Anyone Finding Value This Season?

Hey everyone,

Been following MLB pretty closely this year and noticed how volatile the odds have been — especially with bullpen collapses, injuries, and teams randomly deciding to rest half their lineup on Sundays ??

I’ve mostly been betting moneylines and unders lately, but I’ve also started building some parlays across multiple games — usually 2–3 legs max. Risk goes up fast, but the payouts are tempting if you're strategic with pitcher matchups and travel schedules.

Curious what others are doing: – Are you sticking to single bets or mixing in parlays? – Any teams you've been riding (or fading) consistently? – How much weight do you give to bullpen stats or umpire trends?

Value betting under dog starting pitchers is the most profitable in mlb. You have to be very selective when picking games because  there are simply to many games to pick from in a day. In fact Robbie Ray is one of the most profitable under dog pitchers. Today was a good example of a Giants team on a losing streak getting Robbie Ray as an underdog is really good value against the Mets in a revenge game. The only issue you will have to deal with is bullpens and that’s when your value plays can be in jeopardy. 

Robbie Ray as an underdog pitcher was 15-7 (68.2%) this season 

Yeah man, I agree — underdog pitchers definitely offer value if you're disciplined. The market overreacts to team records and forgets that a solid SP can flip the whole matchup, especially when facing a team that struggles vs lefties or has a travel disadvantage.

I actually missed that Ray start vs the Mets — classic revenge angle, and you're right about SF being on a slide. Do you ever hedge when your value pick has a shaky bullpen behind them? I've had a few heartbreakers where a solid 6-inning start goes to waste.

Also curious — are you tracking your ROI on those underdog SP bets, or going off feel + trend watching?

I use under dog pitchers database to see who’s pitching for the day then look at the pitchers game log and see if they are in a revenge spot, losing streak, win streak, or road home home trends for example Robbie Ray wins on the road as an underdog more than at home. 

Today is another example of being very selective as you could get Skubal as an underdog against the Phillies. Skubal is 15-6 (71.4%) as an under dog a great value play.

These were the only 2 games I’ve played this week as again I emphasized very selective plays as you have to be patient and look for value plays. The average better cannot be this patient and instead want volume plays everyday in which I done in NFL years ago. 

Also take note that Zack Wheeler is an impressive 14-7 (66.7%) as an under dog  so should the opportunity presents its self in a revenge game against the tigers in the future the value will be with the Phillies assuming they are dogs. 

Value over time