Why Did People Vote For Him?

@Raiders22

 Was this inconsistent revised growth what Trump promised? 

If you want to take a condescending jab then please specifically define your terms with context. REAL wage growth is a term that can mean many things and you sound like Scott  Jennings throwing out general terms when reality proves otherwise...what group are you claiming is basking in the glow of Trumps awesome wage growth economy? Ive not see what you are referencing and in fact the data from corps and comments from MANY citizens state otherwise, if your faulty theory lauding Trump were true then why is our savings rate for consumers doing so poorly? If this theory of robust wage strength had merit the savings rate goes HIGHER not a march down down down as we see in the data.

@wallstreetcappers

 The terms of real-growth versus nominal-growth you should know.   I should not have to define them for you.

But this pretty much is self-evident what it means:

Even real-wage growth was higher under Trump's first term than any other than any President since Clinton's second term at around 5% compared to 1.4%, 4.0, 1.9% for Biden, Obama, and Bush.  For example, the weekly earnings adjusted for inflation is up 1.3%.

But you did ask.  So I am not sure why you took it as condescending.

It does NOT 'mean many things'.

@wallstreetcappers

 Followed by this when you asked for clarification:

So, 'Real-wage growth' takes into account the inflation.  In other words if inflation outpaces 'nominal-wage growth' then real wages are falling.  If the opposite is true then they are rising.

Hence, why Trump's real-wage numbers are positive.

That isn't condescending; just clarification.

@Raiders22

Of course I know the term but as I stated its a generalized term which means nothing without detail and specifics and that is what my follow up was and you did not answer that part because you cannot answer it, you base the term off some blurb you picked up which goes against actual data we see in society. Why did Walmart today post steep declines in same store sales, why is the consumer savings rate doing so poorly IF as you claim inflation is not bad and wage growth is so great? I can find data which shows the wage growth is not accurate as much as you can find some source that is narrow focused to say it is.

When prices for gas for electricity for food for dining out for real estate for general goods and services are UP when savings rates are DOWN, that is fact and data showing your thesis is false. You can cling onto some source as you always do but are you completely ignoring what is going on in society? Job growth is unimpressive, inflation is high while our deficits are exploding so what does this tell you?

It tells me plenty but if you are a partisan blind supporter of your dood then everything is great because some source said wage growth is good...I for sure see the opposite and the bottom line is this economy given the massive wasteful spend and rising rates is doing very badly, the consumer is struggling.

That is not the definition of solid wage growth to me...

@THEMUGG

 I would take Bernie Sanders or Romney over Trump for the SOLE reason of this stupid war....I would take AOC over Trump I would take many others over Trump for the single fact that he got played, he got suckered and this single reason is enough let alone what a total piece of trash the guy is.

FOX News is the biggest culprit in keeping this disastrous lie going, 3/4 of the pubes in congress know the truth, but are afraid of the bullies wrath and possibly physical harm to family and themselves, the millionaire sycophant clown bus that is the cabinet will NEVER invoke 25th amendment, so we are stuck with this sh!t show till the wheels come off.

PS even if the Dems take back the House and the Senate, there will be no consequence for the Emperor, sure they will investigate him for all his crimes, but what is the use, he controls Treasury and DOJ and he will only pardon all his loyal minions and his self while exiting the WH which he totally ruined.

@wallstreetcappers

 Of course I know the term but as I stated its a generalized term which means nothing without detail and specifics

It is NOT a 'generalized term'.  The detail and specifics are baked into it.

For example: Real wage growth refers to the **percentage increase in workers’ earnings adjusted for inflation**, showing whether their purchasing power has truly improved. Unlike nominal wages (the raw dollar amount on a paycheck), real wages strip away the effects of rising prices, giving a clearer picture of whether workers can afford more goods, services, or savings over time.

The concept is rooted in **economic theory**, particularly the idea that money’s value erodes when prices rise. For example, if your salary increases by 5% but inflation is 6%, your real wage has declined by 1%. This distinction is vital for understanding whether economic growth is actually benefiting everyday people.

