(2x) Florida Marlins (ML) -132
This is my favorite play of the day and it's my first play over one unit for the 2011 MLB season. After dropping his fast ball below 89 MPH for the 2010 season, Javier Vazques has restored his velocity and has been consistently hitting in the 89-91 MPH range this spring. This Mets line-up only has a .206 average against Vazquez. Over the past three years, Vazquez has done considerably better in day games than night games, with an ERA over half of a point better during the day. Vazquez's ERA against the Mets the past three years is 2.70. Moving from the hostile AL East to the not as batting-heavy division of the NL East should help Vazques's numbers this year. RA Dickey has been absolutely pathetic the past three years in April (6.00 ERA) and during day games (5.02 ERA during the day, 3.37 ERA at night). Dickey's ERA against the Marlins the past three years is 7.36 and the Marlins line-up has a very impressive batting average against Dickey of .380. Dickey had the best season of his career last year, but I expect him to come back to Earth this year. This is the most chalk I've laid thus far this season, but I'm very confident in the Marlins here.
(1x) Texas Rangers (ML) +128
I'm going with the Rangers for the third straight day here this Sunday. Matt Harrison, the Ranger's starting pitcher has had an impressive spring training. His velocity has improved and he has perfected some of his off-speed pitches. This Red Sox line-up is stacked with left-handed hitters, and Matt Harrison should be able to counter-act that since he is a left-handed pitcher himself. The current Red Sox lineup has a not-so-impressive batting average against Harrison of .233. Clay Buchholz did not ever pitch for more than four innings this entire spring, so there is no guarantee that Buchholz will be able to go deep into this game. Buchholz has a losing record in April throughout his career and the current Rangers lineup has a pretty good batting average against Buchholz of .303. I think that fading the Red Sox against left-handed pitchers will be a good strategy this year when the match-up calls for it, and this is one of those match-ups. The public will be pounding the Red Sox here figuring that the Red Sox can't be swept, and because Clay Buchholz is a more recognized name than Matt Harrison. Stick with the Rangers dog play here to sweep the Red Sox.
I might have some more plays, but these are my favorite plays for this Sunday. I'm hoping to get back on pace with another profitable day here. Good luck today everyone.
Yesterday's thread: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101022556
2011 MLB Record: 7-7-1 (+1.6 units)