Dale66

Everyone on NHL Twitter loves hammering goalie saves props.

Here’s why most of you are donating money.

??

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1. The Illusion of Volume

“Team X allows a ton of shots ? goalie save OVER is free money.”

Wrong.

Shot quality > shot quantity.

30 low-danger wristers from the point ? 20 high-danger slot chances.

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2. The Bookmakers Know

Goalie save props are some of the SHARPEST lines in sports.

Why? Because they’re easy to model with advanced stats (Corsi, Fenwick, xGA).

You’re not smarter than their models just because you saw a team give up 40 SOG last night.

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3. Goalie Variance is Insane

NHL goalies have wild swings game-to-game.

One hot stretch and they’re unbeatable.

One bad bounce and they get pulled after 2 periods.

Your “safe” over evaporates instantly.

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4. The Market Trap

Save props are popular because they feel predictable.

But think about this:

Would Vegas keep hanging them every night if casuals were beating them?

Nope. They’re pure bait.

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5. The Real Edge in NHL

If you want to beat hockey betting, focus on:

Team totals (spotting mispriced offense/defense matchups)

Correlated same-game parlays (ex: player point + team over)

Situational spots (road trips, back-to-backs, travel fatigue)

Leave goalie saves to the public chasers.

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?? Hot take:

NHL goalie props are the slot machines of hockey betting.

Fun to play, almost impossible to beat long-term.

Agree or disagree? ??

Had to share this one because it still hurts.

Weekend Premier League action — I put together a 4-leg parlay: two favorites at home, one draw I felt good about, and one “safe” over 1.5 goals pick. All in, I was looking at a $75 stake to win just over $900.

Everything was smooth until the last match — my over 1.5 goals leg. First half, both teams playing wide open, shots flying… but somehow 0–0 at halftime. I’m thinking “no big deal, goals are coming.”

Second half? Red card. Defensive bunker. Full-time whistle: 0–0. Parlay dead.

That’s the beauty and pain of soccer betting — 90 minutes of tension for 0 goals.

Anyone else get crushed like this lately? Do you guys still parlay soccer matches, or stick to singles now?

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Most NHL totals open at 6.5 goals.

Casual bettors hammer the over — who doesn’t love goals?

But pros treat 6.5 like a loaded trap. Here's why ??

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Key stat:

The average NHL game lands between 5.8 – 6.2 goals.

So a total at 6.5 isn’t random — it’s the book saying:

"Want to sweat an over that loses more than it wins?"

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What to look for before betting over 6.5:

Two aggressive power play units

Weak penalty kills

Goaltenders on back-to-backs

High shot volume teams (35+ shots/game)

If you don’t see 2+ of those? Be careful.

4/

On the flip side, 6.5 unders cash more than you’d think.

Especially in:

Division rival games

First games after road trips

Playoff-style matchups (tight checking)

5/

Books love setting totals at 6.5 because they know public perception > probability.

Overs are fun.

Unders pay.

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End

You betting totals this NHL season? What’s your favorite angle? ????

1. Betting MLB isn’t for the weak.

You’ll get killed chasing favorites, and underdogs will make you doubt your sanity.

2. Bullpens will blow 4-run leads.

Superstars take random off days.

And managers pinch-hit your +600 HR pick in the 5th.

3. You want to bet baseball?

Bet numbers, not teams.

Attack mispriced lines, not big names.

4. Stop betting -160 like it’s safe.

Even the best teams lose 60+ times a season.

Value lives in +120 to +160 dogs — if you time it right.

5. Market moves matter.

That -105 turning into -120 tells you more than any “expert pick.”

6. Keep your eyes on:

– Bullpen usage

– Weather (especially wind)

– Reverse line movement

– Team travel/schedule spots

7. Most importantly?

Avoid 15¢ lines like the plague.

You're not beating MLB long term paying that kind of tax.

8. Wanna get creative?

Use parlays to multiply +EV spots — not to chase big paydays.

2- or 3-leg max, built with logic and line value.

?? For value checks, use a parlay odds calculator before you lock anything in.

Bet with your brain — not your heart.

@Puckhandler

 Exactly 

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You don’t watch college football.

You just bet the team with the cooler mascot and pray.

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Someone’s gonna drop 73 points in Week 1 and bettors will act shocked.

