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Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs)

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Posted: #26

i have been tailing you, you know what you are doing.  I caution your pick tonight.  One mistake by Fister and this thing can get out of hand quickly.

Nova seems to have the edge in this one.

I don't see the Yankees losing this one at all........

The bats are alive and hot and I can;t say the same for Detroit...

 

GL though

 
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Posted: #27
gL
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Very smart play Bodio.  Fister is a better pitcher as far as advanced numbers go.  Considering an action wager on the first 5 myself.  Tigers already below average bullpen will likely not bring out one of their better young guys Al Alburquerque and like you said in your last write-up on this game it's only a matter of time before Valverde blows one.

Curious what your have for a total in this game?  I'm showing great value in the under as my projections have this game at 7.8.

Got this one at 8.8 total runs.
Lean slightly to the under.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

I think the Yankees could get upset here.

Phillies and Brewers appear to be safe.

Like Tigers chances vs Nova on a second go around. I don't think the Yankees will get more than a run off of Fister tonight.

Nice wager


Sure hope you're right.  And hopefully that 1 run comes in the 6th inning  :)
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by giangho_viet:

Holly crap my book got 1st 5 innning Detroits +125 only , fuck

wow...5Dimes dropped their 5-inning odds to +133 now. 
Pinny is at +131

You guys are causing some crazy odds movement! 
 
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Posted: #31
Thanks, as always, for the write up and pick Bodio... I like the first five pick as opposed to a full game pick on Detroit.  Could easily see Detroit get going early and the Yanks come back strong down the stretch... 

Good Luck Tonight man!
 
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Posted: #32
I do also lean toward the under here..Might make a small action bet on it.


 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by hutasadorn:

Great post as always Butch.

I like the play.

Question.

"I’m sure it wasn’t easy for either Fister or Nova to come into a game already in progress. "

How sure are you that they it wasn't easy for them here? It seems to me like it's just a regular start, with less innings to complete. The game was also tied. Maybe the only thing was that Fister had to pitch first on the road that might throw him a bit off, if any.

It's a hypothesis, as of course I can't be 100% sure about this.  All I know is that starting pitchers have a certain routine and coming into the middle of a game-in-progress can't be good for that routine from the mental stand-point.  
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:



Being a pitcher in the MLB is all about routine and repetition.  Being thrown into a game that's already in progress (albeit one that is tied and only in the 2nd inning) is enough of a break in routine that it can throw of their mental preparation and focus.  Might not seem like a big deal, but inside the head of a major league pitcher, it weighs more than you think.

Excellent points!  
 
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Posted: #35

Tailin u on this one as well, 1st 5 i lock in at +150

Funny thing is that.. 5 minute i log back in to load in more for the bets. Its now back to +140

As i say. WHY not

BOL Bodio

 

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by nowjosh:

i have been tailing you, you know what you are doing.  I caution your pick tonight.  One mistake by Fister and this thing can get out of hand quickly.

Nova seems to have the edge in this one.

I don't see the Yankees losing this one at all........

The bats are alive and hot and I can;t say the same for Detroit...

 

GL though


"One mistake by Fister and this thing can get out of hand quickly."
One mistake by Nova and this thing could get out of way quickly also -- Tigers are a top-5 offense in the majors.

"Nova seems to have the edge in this one."
Seems?  what does that mean? Provide some analysis please as my research has shown that Fister is way undervalued as he has tremendous edge over Nova here.

"I don't see the Yankees losing this one at all"
Vegas thinks that the Yankees have a 62% chance to win this game.  You have to account that the odds are inflated as Yankees are a huge public team and Vegas knows majority of the bettors will be on them tonight.  So let's say that their odds of winning are around 57-58%.  You might want to get your eyes checked out if you can't 'see them losing at all' here  :)  (this is a joke--I just had to )

"I don't see the Yankees losing this one at all"
See my last paragraph of my write-up about using 'superficial' factors to justify a play.  
 
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Posted: #37
  BOL today!
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Cao75:

Tailin u on this one as well, 1st 5 i lock in at +150

Funny thing is that.. 5 minute i log back in to load in more for the bets. Its now back to +140

As i say. WHY not

BOL Bodio

 


Yeah, these odds are moving quick.  
PM me if you want to get the play quicker.  Might help in getting better odds going forward.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:



"The bats are alive and hot and I can;t say the same for Detroit."
See my last paragraph of my write-up about using 'superficial' factors to justify a play.  
 
