Just trying to pass on some advice from a long history gambling on sports. Things like recency bias are very real and you should not dismiss them so definitively. Try to find ways to use that to your advantage.
Do I try to bring some humor into it, and maybe poke a little fun at a post/poster that is a bit outlandish and sarcastic? Absolutely. And people make fun of me all the time too. It keeps you humble, and humility is something that we lack as a society in general lately.
FWIW, I am also betting the Crapitals, as +145 is an excellent value for a team that is at Home, and has had success against the Canes (last 2 seasons, H2H 4-4).
Good luck with your plays.
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Just trying to pass on some advice from a long history gambling on sports. Things like recency bias are very real and you should not dismiss them so definitively. Try to find ways to use that to your advantage.
Do I try to bring some humor into it, and maybe poke a little fun at a post/poster that is a bit outlandish and sarcastic? Absolutely. And people make fun of me all the time too. It keeps you humble, and humility is something that we lack as a society in general lately.
FWIW, I am also betting the Crapitals, as +145 is an excellent value for a team that is at Home, and has had success against the Canes (last 2 seasons, H2H 4-4).
@Winningbettor That has nothing to do with the line for game 2. That game is done and over with . They don’t make lines based off that. If you always went off that in betting you would be a broke dude and so would Vegas.
Would Florida be -240 tomorrow night if the series was tied 1-1 or if they were up 2-0 instead of Toronto?
You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
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Quote Originally Posted by Whiteboy13:
@Winningbettor That has nothing to do with the line for game 2. That game is done and over with . They don’t make lines based off that. If you always went off that in betting you would be a broke dude and so would Vegas.
Would Florida be -240 tomorrow night if the series was tied 1-1 or if they were up 2-0 instead of Toronto?
If it was tied 1-1 going back to Florida the would be -170-200 because they are defending champs and playing at home with the series tied 1-1 . If they were up 2-0 they would drop a little or might be the same I dunno about the 2-0 line hard to tell
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@thehuntman
If it was tied 1-1 going back to Florida the would be -170-200 because they are defending champs and playing at home with the series tied 1-1 . If they were up 2-0 they would drop a little or might be the same I dunno about the 2-0 line hard to tell
@Whiteboy13 Just having some fun with you White - your statements about the current line not having anything to do with last game played was just nonsensical. Betting is like investing in stocks - a Company's past performance is very much relevant to whether or not you buy their stock for future growth. Does it guarantee it? Nope. But, I think we'd all rather buy stock in a Company that has demonstrated financial success over a period of time, versus a company that has never shown a profit. Hockey teams are no different - Carolina pretty much dominated the Devils in an easy series, and Washington handled Montreal with ease, so when game 1 is so lopsided, and a Road team dominates the Home team as they did, that is a useful piece of data. Do I bet Canes because of that? No. That's called "Recency Bias", and a lot of people fall into that trap. Books take advantage of that by setting a Carolina line at -150 to try and entice all those who have the recency bias, with a line that is not too expensive, and brings in Carolina action until the Caps get to a Dog ML that starts to draw lots of action the other way. So they set the lines factoring everything that will get them to a balanced state of bets and Vig where they maximize profits regardless of who wins. Recency Bias from the last game played is absolutely 100% factored into setting the next game's line.
Good explanation
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Quote Originally Posted by dyamarik:
@Whiteboy13 Just having some fun with you White - your statements about the current line not having anything to do with last game played was just nonsensical. Betting is like investing in stocks - a Company's past performance is very much relevant to whether or not you buy their stock for future growth. Does it guarantee it? Nope. But, I think we'd all rather buy stock in a Company that has demonstrated financial success over a period of time, versus a company that has never shown a profit. Hockey teams are no different - Carolina pretty much dominated the Devils in an easy series, and Washington handled Montreal with ease, so when game 1 is so lopsided, and a Road team dominates the Home team as they did, that is a useful piece of data. Do I bet Canes because of that? No. That's called "Recency Bias", and a lot of people fall into that trap. Books take advantage of that by setting a Carolina line at -150 to try and entice all those who have the recency bias, with a line that is not too expensive, and brings in Carolina action until the Caps get to a Dog ML that starts to draw lots of action the other way. So they set the lines factoring everything that will get them to a balanced state of bets and Vig where they maximize profits regardless of who wins. Recency Bias from the last game played is absolutely 100% factored into setting the next game's line.
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