ANOTHER THEORY

If you read my post on the 19th, You know I am not a bettor, but I know how to win money playing the games. First you must realize the entire system is rigged, and wagering is rigged against bettors. I will explain how to win at a later post, but first I want to stimulate some brain function. Anyone remember the greatest show on turf? Rams highscoring Offense, media darlings that never cover. How about the Minnesota vikings with Moss. Horrible ratio of covering the spread. How about the Arizona Cardinals after getting E. James, and all the receivers but couldn't win much less cover. How about the Cowboys of this year, and I can go on. Something all these teams have in common, MEDIA DARLINGS, I notice that preseason hype on teams that are supposed to be great for the paticular year are rarely worth a shit when they hit the field and never cover the spread. Something else these teams all have in common is that after the hipe fades away, the teams win. I can site many examples but latest would probably be the 04 and 05 steelers, pitt was 15-1 in 04 and predicted to win a superbowl that year but lost in the playoffs, 05 season they barely make the playoffs, then win the superbowl. I can't recall any team doing well ATS when the media hypes the team. Another example of the bait and switch, NE Patriots last season were undefeated playing the giants.. Giants didn't even win their division but took NE out. All week prior to the Superbowl all you heard was the undefeated Patriots. Think about this post, I will respond with another post and give some keys to victory if you must bet.

I have noticed this phenominon over the past 10 years...I began the season fading Dallas only to watch this team cover almost every week until their debacle vs. Washington.  After continuing to fade them through the Brad Johnson era and recouping some of my losses, I believe now that Romo is back at the helm, this week is a prime spot to fade this Dallas team.  SF is no pushover with a strong leader in Mike Singletary as HC, and I believe this is a great spot to take them as a 10pt Dog.

Theres nothing rigged against anybody. Understand the overall balance in the NFL, back teams with decent defenses, balanced offenses and understand matchups and you can win in the NFL. I would agree with one thing you said in general, don't get caught up in what the media says or is hyping-look at true numbers and actual performance and understand that you'll pay a premium to bet the current flavor of the month.  As far as the greatest show on turf, they were covering machines that first year until the postseason.

Vinny,

If I were to say I am certain the games are fixed. And lets say I could pick a winner ATS, How many winners would I have to pick for you to believe that the fix is in? Just a question, curious to the response. Once again, I am not a bettor but I play one on tv. lol.

Like I said, an official may get away with some form of point shaving here and there but not a chance in hell the league has any influence in it, because then players would have to get involved and that would have leaked out long ago. Same with officials if they were told to help a result by the league. It just isn't feasible in any way, and the league has great storylines year after year just by the nature of the overall competitiveness of the league. The athletes now are stronger and faster than ever and the product is so good and so well marketed, the NFL doesn't have to do anything but collect money. If you are certain there is fixing and the league is involved, then you are a total lunatic, but that's not unusual on forums like this. Makes people laugh, I guess.

Well we agree on several things but me being a lunatic isn't one of them, lol. You said exactly what I am and have been saying. I have been doing a study for nine years, first let me say that I have not found one instance that a PRO player has thrown a game or tried to shave points in all the games I have taped. As a matter of fact from the tapes, the only thing that stands out are the refs. When I say the game is fixed, I am referring to the outcome versus point spread not the game in general. I can site over a thousand cases from all sports, from 1999 to 2008 that the point spread was won or lost based on referee calls that were a little controversial to extremely controversial. Think outside the box for a minute Vinny

But your original point was that you have some insight into future results. Do you know an official who is helping some games along? I have no doubt about the fact that greed has turned some officials corrupt, especially in basketball where the game moves so fast and a few calls can keep a team within a number when needed. You act as if you are aware of a current situation with an NFL official.

Um, Neil ODonells 2 interceptions in the Super Bowl vs the Cowboys back in 1994 were very suspect. He didnt have any receivers within 20 yards of thos interceptions. Also, I dont believe the players are involved, maybe the Qb, but I do believe the offensive & defensive coordinators can be bought & the refs are definately in on something!

Vinny,

 By the way, I have been at this site for years. I never signed up, never came to the forums, never played contests. I still don't play the contests but just recently signed up because I am nearing the end of my 10 year study, 9 down 1 to go. I have been collecting some needed information from the site over the years. I guess if you think I just recently appeared to make you laugh, then laugh. I also said I don't bet on games, however I didn't say I couldn't pick the games.

Vinny, I do have insight without knowing a ref. I will leave it at that.I am sure there are alot of lunatics that post crazy things. And common sense would say if it were fixed, it would leak..All true except if the people doing the fix stood to do jail time, not to mention losing their jobs. If players were involved no doubt it would leak, If other unknown, unnamed business minded people were involved they are smarter than to talk.

