Everyone on NHL Twitter loves hammering goalie saves props.
Here’s why most of you are donating money.
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1. The Illusion of Volume
“Team X allows a ton of shots ? goalie save OVER is free money.”
Wrong.
Shot quality > shot quantity.
30 low-danger wristers from the point ? 20 high-danger slot chances.
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2. The Bookmakers Know
Goalie save props are some of the SHARPEST lines in sports.
Why? Because they’re easy to model with advanced stats (Corsi, Fenwick, xGA).
You’re not smarter than their models just because you saw a team give up 40 SOG last night.
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3. Goalie Variance is Insane
NHL goalies have wild swings game-to-game.
One hot stretch and they’re unbeatable.
One bad bounce and they get pulled after 2 periods.
Your “safe” over evaporates instantly.
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4. The Market Trap
Save props are popular because they feel predictable.
But think about this:
Would Vegas keep hanging them every night if casuals were beating them?
Nope. They’re pure bait.
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5. The Real Edge in NHL
If you want to beat hockey betting, focus on:
Team totals (spotting mispriced offense/defense matchups)
Correlated same-game parlays (ex: player point + team over)
Situational spots (road trips, back-to-backs, travel fatigue)
Leave goalie saves to the public chasers.
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?? Hot take:
NHL goalie props are the slot machines of hockey betting.
Fun to play, almost impossible to beat long-term.
Agree or disagree? ??
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