Or:

Real wages tell you what a paycheck can actually buy. Your nominal wage is the number printed on the check. Your real wage is that number adjusted for changes in the price level. If your boss gives you a 3% raise but prices rise 5%, your real wage fell by about 2%. You have more dollars, but each dollar buys less, so you're poorer in terms of goods and services.

In AP Macro, real wages live in Topic 2.5 (Costs of Inflation) because they're the cleanest example of how unexpected inflation redistributes wealth (EK MEA-1.H.1). Workers and employers often lock in nominal wages through multi-year contracts based on expected inflation. If actual inflation comes in higher than expected, real wages fall and wealth shifts from workers to employers. If inflation comes in lower than expected, real wages rise and the employer loses. The redistribution is arbitrary, which is exactly why economists call it a cost of inflation.

So, you can parse it out by weekly, hourly, whose wages, timeframes, median vs. average, etc.  But if you keep all of those the same for whatever you are measuring it for (President, country, administration) and keep it consistent it will give you a very adequate bottom-line number to use for comparison.

BLS does a very good job of providing this for government officials as well as private-sector users.  

If this was some flimflam type number, then serious economists would not use it.  That is not to say that you cannot cherry-pick it as you can with any data.

But if you keep it consistent and measure, say, from the February of the start of a President's term you will get a good idea of how it has been for each President and each of his terms.

But the meaning is pretty specific on what they are measuring and how it is done.

@wallstreetcappers

 When prices for gas for electricity for food for dining out for real estate for general goods and services are UP when savings rates are DOWN, that is fact and data showing your thesis is false

This is too broad and pretty incorrect.

Take just the savings issues.  That needs to be examined.  Folks could be simply spending more because wages are up or they could be drawing down on accumulated savings.  Just because they are saving less of their disposable income does not mean they are worse off.  

Prices by themselves being higher also does not mean real wages are falling.  Real wages are specifically adjusted for this, by definition.

Real estate prices are considered an asset purchase, so not included in CPI.

Gas prices being higher form years ago does not by itself mean they are rising rapidly -- the Iran War aside, of course.  There are things that move gas prices that the President has nothing to do with.  But overall Trump has been proven to keep gas prices lower than others have.  the difference between price levels and inflation rates has to be made.

For the 'normal' good and services you need a defined measuring stick like CPI, or even PCE to use.

It is a well known fact that folks do not do a good job of saving.  It is also a well known fact that they spend any 'windfall' of sorts.  You see this with Pandemic funds, tax refunds, inheritance, etc.  So, that all has to be looked at in perspective.

@Raiders22

 Funny....you talk about specifics when it suits your narrative but then you give NONE when it serves your narrative. I think this is time number 3 of asking for specifics about your Trump is awesome wage growth stats. What SPECIFICS are there to this number? You are pulling a general term and then laying it over a full population where that is not at all the truth. Why is the UE number so underwhelming if your claim about wage growth had any merit? 

Inflation, savings rate, interest rates, underwhelming UE number, underwhelming JOLT numbers....your wage growth very generalized comment just does not meet the measure of truth or impact.

@wallstreetcappers

This was your statement:

 inflation would not be here, rates would not be at 20+ year highs with Harris in office.

Now this:

Funny....you talk about specifics when it suits your narrative but then you give NONE when it serves your narrative.

So, I gave my numbers and data and exactly where it came from.  I was very specific.  

How about you give yours and where you are getting it from?  Or did you just make it up because making it up 'suits your narrative'?

Your turn...and be specific.

Economist Peter Schiff says US economy is worse off after Biden left office.  Economy should be stronger without Trump's tariffs, Iran war, immigration restrictions and policy uncertainty.  He is unpopular because inflation is a bigger problem now.  Stagflation will be a problem for years to come.

