Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
6 - 2 @ 75% for +4.0 Units
Thur 10/06
#1: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 innings) +150
Game 1.5 (get it?) rematch here between Fister and Nova. The key here is to determine who is a better pitcher. Take a look at what Fister has done over his last 8 games of the regular season: 56 innings of work, 25 hits, 4 ER’s, and 52 K’s to 4 BB’s. Truly incredible. Sure he didn’t face the ‘best’ offenses in the league but those numbers are still spectacular. His xFIP in the month of September was a slick 2.19 with 9.0 K/9 and 0.79 BB/9 for an 11.33 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, Nova had his worst month in September since May, with a 4.55 xFIP and a measly 1.42 K/BB ratio.
Let’s also compare each pitcher in terms of how they did against the top-5 offenses in the American League this year (Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Royals):
Fister:
KC: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 5 ER
DET: 6.1 inn / 5 hits / 2 ER
BOS: 5.2 inn / 5 hits / 0 ER
DET: 8.0 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 7.2 inn / 6 hits / 4 ER
NYY: 7.0 inn / 7 hits / 3 ER
TEX: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 2 ER
KC: 7.2 inn / 4 hits / 1 ER
Total: 56.1 inn / 50 hits / 21 ER for a 3.36 ERA. Not too bad especially considering the offensive output of the lineups he faced.
Nova:
BOS: 4.1 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 4.1 inn / 4 hits / 5 ER
TEX: 7.1 inn / 2 hits / 0 ER
KC: 3.0 inn / 10 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 5.2 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
KC: 5.1 inn / 9 hits / 7 ER
BOS: 6.1 inn / 8 hits / 4 ER
Total: 36.1 inn / 47 hits / 28 ER for a 6.98 ERA. Hmm…
The interesting thing here is that Nova hasn’t faced the Tigers during the regular season. Actually, he has never started against them (had 2 innings of relief work against them last year) until game 1.5 of this playoff series. Nova went 6.1 innings in that start, allowed 4 hits and 2 ER’s. He had 5 strike-outs to 4 walks. He left the game in the 9th with bases loaded and 1 one. Ayala gave up a ground-out and a single to account for the 2 runs that were applied to Nova. The important factor to take away here is that the ‘unfamiliarity’ angle is gone. Even in his first start against the Tigers, Nova issued 4 walks in 6 innings of work (pretty inefficient). How is he going to fare against them today, when they get to see him for the second time in a week? Well, maybe his 6.98 ERA against the best hitting offenses in AL is a good indicator of his ‘expected’ future performance.
Speaking of that first game, Fister’s box-score shows that he went 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 6 ER’s with 6 K’s to 2 BB’s. If you watched the game you would have noticed that he struggled in the first inning he pitched, but got out of it without giving up any runs. He then went on to pitch 3 very solid innings allowing 1 ER prior to running into some trouble in the 6th where with 2 outs he gave up 2 consecutive singles and a walk. Fister exited the game with bases loaded and 2 outs, when Alburquerque promptly gave up a grand slam crediting 3 more ER’s to Fister. Overall, was it a great outing? No. Was it as bad as the box-score showed? Not really. I’m sure it wasn’t easy for either Fister or Nova to come into a game already in progress. Today both pitchers will start the game from the first inning and I expect Fister to be the one to outperform his opponent.
I also want to point out Fister’s L/R splits: 3.75 xFIP against lefties with a 3.56 K/BB and 3.43 xFIP against righties with a 4.75 K/BB. Both are very solid and above average. Nova’s L/R splits are: 4.37 xFIP with 1.45 K/BB against lefties and 3.95 xFIP with a 2.08 against righties. Both are below average and his performance against lefties is very poor. I expect Leyland to have a couple more lefties in this Tigers lineup tonight. I also want to point out that Nova’s home xFIP of 4.48 is much worse than his road xFIP of 3.82. His home HR/9 rate is 1.05 compared to 0.34 on the road. All these factors are very critical, and favor the Tigers here.
A couple days ago I’ve explained my concern with Tigers’ BP, especially their closer Valverde. This is the reason I’m playing this one for the first 5 innings only, as Yankees’ BP is much more dominant.
Finally I’ve compared all the starting pitchers in AL this year that have enough ‘innings’ to qualify, top 40 pitchers in terms of innings and starts. Fister has the 12th best xFIP at 3.62 and 3.03 FIP (5th) compared to Nova’s 33rd ranked 4.15 xFIP and 4.01 FIP (24th). Fister’s xFIP is better than Lester’s, Weaver’s, Masterson’s, Romero’s, and Scherzer’s. Nova’s is better than Carmona’s, Francis’, Guthrie’s, Brad Penny’s, and Vargas’. Now tell me, which pitcher you’d like to back in a pivotal game 5? I expect majority of the public to back the Yankees as they’ll only be comparing the box-scores from game 1.5 starts between Fister and Nova, while using superficial reasons as ‘Yankees have momentum’ and ‘Yankees want it more’, etc. We’ll know better though!
