Canadian Election betting thread

@icemantbi

 Saw an article on CBC a couple of days ago talking about the young voters and how they could sway the vote but probably will only ‘sway’ by NOT voting.  
I think this is a big concern more nowadays than in years past.  
The young folks are less and less into politics and are more and more misinformed.  I think they are misinformed b cause most of them now get too much information on social media and bad news outlets with just a clip and no depth of information.  
I think more should be done to get young folks interested in their country and what is going on.  

"I'm just not that interested in politics in general, there's a lot going on and there's so many different sides of it and I just don't wanna be wrapped up," said Catherine O'Hall, who recently became eligible to vote.

Her friend Jade John said time restrictions have kept her from getting more information. 

"It's not something that you just see in front of you, so you have to go searching for it, and I don't have time to go search," she said 

Georgia Westwoods could have voted in the recent Ontario provincial election, but she didn't. 

"I had no idea, I'd never heard about it, hadn't seen anything about it," she said, adding that her age group feels disconnected from politics. 

"I don't really know a lot. I feel like a lot of people don't, especially my age. I feel like a lot of candidates don't really, like, look toward us, I guess. I feel like it's kind of hard to know where we stand."

"We don't watch the news, we don't do any of that. So we're not really aware of what is going on. If it's not on social media, we don't know," said John.

And it's not just being on social media, said O'Hall: the message has to hit right.

Updated election odds as of today

Liberals -239

Cons +194

Not surprising the odds are now moving in favour of the Cons with new polling showing that the gap is narrowing between the Libs and Cons, from a 7 point lead to a 5 point lead.  Today and tomorrow is the debates so we should see a further shifting.  I still think Libs are going to win this, sadly, barring a knockout punch in tmorrow's debate similar to Brian Mulrooney in 1984 against John Turner. 

The youth vote is really important and the one bright spot for the Cons is the youth are much more inclined to vote Conservative so in order to win the youngins need to turn out and vote.

Just a quick update with less than only a few days left before election day on April 28

To win most seats

Liberals -600

Cons +453

Despite Pierre having a great debate, the Liberals are now massive favorites to win the election.  Sitting pretty with Liberals -117 that I took way back after the writ was dropped.  Despite some polls saying the Cons are narrowing the gap, those odds are definitely denying that.  Also, massive turnout in the advance polls so I believe at least 1/4 to 1/3 of Canadians have already cast their ballot.  I may throw a few bucks on the Cons at those odds to hedge but realistically, it's over now.  Not even the "Brampton Boomer" and his two finger salute did anything to dent the Liberal lead.  It's absolutely insane that in January the Cons had a whopping 26 point lead in the polls.  Dark, very dark times ahead in this country.

Pinny has also added a couple more betting props, if interested:

Party to win most seats in BC

Liberals -139, Cons +115

Now, here is where there is some value in taking cons at + odds.  I think they have a shot at winning BC.  The urban BC vote will go heavily for the Cons so its going to be decided in the Vancouver and Vancouver suburb ridings.  If a few go blue then I think Cons win BC

Party to win most seats in Manitoba

Cons -140, Liberals +113

Again, good value here for Cons to win Manitoba.  I think the only provinces Cons win is Alberta, Saksatchewan and Manitoba with BC a bit of a tossup.  Again, rural Manitoba will vote Cons so they just need to win a couple seats in Winnipeg to win the most seats in the province.  I think these odds should be closer to Cons -180 or so. 

I already have enough on Liberals to win the election so I will pass on these two other options, but if you didn't get in early when the value was there, BC and Manitoba Cons to win most seats is some good value IMO

I would be very surprised if they won BC.  I saw that on Pinnacle earlier. It is now -131/+109. 

But it is so amazing to me that folks will keep voting for what got them where they are now.  
The Liberals have no plans to address the issues that most Canadians are concerned about, yet they will continue down the same road. 

@Raiders22

 Because the CPC has a very hard time winning any election, when the main stream media (CBC, CTV, Global, etc.) is heavily bent in favor of the Liberals.  That and people have short memories.  The way the Liberals played the whole Trump is enemy #1 and we have to do everything we can to stop us from being the 51st state and Carney is the best person for the job BS is a political masterclass.  Calling Pierre "Mini Trump" and telling NDP supporters to vote strategically has basically turned all those NDP votes into Liberal votes.  That's the real problem for the CPC, because if you look at support for the CPC, they have higher support than even Harper did.  Unlike Pierre, Carney hasn't even provided any kind of plan as to what he will do to fix anything, all his so called rallies are all about Trump is bad and we need to be tough on Trump and I am best qualified.  But the guy is such a liar, he completely LIED about his call to Trump when he said right after that call that Trump didn't even bring up the 51st state talk, well yesterday it was leaked that he did but of course the CBC/CTV conglomerate barely made mention of it.