@Raiders22

 You did NOT give specifics, you defined a term I know and then avoided the details by asking me for details. Typical side step on your part. My comments I can answer about but you do not get off the hook on this one. You rarely if ever back up your generalizations and instead of deflection why not answer the question?

What is the term real wage growth and who has experienced this? To sniff at REAL wage growth in total you would need an across the board 10% increase in wages to overcome REAL inflation and dont play silly CPI is the only measure nonsense, you said REAL you did not say CPI adjusted or stripping out pretty much any legit inflation so in reality no inflation since it measures next to nothing of impact.

With Harris in office there would have been NO war, NO tariffs, LESS inflation, LOWER interest rates, LESS spend on stupid wars...this is your creepy guy and his direct choices and would not exist with Harris. In fact with the deck being stacked and the way the DNC seems better at not being fascist through presidential orders, any fringe spend on those awful social programs would have been a tough sell...thus LESS DEFICITS.

@wallstreetcappers

 You did NOT give specifics, you defined a term I know and then avoided the details by asking me for details.

I gave specifics on inflation and wage growth.  

Why ask for the definition if you knew it?

If you do not think actual numbers, definitions, where the data comes from, and a comparison of Presidents with those numbers are NOT specifics -- then I am not sure what you think is specific.

That is why I am asking you for specifics on your overall general statements.

I gave SPECIFIC numbers that flat-out refute your generalities.

Trump outperformed the last 2 Democrats on those SPECIFIC numbers that YOU brought up.

So, why would he NOT ALSO be expected to outperform Harris on them?

So, again, did you just make up your statement to 'fit your narrative'?

Please give SPECIFICS for your made up nonsense please.

@Raiders22

 Specifics means as I asked WHO is the alleged group who has seen REAL wage growth? WHO? What miniscule section of the employed did this information come from? I then said that savings rates are dragging lower as a question about REAL wage growth. You said inflation is lower than under Biden, you also said that real wage growth is awesome and yet the UE number is unimpressive, JOLT numbers are unimpressive, the consumer savings rate is awful and yet you say REAL wage growth. That makes no sense, I asked you to define this wage growth NOT give me a definition of REAL wage growth...

The answer you gave above is weak...that people are spending more and who knows, how can you forward a generalized comment about REAL wage growth then give mirage answers to explain how your concept and point just make no sense? If REAL wage growth is up yet the UE numbers are not strong and the savings rate is poor and JOLT numbers are bad, where is this awesome real wage growth going? I do not see wage growth in society I see consumers spending less as we see from reports recently from Walmart, I see consumers angry at meat inflation, gas inflation, high interest rates and no relief from price increases. THIS does not jive with your contention...

Specifics I gave...over and over...gas price inflation is UP, food inflation is UP, interest rates are at multi decade highs, 10/30 bond yields are at 20 year highs and in other countries it is the same. Our deficit is growing for a war and tariffs which do not service the consumer and add inflation on top of deficits. Savings rates have been declining for some time, JOLT numbers, the UE numbers are unimpressive to match your contention of REAL wage growth. Our GDP numbers are mixed and very unimpressive. These are specifics, you have not given any specifics outside saying inflation is lower than under Biden and then ordering ME as usual to answer your questions to deflect from defining WHO is the group that is experiencing this mythical real wage growth? 

@wallstreetcappers

 inflation would not be here, rates would not be at 20+ year highs with Harris in office.

What specifically are your INFLATION numbers and why SPECIFICALLY would Harris fare any better than Obama or Biden did versus Trump?

That is what I pointed out is incorrect and just pure speculation.

That is why I gave SPECIFIC numbers on inflation.  That is also why I tied it into real-wage growth and gave SPECIFIC numbers.

In your statement even the 20+ year highs on rates is too broad and cannot be considered correct without more SPECIFICS.

Obviously, NOT the mortgage rates, NOT the Fed Funds rate, NOT the 10-year which is nowhere near a 20-year high.  So, the 30-year is the closest and it is right around a 19 year high, not yet at a 20+ year high.

