just going to start a new thread with my picks each day -- they seem to draw more interest than season-long threads. I will still be keeping a season record though. 2011 MLB Record: 5-3-1 (+2.95 units) |
Iced | 20 |
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Friday, April 1, 2011
(1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x) (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x) (1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130 --- WIN (+1.3x) (1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119 ----- WIN (+1x) Plays already in progress: (1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110 (1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110 2011 MLB Record: 5-1-1 (+5.05 units) |
Iced | 20 |
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Alright, I lied about the Giants being my final play. I am adding:
(1x) Oakland Athletics (ML) -110 The Blue Jays are up 10-0 in the fifth, all they have to do is win the ML. The Marlins are up 5-0 in the sixth and Josh Johnson is currently pitching a no hitter, they are looking really good right now to cover the -1.5 RL at +130. |
Iced | 20 |
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Ergh, what happend with the formatting there? I wish there was a preview post button.
I meant to quote my previous play on the Blue Jays. I dunno why my Giants play got posted twice. Record is correct. Sorry about that guys. |
Iced | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Iced: Friday, April 1, 2011 (1x) Houston Astros (+1 RL) +172 ----- PUSH (1x) Pittsburgh Pirates (ML) +163 ----- WIN (+1.63x) (1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +112 ----- WIN (+1.12x) (1x) Florida Marlins (-1.5 RL) +130 Quote Originally Posted by Iced: Adding: (1x) Toronto Blue Jays (ML) -119 Adding: (1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110 Nice win for the Rangers. I'm surprised the Sox bullpen held up for so long. Adding: (1x) San Francisco Giants (ML) +110 This will be my last play for the night. 2011 MLB Record: 3-1-1 (+2.75 units) |
Iced | 20 |
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Thanks Yankees. The Astros blew the lead in the bottom of the 9th, that would have been a nice +1.72 units if not for the blown save.
I'm actually a BoSox fan, but I'm not biased when it comes to betting. Let's go Rangers! |
Iced | 20 |
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Thanks Jose.
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Iced | 20 |
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