This is not my work but that of a handicaper that I have a lot of respect for. Take a look and make your own decision. But i'm going heavy on this one
The markets do not fully appreciate how good Nevada is. The markets do not fully appreciate how bad Louisiana Tech is. That opens the door to step up here with value in both directions, and a game that can easily be decided by more than double the pointspread that has been set.
We have written the Nevada tale before – a team that had some difficult early challenges while developing new faces on the roster has some scores that weight down the power rating. Now the pieces have come together, and there is tremendous upside. Olek Czyz was only around for a few minutes in non-conference play, but the Duke transfer has quickly shown that he can be one of the best players in the conference, averaging 19.0 points and 5.8 rebounds in six league games, at a sparkling 67.2 percent from the field, which includes 50 percent from 3-point range. Deonte Burton does not look like a FR anymore, averaging 16.8 ppg in WAC play, including 45.8 percent of his triples. Malik Story and Dario Hunt are also averaging in double figures, and now that a talent corps has had a chance has had a chance to play together the potential is showing – they won wire-to-wire at Boise State last Saturday night, and then routed New Mexico State 90-71 here on Thursday. But David Carter walked away frustrated from what he thought was lazy play late in Thursday’s win, especially given up a pair of wide-open triples, and that helps to set the tone for a focus to go the full 40 minutes here, helping to lock the back door shut.
From Carter - "You have to play 40 minutes. You have to know your assignments. If you slip up in a game that's a blowout, you're going to do it in a game that's close. You have to have little learning experiences like that. You still can't give up shots. Don't play the scoreboard; play the game. There was a couple of things at the end that I didn't like because we just assumed we were going to win, and you can't do that. You have to play until the buzzer sounds."
This is all bad news for a Louisiana Tech team that is simply awful. But the markets do not see just how bad the Bulldogs are because a fortunate role of the dice gave them the three easiest home games they could have already in WAC play, hosting Fresno State, San Jose State without Adrian Oliver, and Hawaii. But here is the rub – they lost all three. On the road they have been drubbed in double figures at Boise State, Idaho and Utah State, losing by a combined 58 points, and in WAC play they rate last in scoring, FG percentage, rebounding margin and assist-to-To ratio (a hideous -42 through only six games), while rating next to last in FG percentage defense. A team lacking in talent and depth could not afford any attrition, but in losing Brandon Gibson to injury and Darius Redding to academics there is not a whole lot for Kerry Keating to work with, in which is going to be a lost season. Now it is two road games in three days on the conference road, and the only other time they have faced that they fell to the spread by 26.5 points at Idaho. This can be similar, as the altitude in Reno also takes a toll in the latter stages.
better freakin step it up
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