Why Did People Vote For Him?

What does this even mean? What numbers from the FED are regarding ZIRP and a rate hike cycle? What numbers from the FED say that Covid and supply chain were not inflationary? What is But then you have to do it for everyone, do WHAT for everyone? what is a partial and full what is that even in reference to? A one off OUTLIER is exponentially impactful...thus it is called an outlier and you do not sponge off an outlier and act as if it did not make material impact...well you did so I guess you do.

@wallstreetcappers 

Data comparison to be accurate has to be as close to identical as possible, disruptions and outliers are not something you can wipe off and dismiss. 

That is the smoothing out point and the reason it is done.

Take anything and see how it is done. 

Say, hurricanes hit the gulf over the whole summer and shut the refineries down.  The gas prices go up.  Then they go back down.

You measure the whole year or the whole term.  You do not just measure the area where the spike was.  That is what smoothing out the data is on a very, very basic level.

If it is something that continue for a long period --say, the war.  Then as you smooth it out later it will be elevated over the longer period more depending on how long whatever caused the spike continues.

If you want to isolate out the ZIRP portion for Trump -- then you have to do it for Biden.  If you want to consider %-wise, etc.  then you have to do it for Obama, Trump, and Biden.

That is why the cumulative is more important than just a section of each guy's term.

A one off OUTLIER is exponentially impactful

Perhaps, but not necessarily.  Variables like length, impact and cause, etc. matter.  But as you graph it out the longer it has an effect there it will slope upward.

So a nuke on Japan is just smoothed out and the impact is of no importance, the 9-11 incident had no importance, the financial crisis had no economic impact since per you it is of no consequence and immaterial? Outliers and extremes are not factored in or examined even when those very items shape and distort society and the economy?

Okie dokie....

I never compared Trump to Obama outside what he inherited when he came into office. Trump had ZIRP longer and the cycle spiked faster for Biden, Trump only had a blip of Covid while Biden had it the entire time. 

An outlier is MORE material than even comparable data, so if Biden had covid that in itself is an economic outlier MORE impactful and valuable to analyze than even comparable identical data...it means more. Same goes for 9-11 and the financial crisis. those impact heavier and are severe in their damage, they mean much more than smooth sailing no challenge.

So was this war inflationary? Is constraining global trade inflationary? Were tariffs which were refunded to corps and NOT consumers inflationary? Is higher interest payments due to excesses in spending and inflation itself inflationary? If the government spends more on debt service and less on social programs which shifts the costs and burden onto the citizen, is that not inflationary?

@wallstreetcappers

 So a nuke on Japan is just smoothed out and the impact is of no importance,

What is the point of saying this type of nonsense.

Yes, it matters.  The ENTIRE impact would be smoothed out over whatever period of time you are looking at.  Then the amount of impact would show up in the data.  Obviously, the more extreme something is the more of an impact it has on the data once you smooth it out.

THAT is why when you look at each President's term and smooth out the impacts -- financial crisis, Pandemic, wars, recessions, oil shutdowns, etc. -- they all come out in the smoothed out data.  The ones that have the least impact show up less in the overall data; the ones that have the most impact are reflected in it as well.

'So, yes the more extreme something is the more it likely impacts the data overall at the end -- but that is the entire POINT of looking at the whole period.

Do you really not understand how and why this is done?

You would not want to measure Obama at the financial crisis, Trump at the pandemic height and then measure Biden at only the top of the Pandemic recovery.

That would give you a very skewed look at all three.  So, that is what I mean by preferring a cumulative look at each of them.

@wallstreetcappers

 Trump had ZIRP longer and the cycle spiked faster for Biden

For example...I will wait?

This is completely backward as stated.

@wallstreetcappers

 I never compared Trump to Obama outside what he inherited when he came into office.

Who cares what you compared?  I never said you did.

I compared them.  I did it so you could have context, specifics, and data to back up my statement to refute your generalities about Trump/Harris.

Geezzzz guys...give it a break. 

@Midnight1

 Sorry was not meaning to get there thread off topic.

@Midnight1

 But to answer your original question:

It was economic reasons, immigration reasons, crime reasons, and just desired change.

Those are the reason usually that folks listed in mostly that order.

Do some have buyer's remorse at this point because of the war, gas prices, etc. -- absolutely.

But I imagine the majority that voted for him still prefer him over Harris and are willing to take the bad with the good.