So, all of your made up nonsense without SPECIFICS and where you got your unposted data from is just pure speculation.

I did not SAY inflation was higher under Biden than Trump -- I SPECIFICALLY showed the data that PROVES it was.

So the whole gist of your point was inflation would be lower and costs would be lower for folks and that they were elevated from Biden's term is just wrong.

Just over-speculation based purely on TDS it seems like at this point.

I get that you hate the man.  But you cannot argue against the numbers in his economy based on that -- you need data to back it up.

I get that you do not like any wars, tariffs, want illegals to enter your country, do not like his posts and speech.  I get all of that.

But to support and defend posters that constantly post only anti-Trump stuff and to the post your own wild speculation just because of your hatred is not honest debate -- it is just posting propaganda at this point.

So, just carry on with all of that.

@Raiders22

 Here are some inflation numbers that do not show up in CPI so to you they do not exist here in this area--

Largest public utility increased their basic service fee by 50% last year, that is for using ZERO electricity just for being their customer. This same utility has multiple rate hikes even though from my own experience their WHOLESALE cost for electricity is LOWER. 

Multiple cities who provide municipal services have increased their water/sewer/trash rates in this last year and give for reasons the increase in debt funding costs from interest rate moves

My personal increase in insurance all in costs went up 15% last year from expanded out of pocket max, increase in premiums and increase in service costs, similar goes for dental

A large supermarket chain stopped a multi year script program which reduced out of pocket costs for customers who paid a 75 buck a year premium in return for lower out of pocket costs due to the program being unaffordable to continue. I moved several scripts from them due to a 40%-ish increase in new costs

I browse several grocery stores from Walmart to Kroger to a regional chain Winco in search of best pricing for a basket of goods my household uses. This year all produce, fruits, meat, bulk baking items (flour, sugar etc) are higher at the BEST pricing I can find from all sources

Notice I did not say gas I did not say my auto insurance or my property insurance I gave specific and detailed items common to anyone and everyone.

On the wages front the previous several years my employer who is very reasonable and practical gave low COLA increases of 2-3% due to the slowing economy and increase in operating costs while the out of pocket max for SS contributions goes up close to that same total almost cancelling out any so-called additions.

So keep at it with the REAL wage increases nonsense, the data and truth prove otherwise.

Rate nonsense...you keep mentioning fed funds as if that is the only rate that counts, you also deflect from the 30 year which IS at 20 year highs on yield because the 10 year is not...well go look at a yield chart on the 10 year, it IS at 20 year highs in fact if you scan back it is right in line with 25 year high levels. Your contention about peak highs is not so great given the peak highs on the 10 year going back 25 years is not very far from here at all. Your point would make more impact IF the 10 year were like under 3 and a long distance away from highs but you are deflecting off like 20 bps as if that means the current yield is NOT at 20 year highs. If Scott sells more long duration to shift to short term notes as he said, those yields will keep going higher.

German yields are at 18 year highs, Japan 10 year yields are at 30 year highs...are you really suggesting that these yields do not matter because FED fund rates are not at 5 NOW when they WERE when Biden was in office? Not a good look when you try to use a rate figure to make a point in one direction but then do not properly use that same figure in CONTEXT where Biden had higher fed funds rates than Trump yet again and STILL the 10/30 were lower under Biden. Not great stuff there Raiders, higher FED funds rate yet lower bond yields...wonder if that is due to INFLATION issues?

@wallstreetcappers

 Are you using anecdotal information as overall evidence of what economists use as a measuring stick for inflation and real wage growth?

Why did you simply not say at the very start that some of your personal expenses outside of what is looked at in CPI, etc. has increased.

I am sure some folks have experienced increase, some have experienced decreases in things both inside and outside of what CPI captures.  

My whole point is that you have to use a standard across a whole section for the average person and then use that to compare it across administrations.

Otherwise, you are back to each person’s experience and that is not how you arrive at a consistent picture across the economy.  