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units
2011 MLB Playoffs:
6 - 2 @ 75% for +4.0 Units
Thur 10/06
#1: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 innings) +150
Game 1.5 (get it?) rematch here between Fister and Nova. The key here is to determine who is a better pitcher. Take a look at what Fister has done over his last 8 games of the regular season: 56 innings of work, 25 hits, 4 ER’s, and 52 K’s to 4 BB’s. Truly incredible. Sure he didn’t face the ‘best’ offenses in the league but those numbers are still spectacular. His xFIP in the month of September was a slick 2.19 with 9.0 K/9 and 0.79 BB/9 for an 11.33 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, Nova had his worst month in September since May, with a 4.55 xFIP and a measly 1.42 K/BB ratio.
Let’s also compare each pitcher in terms of how they did against the top-5 offenses in the American League this year (Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees, Tigers, Royals):
Fister:
KC: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 5 ER
DET: 6.1 inn / 5 hits / 2 ER
BOS: 5.2 inn / 5 hits / 0 ER
DET: 8.0 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 7.2 inn / 6 hits / 4 ER
NYY: 7.0 inn / 7 hits / 3 ER
TEX: 7.0 inn / 8 hits / 2 ER
KC: 7.2 inn / 4 hits / 1 ER
Total: 56.1 inn / 50 hits / 21 ER for a 3.36 ERA. Not too bad especially considering the offensive output of the lineups he faced.
Nova:
BOS: 4.1 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 4.1 inn / 4 hits / 5 ER
TEX: 7.1 inn / 2 hits / 0 ER
KC: 3.0 inn / 10 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 5.2 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
KC: 5.1 inn / 9 hits / 7 ER
BOS: 6.1 inn / 8 hits / 4 ER
Total: 36.1 inn / 47 hits / 28 ER for a 6.98 ERA. Hmm…
The interesting thing here is that Nova hasn’t faced the Tigers during the regular season. Actually, he has never started against them (had 2 innings of relief work against them last year) until game 1.5 of this playoff series. Nova went 6.1 innings in that start, allowed 4 hits and 2 ER’s. He had 5 strike-outs to 4 walks. He left the game in the 9th with bases loaded and 1 one. Ayala gave up a ground-out and a single to account for the 2 runs that were applied to Nova. The important factor to take away here is that the ‘unfamiliarity’ angle is gone. Even in his first start against the Tigers, Nova issued 4 walks in 6 innings of work (pretty inefficient). How is he going to fare against them today, when they get to see him for the second time in a week? Well, maybe his 6.98 ERA against the best hitting offenses in AL is a good indicator of his ‘expected’ future performance.
Speaking of that first game, Fister’s box-score shows that he went 4.2 innings, allowed 7 hits and 6 ER’s with 6 K’s to 2 BB’s. If you watched the game you would have noticed that he struggled in the first inning he pitched, but got out of it without giving up any runs. He then went on to pitch 3 very solid innings allowing 1 ER prior to running into some trouble in the 6th where with 2 outs he gave up 2 consecutive singles and a walk. Fister exited the game with bases loaded and 2 outs, when Alburquerque promptly gave up a grand slam crediting 3 more ER’s to Fister. Overall, was it a great outing? No. Was it as bad as the box-score showed? Not really. I’m sure it wasn’t easy for either Fister or Nova to come into a game already in progress. Today both pitchers will start the game from the first inning and I expect Fister to be the one to outperform his opponent.
I also want to point out Fister’s L/R splits: 3.75 xFIP against lefties with a 3.56 K/BB and 3.43 xFIP against righties with a 4.75 K/BB. Both are very solid and above average. Nova’s L/R splits are: 4.37 xFIP with 1.45 K/BB against lefties and 3.95 xFIP with a 2.08 against righties. Both are below average and his performance against lefties is very poor. I expect Leyland to have a couple more lefties in this Tigers lineup tonight. I also want to point out that Nova’s home xFIP of 4.48 is much worse than his road xFIP of 3.82. His home HR/9 rate is 1.05 compared to 0.34 on the road. All these factors are very critical, and favor the Tigers here.
A couple days ago I’ve explained my concern with Tigers’ BP, especially their closer Valverde. This is the reason I’m playing this one for the first 5 innings only, as Yankees’ BP is much more dominant.
Finally I’ve compared all the starting pitchers in AL this year that have enough ‘innings’ to qualify, top 40 pitchers in terms of innings and starts. Fister has the 12th best xFIP at 3.62 and 3.03 FIP (5th) compared to Nova’s 33rd ranked 4.15 xFIP and 4.01 FIP (24th). Fister’s xFIP is better than Lester’s, Weaver’s, Masterson’s, Romero’s, and Scherzer’s. Nova’s is better than Carmona’s, Francis’, Guthrie’s, Brad Penny’s, and Vargas’. Now tell me, which pitcher you’d like to back in a pivotal game 5? I expect majority of the public to back the Yankees as they’ll only be comparing the box-scores from game 1.5 starts between Fister and Nova, while using superficial reasons as ‘Yankees have momentum’ and ‘Yankees want it more’, etc. We’ll know better though!
0
. I got Yanks full game hopefully we both cash . 
Good luck today Bodio 
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