It’s the most chaotic betting sport on earth.

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Lines open Sunday, move 7 points by Tuesday, and you still bet it Friday night like it’s brand new.

4/

Favorites win, dogs cover.

Except when they don’t.

Which is every Saturday.

5/

Welcome to hell.

Let’s ride.

1/

Everyone’s focused on NFL, NBA, and UFC.

Meanwhile, NHL is where sharp bettors quietly grind value all season long.

Here’s why NHL betting still offers genuine edges — if you know what to look for ??

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Lower Betting Volume = Slower Moving Lines

Books move fast on NFL spreads.

But NHL lines — especially totals and player props — move much slower.

That delay?

It's gold for bettors who track line movement, injuries, and goalie news.

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3/

Public Action Doesn’t Rule the Market

The average NHL bettor doesn’t impact the lines like they do in football.

Less square money = fewer overreactions = cleaner markets.

That means the value sticks around longer.

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4/

Goalie News Is EVERYTHING

Most casuals barely look at who’s in net.

But a backup goalie on a back-to-back changes everything:

– Moneyline risk

– Over/under totals

– Even player shot props

Sharps monitor goalie confirmations obsessively.

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5/

Empty Net Chaos = Opportunity

Late-game betting in the NHL is a hidden gem.

You can catch huge value live when a team pulls the goalie early — especially if the market hasn’t adjusted totals or props yet.

6 minutes of 6-on-5 = a mini goal explosion waiting to happen.

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6/

OT/Shootout Variance Creates Upsets

NHL games are tight. Nearly 25% go to OT.

That makes underdogs much more dangerous — and often underpriced.

If you can model tight matchups, the +EV dog opportunities are better than most leagues.

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7/

Books Still Misprice Props

Unlike NBA/NFL, where prop models are dialed in, NHL props are still… soft.

– Shots on goal

– Power play points

– Time on ice

– 1st period totals

If you follow beat reporters and advanced stats (like xGF or Corsi), you can beat the market.

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8/

Bottom line?

NHL isn’t just for hardcore fans.

It’s one of the last leagues where books are beatable with solid info, smart modeling, and timing.

Don’t sleep on hockey ??

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What’s your edge in NHL betting?

Are you fading favorites on back-to-backs?

Betting alternate totals live?

Drop your best angles ??

Yeah man, I agree — underdog pitchers definitely offer value if you're disciplined. The market overreacts to team records and forgets that a solid SP can flip the whole matchup, especially when facing a team that struggles vs lefties or has a travel disadvantage.

I actually missed that Ray start vs the Mets — classic revenge angle, and you're right about SF being on a slide. Do you ever hedge when your value pick has a shaky bullpen behind them? I've had a few heartbreakers where a solid 6-inning start goes to waste.

Also curious — are you tracking your ROI on those underdog SP bets, or going off feel + trend watching?

Hey everyone,

Been following MLB pretty closely this year and noticed how volatile the odds have been — especially with bullpen collapses, injuries, and teams randomly deciding to rest half their lineup on Sundays ??

I’ve mostly been betting moneylines and unders lately, but I’ve also started building some parlays across multiple games — usually 2–3 legs max. Risk goes up fast, but the payouts are tempting if you're strategic with pitcher matchups and travel schedules.

Curious what others are doing: – Are you sticking to single bets or mixing in parlays? – Any teams you've been riding (or fading) consistently? – How much weight do you give to bullpen stats or umpire trends?

Feels like the betting world has changed more in the last 5 years than the previous 20.

You’ve got:

Sportsbooks everywhere — in ads, on broadcasts, even sponsoring teams

Live betting, micro bets, cashouts, and now same-game parlays as the norm

Algorithms and AI models being used by casual bettors

Gamblers being marketed to like influencers — daily boosts, "streaks", loyalty tiers

And on the other end... people going broke chasing +1000 parlays on a Tuesday night

I’m not against it — I bet too. But I do wonder:

Is this becoming a long-term, sustainable part of sports culture? Or are we heading for some kind of crash or correction?

Are books getting too sharp? Are promos drying up?

What happens when casual bettors stop “having fun” and realize they never win?

Just throwing it out there. Curious what others think — is this peak betting? Or just the beginning?