@icemantbi

 Absolutely correct. 
Sad that the average folks will fall for the media’s portrayal of the situation.  They for sure played up the Trump thing.  
It should be the least of their concerns; vote for what is best for the country and yourself.  
They are now going to empower the country to go further down the road that created the very problems that everyone knows exist.  
There is just not a good way to make the folks think critically so that the media does not have such an influence on their thinking on matters.  
People are too busy with day-to-day life to study and look into things on their own.  So, they have to trust the media, in a way, because that is what they mostly see and hear.  
I just wish Poilievre had run a better and louder campaign.  Waiting so long to release his costed platform looked bad.  Then to say ‘95% of Canadians’ know what it would look like if he ran the government because he has been rolling out policies all along. 
He should have got it out early and talked it a lot and loudly on every possible show, news outlet, and podcast that would have him on.  
This was a good chance for Canada to make some of the changes the USA, parts of Europe, parts of Latin American and Australia have started to do.  Instead Canada is headed further down this same road. 
I am not so sure he spent enough time campaigning in the right places.  He had to convince more of the areas that vote Left; he had to sway them.  He needed to use social media more and try to energize the young voters and get them out to vote.  
He should have tied Carney more to Trudeau than he did.  
Very disappointing the way he and his team did this.  Maybe he can pull it off.  But maybe he can learn from it and do it differently next time.  
I did like the way he closed the other day with this, when talking about the economic proposals:

“This is a hopeful message. And you know this really is the choice. Do you want hope for a change, or do you want fear that keeps us in descent with rising costs and crime and a fourth Liberal term?” said Poilievre, speaking in Woodbridge.

But it needed to be said earlier and more often when presenting his proposals along the way.  
People respond to a ‘hopeful’ message when they are desperate.  

I think Pierre did the best he could.  He also has handlers that advise him on what to do and what not to do.  As a major party, they take the more cautious approach. One of the biggest mistakes Pierre made was not getting on big podcasts like Rogan or PBD but again, I think he was advised not to especially after Smith went down south and spoke to US conservative outlets and got raked through the coals for it.  Even then, the "mainstream" media used that to attack Pierre for not distancing himself from Danielle after she did that.  Damned if he does damned if he doesn't.

One of the more terrifying aspects of a Carney Liberal government is that they are using the Trump enemy #1 to get into bed with China.  That should scare every Canadian out there, to think we are coddling up to the Chi coms instead of dealing with Trump is just crazy but then again, we know Carney has ties to the Chi Coms solely based on that $250 million dollar loan he took.  I don't care what anyone says about Trump but put those two side by side and you want to side with someone who purges his party, who made 5 million people dissapear since 2012, who runs his country like a fiefdom, a true dictatorship vs a guy who just wants to get the best for his country and make deals that he deems are fair?  I don't care what you think but if you prefer Xi over Trump your nuts.  But that's where we are going to be headed if Liberals get another term.

Last update before election day

To win most seats - general

Liberals -438

Cons +341

To win most seats BC

Liberals -130

Cons +108

To win most seats Manitoba 

Liberals +128

Cons -158

According to Pinny all bets must be in by 8 am before it goes off the board

Still sitting on Liberals -117.  The odds have slowly crept back up from the low of Liberals -600 which was a couple weeks ago.  Still, according to the latest poll, Ekos came out and predicted a Liberal majority.  Maybe the polls are wrong but I doubt it.  I know many have compared the US election where the polls were off but the gap is a magnitude bigger in this case.  Highest I ever saw Kamala to win Presidency was -154 and that was right after she was nominated and had that honeymoon bump.  After that, the odds went in favor of Trump despite some polls showing a slim lead for Kamala.  These polls are not a slim lead for the Liberals.  Remember all the Liberals have to do is sweep the GTA, win a handful of seats in Quebec, the maritimes and BC and it's over.

Unless I wake up tomorrow morning with some kind of gut feeling that maybe the polls and poly market are wring I won't bother hedging.  This election has been over before it even began.  It was over with the Tariffs to be honest.  

So that's that.  Hope for the best for the country but expecting the worst.  At least I'll have a few extra bucks in my pocket tomorrow night but for the sake of our country I hope I'm wrong.

Ekos poll if anyone is wondering 

Liberals 44%

Cons 38%

NDP 9%

BQ 4%

Green 2%

PPC 2%

So that's a 6 point gap between cons and Libs.  Funny enough Cons will have better support than they did with Harper.  But the NDP has simply cratered and 95% of those who would have voted NDP will be voting Liberal.  

As an aside I'm interested to see how the  PPC does tomorrow.  Last election they had 4% of the vote and in many ridings the PPC support took away enough votes from the Cons under Otoole that the Liberal candidate won (mine included).  I'm expecting much of that PPC support will vote Cons tomorrow because Pierre has resonated with many of those voters (myself included) and the need to get rid of the Liberals at any cost.  However many may vote PPC if they figure the election is lost based on exit poling and for the fact that assuming the Libs win a majority Pierre will most likely step down or be forced to with some moderate conservative (like another Otoole or Peter MacKay) likely as a replacement.  I hope if that does happen that Pierre joins the PPC which means that, assuming of course Pierre wins his seat l, which he will despite the Liberal hype machine saying Fanjoy has a shot of upsetting him in his riding, the PPC will have their first MP and potentially start a new true conservative movement that has some legs and can score some wins in the future elections 

Early results from Maritimes

Liberals 13

Cons 4

That is bad if it holds.  The Maritimes are usually good for Cons 

And that's that

CBC called it for Liberal government 

Liberal -117 cashes

But Canada is fu*ked

Canadians across their country are making the case that the Conservatives were supposed to win and would have won EASILY had their election been held in mid-February......... but entirely thanks to our BIG MOUTH ASSHOLE FASCIST in the Oval since then, the Liberals in Canada got the populace to rally around their anti-BIG MOUTH ASSHOLE FASCIST-trump platform and defeat the shocked conservative party.

Canadians are rejoicing!  

Did you all know that Karney's campaign originated out of NYC....a little office 

It's a minority government for the Canadian Liberals - but all parties in their system stand opposed to trump's MAGA fascism