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Posted: #40
Stupid question since I've never bet on the first 5 innings before - and in looking at my book's rules - it is not clear if a tie after five innings is a push.  I assume that's the case - please clarify (sorry for the dumb question, I don't bet a lot of baseball, but I like this play)


 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by _keyser_soze_:

Stupid question since I've never bet on the first 5 innings before - and in looking at my book's rules - it is not clear if a tie after five innings is a push.  I assume that's the case - please clarify (sorry for the dumb question, I don't bet a lot of baseball, but I like this play)



yes, a tie is a push.
At some books you can bet +0.5 or -0.5 runs which will eliminate the tie but in this case I don't advise it.  It'll just reduce your potential winning amount as +0.5 is at more or less even odds
 
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Posted: #42

BODIO IM WITH KEYSER NEVER BET 1ST 5 B4 THIS MEANS AT THE TOP OF THE 6TH IF DETROITS WINNING I WIN? IF IS A TIE I PUSH AND IF NY IS WINNING I LOSE????

 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


yes, a tie is a push.
At some books you can bet +0.5 or -0.5 runs which will eliminate the tie but in this case I don't advise it.  It'll just reduce your potential winning amount as +0.5 is at more or less even odds

Thanks.  I've made some nice $$ tailing your plays (I love your totals plays) so I locked this in at +140 (it's already down to +130 at my book) and your analysis is greatly appreciated.



 
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Posted: #44
Bodio can u add me in ur list so i can PM u Ty !!!
 
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Posted: #45


"Nova:

BOS: 4.1 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 4.1 inn / 4 hits / 5 ER
TEX: 7.1 inn / 2 hits / 0 ER
KC: 3.0 inn / 10 hits / 4 ER
TEX: 5.2 inn / 7 hits / 4 ER
KC: 5.1 inn / 9 hits / 7 ER
BOS: 6.1 inn / 8 hits / 4 ER

Total: 36.1 inn / 47 hits / 28 ER for a 6.98 ERA. Hmm…

The interesting thing here is that Nova hasn’t faced the Tigers during the regular season. Actually, he has never started against them (had 2 innings of relief work against them last year) until game 1.5 of this playoff series. Nova went 6.1 innings in that start, allowed 4 hits and 2 ER’s. He had 5 strike-outs to 4 walks. He left the game in the 9th with bases loaded and 1 one. Ayala gave up a ground-out and a single to account for the 2 runs that were applied to Nova. The important factor to take away here is that the ‘unfamiliarity’ angle is gone. Even in his first start against the Tigers, Nova issued 4 walks in 6 innings of work (pretty inefficient). How is he going to fare against them today, when they get to see him for the second time in a week? Well, maybe his 6.98 ERA against the best hitting offenses in AL is a good indicator of his ‘expected’ future performance. "



I just want to add, that in that first game Detroit lineup was put together to face lefty C.C. And after rain delay, by the rules they can't make any roster changes, so that "lefty C.C. lineup" resume game against rigthy Nova. Tonight they have lineup in shape for him


 
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Posted: #46
Could it be your superb detailed analysis has sent this line plummeting??? There's not usually such a disparity between the full game and 5-innings lines...Pinny has the Tigers at +149ml for the game and +130ml over 5 innings.
 
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Posted: #47

Thanks as usual BODIO.

GLA

 
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Posted: #48
BODIO,

Great job this season.  You have been an ATM for a lot of use who follow your plays.  I am on board with you on the TIGERS (5 inn).  I took the +1/2 for INS purposes.  

Thanks
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by mance:



I just want to add, that in that first game Detroit lineup was put together to face lefty C.C. And after rain delay, by the rules they can't make any roster changes, so that "lefty C.C. lineup" resume game against rigthy Nova. Tonight they have lineup in shape for him




Good point mate, i was wondering about the lineups as i couldnt watch the game. Thats very true. I like Bodio's 1st 5 play but im really tempted to sprinkle a unit on DET  @ 2.53
 
 
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Posted: #50
First time poster here,and let me say U R THE FN MAN....What r your thoughts on the double result prop play....Ive never seen you play first five innings....And u do believe the yanks can get down and come back like weve seen time and time again over the years...Im seeing detroit 1st five then yanks to win the game at 8 to 1... looks like some good value on an action wager....What u think...
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