Posted:
#51
conflicting issues being the yankees fan.. 
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Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs)
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by LOSVEGAS514:
BODIO IM WITH KEYSER NEVER BET 1ST 5 B4 THIS MEANS AT THE TOP OF THE 6TH IF DETROITS WINNING I WIN? IF IS A TIE I PUSH AND IF NY IS WINNING I LOSE????
Correct. The result after 5 innings is what matters. If it's a tie, then the wager is cancelled.
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Posted:
#54
Quote Originally Posted by mance:
I just want to add, that in that first game Detroit lineup was put together to face lefty C.C. And after rain delay, by the rules they can't make any roster changes, so that "lefty C.C. lineup" resume game against rigthy Nova. Tonight they have lineup in shape for him
I just want to add, that in that first game Detroit lineup was put together to face lefty C.C. And after rain delay, by the rules they can't make any roster changes, so that "lefty C.C. lineup" resume game against rigthy Nova. Tonight they have lineup in shape for him
AH!!! excellent excellent point! I didn't even consider that when analyzing Nova's performance in that game. Nova is terrible against lefties and I do expect a number of them in the lineup for Detroit today.
Thanks for sharing!! great stuff
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Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by shotenzenjin:
Could it be your superb detailed analysis has sent this line plummeting??? There's not usually such a disparity between the full game and 5-innings lines...Pinny has the Tigers at +149ml for the game and +130ml over 5 innings.
Could it be your superb detailed analysis has sent this line plummeting??? There's not usually such a disparity between the full game and 5-innings lines...Pinny has the Tigers at +149ml for the game and +130ml over 5 innings.
Pinny had the 5-inning odds at +149 when I placed the wagers. 5Dimes was at +150 for 5-innings.
They're both around +130 now. I still love it at those odds..
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Posted:
#56
Quote Originally Posted by TITANPANDA12:
BODIO,
BODIO,
Great job this season. You have been an ATM for a lot of use who follow your plays. I am on board with you on the TIGERS (5 inn). I took the +1/2 for INS purposes.
Thanks
No need for insurance.
You'll just win in case the game is tied after 5.
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Posted:
#59
Quote Originally Posted by tonywest32:
First time poster here,and let me say U R THE FN MAN....What r your thoughts on the double result prop play....Ive never seen you play first five innings....And u do believe the yanks can get down and come back like weve seen time and time again over the years...Im seeing detroit 1st five then yanks to win the game at 8 to 1... looks like some good value on an action wager....What u think...
First time poster here,and let me say U R THE FN MAN....What r your thoughts on the double result prop play....Ive never seen you play first five innings....And u do believe the yanks can get down and come back like weve seen time and time again over the years...Im seeing detroit 1st five then yanks to win the game at 8 to 1... looks like some good value on an action wager....What u think...
As long as it's a fun 'action' wager, why the heck not?
I don't trust this Tigers bullpen at all. Unless Fister goes 7-8 innings, this is not a bad wager. Getting Detroit bullpen for 3 innings provides enough time for the Bombers to win it.
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by Cao75:
then odds look good.. mine still at +135
i also took a small bets 1st 5inn under 5 for the game. Any thought boido 
it's an ok wager. I expect Fister to be sharp. Nova is a 'question mark'. He might give up 3 or he might give up 6. (I'm hoping for 6 of course :)
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Posted:
#69
Nice write up. I have to take issue with some things. You highlight how Detroit never saw Nova prior to game 1.5. But, don't mention how Fister's quality start against NYY in the regular season was the first time they were seeing the "new and improved" Doug Fister. Nova had multiple effective starts against Toronto and Baltimore. Both 700+ run scoring teams. He also shut down Texas the second time he saw them. A much better offensive team than Detroit. Also, you're cherry picking by saying the box score makes Fister's start look worse than it was. It's more an indictment of what a misleading stat ERA can be. His WHIP was 2.14. That's bad!
Anyway, good luck on your play! 
