CD Newsletter Week 12

First off ...Happy Thanksgiving week to all you American subscribers 

Bears / Lions  +3.5  -111   OU42

Believe Red Rocket is starting . Without looking up the stats I think Lions have been abysmal on TG Thursday . Desperate team I like Detroit but cant see a bet just yet 

Raiders / Cowboys  -7.5  +109  OU50.5

Raiders are pretty horrific right now ...Cowboys have more injuries than the Ravens . Hopefully Hugh or D can chime in on the latest IR

Bills / Saints  +4.5  -111   OU46

Bills seem to struggle against somewhat decent teams . Saints are a little bit unpredictable . Siemian had some bad plays last week but has absolutely no receivers to throw too...Tough game 

Titans / Pats  -5.5  -108  OU44.5

Titans laid an egg last week . Tannehill was definitely off ...Pats absolutely in the groove . Lean under 

Jets / Texans  -3  +110   OU44

Gotta be the first time Texans the favorite this year . If not for last weeks game this should be a pickem IMO . Leaned under but no idea 

Falcons / Gettys  +1  -101  OU46

Hmmmm....leave this one for Getty to review 

Panthers / Dolphins  +1  +105   OU42

I cant imagine being a team mate with Cam . Super selfish player and super annoying . Fish should make my card out of pure hatred 

Steelers / Bengals  -3.5  +101  OU45

Revenge game for the Steelers and they seem to get all the calls . Lean Steelers 

Chargers / Broncos  +2.5  +106   OU47

The Chargers hook should disappear quickly in this one . Mile high is tough spot to play . Lean under but have to look into this 

DJ Brows / 49ers  -3  -112   OU48

Tough game ...49ers playing a lot better but Vikings doing the same . If I can get the hook will play the Vikes 

Rams / Packers  -1  -101   OU48

Game of the week if you ask me . Rams need this one . Stafford is no stranger to Lambeau . I hope he shows up

BWS / Shrimp  -3.5  -110   OU46.5

LJ still getting treatment for aids ?.....Possibly GOY on the Browns by Hugh

Seahawks / WFT  -1  +102   OU46

Russ is struggling big time due to that finger . WFT and Heineken are surprisingly playing really good through their injuries . Lean WFT but line seems fishy

This is the most important game of the NFL season, as it is probably for the #1 overall pick in the draft

GB lost their All Pro Guard Jenkins to an ACL injury last week. Baktiari is still out. Rodgers has a bad toe limiting his mobility. Rams have a good pass rush. Game is more important to Rams than GB

I'll play a quick game of war to determine the Falcons/Jaguars winner. Visitor chooses first. Annnnnd the Falcons draw a 6 of diamonds. Could be problematic but the Jags have been known to defy the odds in a negative way. Annnnnd the Jaguars have drawn the Jack of clubs. It's official, I'll be on Jacksonville on Sunday. 

@Getty3

 That is a more scientific approach than what I use

On another note .....

Luck plays such a major factor in the outcome of NFL games.

This year Brady has thrown 8 INTs.

Josh Allen  has thrown 9 INTs.

HOWEVER ...

Brady has thrown 4 INT worthy throws.

Josh Allen has thrown 16 INT worthy throws.

Unless something changes drastically, all that preseason talk of Allen taking the next step and winning the MVP was an overreaction to his only good season in 2020

Phi/NYG +3 (2.05 at 365)   O/U 46.5

Eagles back to back winners. Giants with that inevitable loss last nite.
Eagles 8-1 SU v Giants L9 - but the 1 loss was their last meeting. 
Giants covered 4 of L5 and 6 of L8 in these games.

Under is 4-1 in L5.

 TW ,I do realise you use Pinny's numbers. OTB

Coaching rumors this morning : NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports "Majority of Bears players want Matt Nagy to get fired. Lost some of the locker room last year and now it's all gone."

NJ.com reports "Don't be surprised if Jason Garrett is relieved of his OC duties on Tuesday. Coach Joe Judge was livid at the dysfunctional offense last night and blamed an ill advised game plan, not the players."

Jason Garrett (IMHO) is not a football coach. Nice lad, bad strategist.

The line at 365 still intact.

Pinny has 3.5 and 46. 

Decent chance that Tyron and Cee Dee both play this week.

If both players are out the Boys will have their hands full.

Daks splits with Tyron playing vs not playing are significant.

Cooper is def out.

My lines on this game are all over the place, from -6.5 (20), to 7, to 8

Word around town is CeeDee is likely to suit up. Tyron was back at practice today. Whether he plays or not if recent pattern holds the Raiders are in deep doo doo

Giants just fired OC Jason 'Coach Clapper' Garrett.

That was very predictable if you heard HC Joe Judges comments after the game last night

@BIGDTITLE

Thur is the 1 year anniversary of the sudden death of the Cowboys strength and conditioning coach. The man was beloved by the players. It's possible this anniversary has no bearing on the outcome, but it's also possible that the players may go out and win one for the gipper.

I lean the former

I'm not a fan of the NBA (understatement) but this play last night by Terry Rozier is crazy ...

I've already started to lock in bets, and it's a good thing because lines are on the move

From the truth is stranger than fiction dept. :

On Monday, Jason's older brother John was fired by Lafayette U. after 5 years. This will be an awkward Thanksgiving at the Garrett family house. 

@Getty3

The good news is that they can all stay for the late game because no one has to go to work the next day

@Getty3

well, thats awkward 

No it won't. They gave all the money they need and will get hired again

@Hugh_Jorgan

What games you playing ? I've only got Lions +3.5 for now...oh and Cake's soccer play which needs just 1 goal in the 2H to cash.

Not as awkward as surprising the family with your freshly turned 18 years old Phillipino boyfriend.  

I mean...  uh...   football!  

He'll of a thread. I got my 2 look ahead lines locked in on the Rams and Browns