Last week, we saw some underdogs do well. The long drivers with good club head speed. Also, the guys in form stayed in form. The top ten was Bridgeman, Kitayama, McIlroy, Scott, Potgeiter, Knapp, Morikawa, Cam Young, Fleetwood, Fox, and Schauffele. In 12th place was Scheffler (who came back from dead last), Min Woo Lee, Noren, and Spieth. Keep an eye on these men next week and in the coming month with any long courses and courses with rough. I have noticed time and again Adam Scott able to hit miraculous approach shots out of the rough. Don’t forget that.
Who else is in form going into the Cognizant? This season, our shot gain leader so far are Scheffler, McIlroy, N Hojgaard, Knapp, Fleetwood, Bridgeman, Matsuyama, SW Kim, Gerard, Gotterup, Min Woo Lee, P. Coody, Dahmen, Fox, Scott, Morikawa, and Hisatsune. If you can get a good number on any of them, go for it.
But who fits THIS course? With the bear trap! What kind of course is it? It is hard, we know that, just like last week. So bogey avoidance is key. There is a LOT of water in play, so accuracy OTT and on approach is important. Distant matters less than accuracy. Approach is key. GIR counts. So does sand saves. We want guys like Lowry, Gerard, and N Hojgaard (of course those are the top 3 favorites). But who is like them at better odds? Kirk, Homa, Jeager, Higgo, Kevin Yu, Eckroat, Cole, Dahmen, Horschel, Hodges, Kuchar, Hadwin, Putnam, Van Rooyen, and Garnett are all good at avoiding bogeys and have good history. Pavon doesn’t seem to be a good fit but likes the course. Highsmith is out of form but won last year. Horschel has done well and seems like a good fit, but is out of form. If he has a good day 1 or 2, I might add him. Fishburn also is a good fit, but he has been out of form last year and now. Also on my watchlist.
I want to call out Dahmen in particular because he is top10 in shots gained this year and a good fit for this course. 86-1.
Kuchar is good value at 100-1. This is his course.
I keep seeing Higgo (58-1), Kirk (48-1), and Garnett (260-1) in my research. I like them at odds >40-1.
I am nervous about these elite golfers: Berger, Smalley, Zalatoris, Homa, and Cole. They have all won and can win. Decent odds on these guys (all between 33-1 and 84-1). Berger, Smalley, Cole, and Homa are good fits here. However, they are out of form. So cautiously nervous.
Hoey is 42-1 and good bogey avoider and had a great start his year. I think that is fair odds, not good, not bad.
It’s only Monday, but my initial plan is to take some long odds on my card. Then I hope to add players who struggle Day 1/2 like Lowry, Gerard, Hojgaard, Berger, Smalley, Zalaoris, and Homa.
Homa and Kirk at 48-1 are just long enough to bet outright.
Who do you like?
Hot Forum Topics