One last thing before I go to bed, I am attempting to get people to understand something I barely understand after 9 years. On top of that i am trying to express my points of view in small posts, which makes it even harder. I am trying to site 9 years of what I believe is pointspread fixing in small paragraphs. After nine years I can point the finger at the refs, I have other suspicions of where to point the finger but seeing the man behind the mask is tougher than seeing the front lines (refs).

You said you would explain how to win at a later post and insinuated it had to do with things being rigged, or at least some things being influenced by somebody. Now you say you never said you could pick games, when on the top of this thread you said you could. Maybe I'm not understanding you. What a surprise.

Vinny,

  Slow down and read it closer, I said I didn't bet on games!!! I never said I couldn't pick the games. Reread the post, I just requoted it for you. And yes I will post a winner before Sunday to prove a point.

Ok Vinny,

     Since you are at least responding, even if you think I am a nut I will pick the TN versus NYJ game. In an earlier post you stated to pick a team with a decent defense, balanced offense and understanding matchups right? I picked this game because it seems fitting for what you called for in an earlier post and since I am from Tennessee that is all the more reason to fling it. Before I post my pick which I might add will not be today I would like to hear your pick on this game. TN is at home as a 4 point favorite. If you prefer I pick another game just say so and I will drop this game like a hot potato. But there is one disclaimer I must warn about at this time. I can't pick every game, if you choose for me to switch I may decline. And get the thought out of your head that me being in TN and choosing the TN game, lol. NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Jeff, I'm interested in what you have to say.  Do these games happen every week or Is it situational?

Ok Tommy,

    Be a little more specif when you say these games so I know we are on the same page. I will assume you mean fixed. EVERY WEEK for 11 years I am aware. Like I have been saying I can't explain every detail on how this operation works but I have the jist and could explain more in person than small paragraphs. I know if I write long explanations I will probably loose you or confuse you.

The reason I just said 11 years instead of 9 years if you have been reading my posts is that I made this discovery 11 years ago and began a study 9 years ago. The first game that drew my attention to detail was the 1997 Iowa versus Iowa St game. Iowa was a 31.5 favorite, 1:04 seconds remaining in the game, Iowa was leading by 29 points, Iowa St had no timeouts left and had to punt from their 4 yard line. Everyone expected Senior kick returner Tim Dwight to call for a fair catch, then Iowa kneel twice and run out the clock. This did not happen, The Iowa ST punter shanked the punt, Dwight caught the ball on about the 38 yardline in a full sprint and scored. Both Iowa and Iowa St players basically stood there. Iowa didn't block and Iowa St didn't tackle. One of the weirdest plays you will ever see. This being said, the only thing weirder was the penalty flag for blocking in the back that was called against Iowa. The guy they called the penalty on was not even in the game and nobody from Iowa was even blocking on the runback. The announcer of the game went crazy, saying this is a bogus call as if the announcer had money on the game. This call did appear to be bogus and most definately changed the outcome for bettors. Long story short as possible, during college I have to give a 20 minute presentation and chose the sports gambling topic. Over 9 years later I am still on this topic as it really caught my interest.

In a weird way it all seems to come together, People keep saying this is a multi-billion dollar business and I am crazy. When they say multibillion dollar business the sort of make my point. I know I move fast and change topics fast but try to keep up, Ever notice a team that sucks one year gets a new stadium and all of a sudden they play great? This is not 100% occurence but it is a very high occurence in all sports. When you say multibillion dollar business you make my point. New stadium=mullions spent, Team sucks=seats empty losing money. On the other hand, Team doing great= Butt's in seats filling the stadium, buying merchandise and paying off the stadium faster. Look at the business aspect, do you think the team that sucked last year just got great overnight or was there a business decision to help them be winners overnight? Multimillion dollar question

Think outside the box.

jeffsmith70

 

OUT UP OR SHUT-UP, I LL POST LATER, TAKE A HIKE YOU REMIND ME OF A LITTLE GIRL WHO SAYS , I GOT A SECRET------- BUT I CAN T TELL YOU. JOKE

I think the Jets have the run defense to hang with Tenn but I'd rather just let you pick a game you feel you have some insight to. If not the Tenn game how about the Giants and Arizona. Entertain me.

The Jets will cover this game. After the game is over I will tell you how I knew the outcome. Watch ESPN this week they will be promoting the Tennessee Titans. I will also post the Monday night game. And maybe the Sunday night game if I have time. Getting to be a busy time of year. After I win, you can say anyone can pick one game, lol. After I win 3 you can say I am lucky. Good luck