(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118 The Orioles are coming off an impressive sweep
of the Rays and the Tigers are coming off a two-to-one series loss
against the Yanks. The O's should be plenty energized for their first
home game of the season. Rick Porcello has been poor against the Tigers
in his career, the Tigers have a batting average of .351 against
Porcello. Away from home, Porcello has an ERA of 4.79 as compared to
4.10 at home. In Porcello's two year career, he has been absolutely
terrible in April -- with a 7.19 ERA. Porcello finished his last spring
training game by giving up five runs in five innings to the Nationals.
In Jake Arrieta's one career start against the Tigers, he was stellar
-- with a 1.42 ERA and the current Tigers lineup only has a .217
average against Arrieta. Arietta has a 1.93 career ERA against righties
and 7.04 career ERA against lefties -- and the Tigers only have two
left-handed batters, their crappy catcher and second basement (Avila
and Rhymes). Arrieta might be a strong play for me throughout the
season against lineups lacking in left-handed batters. The Detroit
Tigers are an absolutely terrible on the road, they had the fifth-worst
road record in the whole MLB last season even though they finished 16th
overall. The Orioles played better at home than on the road. I think
Buck Showalter continues his impressive run with the Orioles and starts
the season 4-0.
Total Leans (not playing totals this early in the season):
- Tigers/Orioles OVER 9.5
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9
(1x) Baltimore Orioles (ML) -118 The Orioles are coming off an impressive sweep
of the Rays and the Tigers are coming off a two-to-one series loss
against the Yanks. The O's should be plenty energized for their first
home game of the season. Rick Porcello has been poor against the Tigers
in his career, the Tigers have a batting average of .351 against
Porcello. Away from home, Porcello has an ERA of 4.79 as compared to
4.10 at home. In Porcello's two year career, he has been absolutely
terrible in April -- with a 7.19 ERA. Porcello finished his last spring
training game by giving up five runs in five innings to the Nationals.
In Jake Arrieta's one career start against the Tigers, he was stellar
-- with a 1.42 ERA and the current Tigers lineup only has a .217
average against Arrieta. Arietta has a 1.93 career ERA against righties
and 7.04 career ERA against lefties -- and the Tigers only have two
left-handed batters, their crappy catcher and second basement (Avila
and Rhymes). Arrieta might be a strong play for me throughout the
season against lineups lacking in left-handed batters. The Detroit
Tigers are an absolutely terrible on the road, they had the fifth-worst
road record in the whole MLB last season even though they finished 16th
overall. The Orioles played better at home than on the road. I think
Buck Showalter continues his impressive run with the Orioles and starts
the season 4-0.
Total Leans (not playing totals this early in the season):
- Tigers/Orioles OVER 9.5
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER 9
Adding: (1x) Minnesota Twins (ML) +151 I really like the value from the Twins here. The Yanks are a big public favorite (64% on the Yanks), which is why I waited for the line to move from last night. The line opened at Twins +135 and I just now got it at +151. Scott Baker is a 6 year veteran who will be ready to pitch under the lights during Monday Night baseball on ESPN. The Yankees have only been average against Scott Baker throughout his career, and I think that should be enough for this game. Ivan Nova has pitched a mere 42 innings in his career and now he is forced into the Yankees starting rotation because of their lack of depth. In Nova's very short MLB career, he has a 5.50 ERA at night and a 3.75 ERA during the day -- indicating he gets the jitters when under pressure. Take the more experienced pitcher and the value here, go with the Twins. And yes, this write-up wasn't my best, sorry I'm dealing with a few different things rights now.
I'm getting this write-up in now because the game starts in fifteen minutes, I'll be back in a few with two more dog plays and write-ups.
Adding: (1x) Minnesota Twins (ML) +151 I really like the value from the Twins here. The Yanks are a big public favorite (64% on the Yanks), which is why I waited for the line to move from last night. The line opened at Twins +135 and I just now got it at +151. Scott Baker is a 6 year veteran who will be ready to pitch under the lights during Monday Night baseball on ESPN. The Yankees have only been average against Scott Baker throughout his career, and I think that should be enough for this game. Ivan Nova has pitched a mere 42 innings in his career and now he is forced into the Yankees starting rotation because of their lack of depth. In Nova's very short MLB career, he has a 5.50 ERA at night and a 3.75 ERA during the day -- indicating he gets the jitters when under pressure. Take the more experienced pitcher and the value here, go with the Twins. And yes, this write-up wasn't my best, sorry I'm dealing with a few different things rights now.
I'm getting this write-up in now because the game starts in fifteen minutes, I'll be back in a few with two more dog plays and write-ups.
(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +146 I started the season betting for the Rangers against the Red Sox in every single game of the sweep. Coming off this emotional high, I don't see the Rangers keeping it up against the Mariners. Erik Bedard is coming off a strong spring training with a 3.15 ERA. In the previous two seasons Bedard has pitched, he has done exceptionally well in the first two months of the season -- with a 1.80 ERA in March and a 2.47 ERA in April. He also has a pretty good career average against this Rangers line-up of .255. The Rangers have traditionally done worse against lefties as well. In Derek Holland's limited MLB experience (only 89 innings pitched) he has a staggering 5.52 ERA. The Mariners should be able to score on Holland, and the Mariners have done well against lefties in the past. I'm again taking the value and the veteran pitcher here.
(1x) Pirates/Cardinals OVER [9] +110 I know I said I didn't want to play any totals this early in the season, but this game is looking nice. The Cards have a career batting average against Charlie Morton of .479 and the Bucs have a career batting average against Kyle Lohse of .389. Morton has a career ERA against the Cards of 7.77 and Lohse has 4.58 ERA against the Bucs over the past three years. Charlie Morton even has a 12.57 ERA in April for his career. And last but not least, there is the wind. The wind is blowing into centerfield at 19 MPH, which will definitely help to carry some balls. I like this even more since I'm getting plus-money on it.
(1x) Seattle Mariners (ML) +146 I started the season betting for the Rangers against the Red Sox in every single game of the sweep. Coming off this emotional high, I don't see the Rangers keeping it up against the Mariners. Erik Bedard is coming off a strong spring training with a 3.15 ERA. In the previous two seasons Bedard has pitched, he has done exceptionally well in the first two months of the season -- with a 1.80 ERA in March and a 2.47 ERA in April. He also has a pretty good career average against this Rangers line-up of .255. The Rangers have traditionally done worse against lefties as well. In Derek Holland's limited MLB experience (only 89 innings pitched) he has a staggering 5.52 ERA. The Mariners should be able to score on Holland, and the Mariners have done well against lefties in the past. I'm again taking the value and the veteran pitcher here.
(1x) Pirates/Cardinals OVER [9] +110 I know I said I didn't want to play any totals this early in the season, but this game is looking nice. The Cards have a career batting average against Charlie Morton of .479 and the Bucs have a career batting average against Kyle Lohse of .389. Morton has a career ERA against the Cards of 7.77 and Lohse has 4.58 ERA against the Bucs over the past three years. Charlie Morton even has a 12.57 ERA in April for his career. And last but not least, there is the wind. The wind is blowing into centerfield at 19 MPH, which will definitely help to carry some balls. I like this even more since I'm getting plus-money on it.
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