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Posted:
#71
Wow epic writeup there and a few nice add on points by others good stuff. And on top of that I too like DET today so I'm jacked to see you backing them. Not sure exactly how I'll play them. ML for sure and then +1.5 in some fashion. And as usual you were bang on two days back when you said plays 1-4 on my card were solid. I did great on the first few plays then like clockwork tailed off finishing 4-5 -0.55 units. Good news is I bounced back with a 4-0 +7.15 units card yesterday and kept the heater going. 8 +$ days outta 10 now at +47.7 units. Thanx for all the knowledge buddy you've really helped me turn a corner. And the best part is my fave/specialty sport is pucks and thats back tonight. &
& 0
Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
Nice write up. I have to take issue with some things. You highlight how Detroit never saw Nova prior to game 1.5. But, don't mention how Fister's quality start against NYY in the regular season was the first time they were seeing the "new and improved" Doug Fister. Nova had multiple effective starts against Toronto and Baltimore. Both 700+ run scoring teams. He also shut down Texas the second time he saw them. A much better offensive team than Detroit. Also, you're cherry picking by saying the box score makes Fister's start look worse than it was. It's more an indictment of what a misleading stat ERA can be. His WHIP was 2.14. That's bad!
Nice write up. I have to take issue with some things. You highlight how Detroit never saw Nova prior to game 1.5. But, don't mention how Fister's quality start against NYY in the regular season was the first time they were seeing the "new and improved" Doug Fister. Nova had multiple effective starts against Toronto and Baltimore. Both 700+ run scoring teams. He also shut down Texas the second time he saw them. A much better offensive team than Detroit. Also, you're cherry picking by saying the box score makes Fister's start look worse than it was. It's more an indictment of what a misleading stat ERA can be. His WHIP was 2.14. That's bad!
Anyway, good luck on your play!
Not sure if I'd say that Texas is 'much better offensive team' than Detroit. Both are top-5. Sure Nova shut them down in his 2nd start against them. But what does that have to do with anything? He was ineffective against them in his 3rd start and in his first against them for that matter. This is baseball. You'll always have an average pitcher have a game here and there where they 'shut down' a good offense. I don't see the relevance of that. It's much more relevant that Nova had an almost 7 ERA against top-5 offenses in AL in 7 games than what he did in 1 game.
As to Yankees seeing "the improved" Fister for the first time, that's not exactly true. He's faced them once this season already and gave up 3 ER's in 7 innings of work.
To your point that Fister's WHIP was 2.14, you're focusing on 1 game. I look at a larger picture when evaluating pitchers and matchups. I've only discussed Fister's game 1 performance to explain that it's not indicative of how he generally does against top offensive teams. It was one game and nothing more.
Overall, Fister is a much better pitcher than Nova in my opinion and at +150 odds provides tremendous 'value' for the first-5 innings.
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Posted:
#73
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:
Wow epic writeup there and a few nice add on points by others good stuff. And on top of that I too like DET today so I'm jacked to see you backing them. Not sure exactly how I'll play them. ML for sure and then +1.5 in some fashion. And as usual you were bang on two days back when you said plays 1-4 on my card were solid. I did great on the first few plays then like clockwork tailed off finishing 4-5 -0.55 units. Good news is I bounced back with a 4-0 +7.15 units card yesterday and kept the heater going. 8 +$ days outta 10 now at +47.7 units. Thanx for all the knowledge buddy you've really helped me turn a corner. And the best part is my fave/specialty sport is pucks and thats back tonight. &
Wow epic writeup there and a few nice add on points by others good stuff. And on top of that I too like DET today so I'm jacked to see you backing them. Not sure exactly how I'll play them. ML for sure and then +1.5 in some fashion. And as usual you were bang on two days back when you said plays 1-4 on my card were solid. I did great on the first few plays then like clockwork tailed off finishing 4-5 -0.55 units. Good news is I bounced back with a 4-0 +7.15 units card yesterday and kept the heater going. 8 +$ days outta 10 now at +47.7 units. Thanx for all the knowledge buddy you've really helped me turn a corner. And the best part is my fave/specialty sport is pucks and thats back tonight.
& Nice. Looks like hockey might have to replace NBA this season for me :)
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