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Rod's NBL Round 8

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Overall YTD (25-16-0) +31.60 units
 
Up and down for me last 2 rounds. Will try and rectify that trend this round which has the potential to be the best of the season with 2 blockbuster games between the Kings/Bullets & Kings/Tigers.
 
I will be betting on the Wednesday night game between the Kings/Bullets to start the round. Back a bit later.
 
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Prospect
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Posted: #5
Hey Rod,
 
originally i was liking the Kings, but i see the Battler liking Bullets so now i have a closer look and the finer points.
 
 
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Posted: #6

GL tonight Rod

 
Legend
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Posted: #7
Big one for me to start the round
 
Bullets +3 over Kings (7)
 
Bullets ML over Kings - (+135) (3.5)
 
Similar to when the two teams met earlier this season how can you not take the points here?
 
Both historically play each other very close and this isn't a recent phenomenen, it has been case for the last 3 seasons now. Further the Kings shot the lights out of the ball especially from the perimter when they won at the Convention Centre, it was one of those nights where all their shooters ran hot. They could very well do it again but I think tonight there will be a sense of desperation with respect to the Bullets, they have not been faced with 3 potential losses in a row for a very long time now and IMO whilst they have been sleepwalking their way to start the season it is a game like this which can very easily get their season started.
 
 
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Posted: #8
Good luck Rod
 
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Posted: #9
Good to see we're on the same side mate  
 
Legend
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Posted: #10
Bullets +3/ML =
 
I've got some work to do this round. Skipping tomorrow's game over in New Zealand. Will focus on Friday and weekend games.
 
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Posted: #11
Bullets have lost their way. Not sure who they play next but would tip them to win next game.
 
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Legend
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Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:

Bullets have lost their way. Not sure who they play next but would tip them to win next game.

They have the Wildcats at Perth on the weekend. Something has to give as both teams are heading in the same direction and that's south

 
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I like perth in that one if the line is reasonable. i reckon home court advantage is being underestimate a bit.
 
Perth @ home margins: +32, +4, +14
Perth away margins: -13, +16, -9, -17, -10
 
Cairns @ home margins: +24, +16, -17, +22
Cairns away margins: +5, +5, -7, -17, -14, -2, -21
 
Bit simplistic but if you look in more detail i think it stands up. I think home court is worth a fair bit more than 3 points at the moment. 
 
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Posted: #15
Great info Binomial
 
Legend
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Posted: #16
binomial will respond to your post after tonight's game, I have some thoughts about those numbers  
 
Round recovery to hopefully commence tonight
 
o203.5 Hawks v Crocs
 
 
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #17
o203.5 Hawks v Crocs =
 
Tanking big time this round
 
I'll look at the games tomorrow and if I don't really like any will pull the plug on the round.
 
Legend
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

I like perth in that one if the line is reasonable. i reckon home court advantage is being underestimate a bit.
 
Perth @ home margins: +32, +4, +14
Perth away margins: -13, +16, -9, -17, -10
 
Cairns @ home margins: +24, +16, -17, +22
Cairns away margins: +5, +5, -7, -17, -14, -2, -21
 
Bit simplistic but if you look in more detail i think it stands up. I think home court is worth a fair bit more than 3 points at the moment. 

I think the two teams you have used there is probably the best examples of the whole home/road argument as I agree they both are completely different teams at home then they are away (perhaps it has to do with the home crowd as both Perth and Cairns enjoy some pretty vocal support on game day).

As a rule of thumb I use 4 points either way to determine home court advantage - if the Bullets are -2.5 favourites in Perth I'd be expecting a -6.5 advantage at home. If there is a deviation from that it usually acts as a trigger for me to investigate as something is up with the line. Generally finds it works well in the NBA in most cases, don't have enough data in the NBL to really conclude either way at the moment though.

 
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Posted: #19
Interesting points folks and I couldn't agreed more. 
 
Another point worth noting about this season's Bullets is that they have struggled against teams that plays good solid D and can match them offensively basket for basket. Case in point, 0-2 v Kings & 0-1 v Cairns...both these teams have the defense to frustrate the Bullets offense whilst being able to run the ball right down their throats.
 
The loss of Black is more signifcant than people think as he provides that extra scoring punch that allows the Bullets to deliver the KO blows to their opponents without the team placing much emphasis on defense. Gibbo is a young gun still honing his craft & prone to making mistakes when good defensive pressure is applied. If CJ gets into foul trouble, then suddenly the Bullets are very thin in the backcourt.
 
Don't think the Bullets should be fav with it's current form, particularly in Perth since the Cats will rule the boards, make crucial stops & are capable of scoring at will on the Bullets flimsy D. Getting 3 pts with a better defnsive team on their home floor is a bonus as I expect the Cats to win SU. 
 
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Posted: #20
Gents great info
 
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Posted: #21
rod i chose those two teams because i thought they were the best examples. NZ, West Sydney and Singapore are probably on the next tier i reckon.
 
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Posted: #22
For Saturday playing just the one for the moment. Big card tonight.
 
Taipans -9.5 over Hawks (7)
 
Got to take the Snakes in this spot tonight for various reasons:
- Hawks coming off a game last night at the 'gong and now have to take the red eye to Cairns and back up tonight.
- Depth of the Hawks roster is being severely tested right now with Campbell, Tait out injured & Tragardh struggling with a back injury last night.
- Taipans coming off 2 straight losses to the Pigs and the Blaze on the road last week basically face a must win game otherwise they will start losing contact with the top 4.
- Taipans at home are automatically worth at least 6 points as their record at home speaks for itself compared to its road form.
- Mee expected to suit up tonight which will provide more on court leadership for the Taipans as that burden seemingly has been carried by Black so far this season and it also in effect should negate the loss of Tucker who to be honest hasn't had much effect after the past few weeks in any case.
 
 
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Posted: #23
Just some quick thoughts on a couple of other games:-
 
Kings @ Tigers
 
Lean is currently the Tigers. Apart from the Blaze in the opening round at home the Kings have yet to face a quality frontline where I still believe they will be exposed this season. The Tigers are well rested for this one and even though DT is still out with injury their depth is unmatched in the league, Barlow has stepped up as the scoring option with Anstey continuing to dominate the paint. Unless the Kings have another big shooting night from the perimter I think the Tigers will cover fairly comfortably.
 
Crocs @ Dragons
 
No bet for me here. The Crocs really pulled one out last night given it is a team struggling with injuries and most of their players continually finding themselves in foul trouble. The Dragons are still a tough team to get a read on, they probably don't deserve to be laying 9.5 points to anyone right now but with the back to back effect along with the injuries I'm thinking the Crocs will be happy to finish this road trip with a split.
 
I also have no interest whatsoever with the Blaze/Pigs game so passing there. The only other game is the one out West between the Cats and the Bullets.
 
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Posted: #24
I've decided to pass on all the games except for the one I am playing. May make a play in the late one over in the West though.
 
 
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GL with the boys at the snakepit  
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