I am sure some folks have some prices that went up and they felt it and assume it was the same for everyone when it might or might not have been.  

That is the whole point in using a set gauge to capture the goods and services to use as a metric.  

Any other conversation can certainly be had about personal experiences.  

For example, look at the homeowner’s insurance in Florida.  Does that really paint an overall picture of the country as a whole, or for the folks in South Dakota?

There are also things that are not necessarily considered ‘needs’.  Some folks will see price increases in things they feel they need that others do not need as much, etc.

@wallstreetcappers

 Rate nonsense...you keep mentioning fed funds as if that is the only rate that counts, you also deflect from the 30 year which IS at 20 year highs on yield because the 10 year is not...well go look at a yield chart on the 10 year, it IS at 20 year highs in fact if you scan back it is right in line with 25 year high levels. 

Go back and read your original post.  You were not specific that you meant ONLY the 30-year.  It is very close to a 20-year high.  It is at the highest since 2007 — 19 years.  
So, I am okay with that if that was what you had said. 

The 10-year is not and no other ‘rates’ really are.  
It is not in line with 25 year levels  

So, it would have helped if you had been clear on exactly what ‘rate’ you meant and not said rates.

It was just hyperbole at best.  

@Raiders22

 Humorous...

SOME folks blah blah blah...yeah right MOST folks have experienced all the inflation I mentioned because I listed COMMON items which are groceries, utilities, medical insurance and of course gas. Why play soft and say SOME folks, it is all folks even you Raiders. My comments were very precise and targeted to be broad and comprehensive that it is applicable across the board.

Notice I did not say PEAK highs, nope I did not...I said 20 year highs which is 100% accurate and in fact even further back. You tried to deflect with peak numbers and as I mentioned your pocket change bps excuse is pretty flat there big guy. 

So why are rates high now when FED funds is lower and your "alleged" REAL wages are so awesome? What drives rates in this scenario is it inflation is it deficits? Is it socialist DEMS that are sabotaging the greatest economy in the history of this country?

@wallstreetcappers

 The ‘common items’ are already measured for you and are consistently done so for economic measuring purposes.  

Anecdotal evidence is not needed.

@Raiders22

 Actually no CPI does not measure MANY of the items I listed and if by this response you say it does then as we both know it is a complete fraud of an index. 

So CPI measures the change in medical expenses this is your contention? How exactly could the CPI measure the increase in max out of pockets for health plans year over year? How could it measure high co-pays and specialist fees year over year? How does it measure an increase in employee based contributions to premiums? 

How could the CPI measure the increase in BASE service fees from a utility, how could it base an increase in rates? It cannot. How could it measure the increase in home owners insurance year over year? It cannot and does not. The CPI is useless as is your measure of wage increase, to which you did not define how this number was calculated just that some source said it and that was it.

The biggest flaw you never address is that the CPI is a basket it is inaccurate it is not JIT and it does not measure the impact on the consumer, I as a consumer have been impacted by higher costs as I consume less and my pantry has never been less stocked in the last ten years because I feel there is not discretionary funds to overpay for stuff that I might otherwise and how does the CPI measure that? 

So what is the mech for your generalized underwhelming summary in post 48? Do you ever have detail and fact or just lean on some stat you found and if you found it then it is true and valid?

@wallstreetcappers

 I can promise you… inflation would not be here, rates would not be at 20+ year highs with Harris in office.

Inflation is obviously down from Biden's high.  In his first term he had the lowest first-term cumulative inflation since Kennedy, close to 7.25%.  Even Clinton, Bush, and Obama were over 8%, or very close, in their first terms. 

Biden had a cumulative inflation rate of almost 21%.

The numbers are what they are.

 Rates are not at 20 year highs.

Trump's cumulative inflation is still the lowest.

Real-wage growth is still the highest.

 Your whole point is that Harris would not have had the inflation and rates that Trump has. 

Why not?  What would her Leftist policies do that Obama and Biden could not do to make those numbers better than what Trump has?