Wild Card Round

LA Rams -10 5 units

This is my only play of the round as it's the one I feel most confident about. Of course the bookie isn't giving it cheap laying 10 on the road but rather that tbh than laying 13.5 at home which is what it would be in LA.

My plan all along was to heavily fade the NFC South winner in the wildcard round and this is actually the best case scenario having a team that was the SB favorite much of the year and likely top 2 NFC team going against a team with a QB with no playoff experience, whereas it could have been the pesky Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.

The icing on the cake is that Carolina actually beat them this season so there is no way they overlook them or take it easy.

The Panthers were actually outgained in that game but got 3 gift turnovers and actually played out of their minds. It was a favorable schedule spot for Carolina home off back to back road games desperate for a win while the Rams had to travel a lot and were probably a bit too full of themselves.

The Panthers have improved but if you look at the last game vs TB, they could have punched their ticket by beating a team in a total tailspin having lost 4 in a row and 7 of 8, and they couldn't do it. They had 3 turnovers vs a defense that doesn't generate takeaways. They only scored twice vs a team that has the 32nd dead last ranked red zone defense (Rams are 3rd best in red zone). They couldn't pass downfield despite the Bucs missing their top 2 corners. Even when they got a takeaway to start the game they couldn't do anything with it. They had to have help to get in the playoffs via two other NFC South bottom feeder also ran teams and now play one of the best teams in the best division.

Rams don't have many weaknesses. They give up the 2nd least sacks, Stafford had basically 2 games the Carolina game and Atlanta game where he threw picks other than that he hasn't done that much. They have an awesome WR core that is way more explosive than what the Panthers have.

Panthers have played 7 playoff qualified teams this season and the Rams and GB are the only two they beat. In the other 5 games that they lost, not a single time did they keep the margin within double digits. I'm not seeing a SU win here so I'll look for the trend of blowouts when they do lose to continue.

@NutinButtLove

Your thoughts on Texans -3 @ Steelers, if any? 

Good luck! 

Agree, unless the RAMS decide to win by 10 points or less

Carolina all day

Good luck NBL

Not many thoughts as of yet. There is 4 games and 2 sleeps to go before that one and like I said the Rams is possibly my only play of the round.

My first instinct is that that game will go down to the wire. Tbh it's possibly the least attractive game of the round to bet on in my eyes. Quite possibly a FG fest ad the Texans have an excellent defense, a stud long range kicker and woeful red zone offense. I don't like Demeco Ryans as a head coach.

It's the last game of the round and it's MNF. I'll be absolutely shocked if it doesn't come down to a last minute Aaron Rodgers drive.

I lean to the Texans and their defense but I'm not keen on going against Rodgers he still has that clutch time power.

Got you, thanks and good luck on the Rams spread!  

@NutinButtLove

I feel like the rams should crush the panthers today, but hate laying so many points.  I feel much better about playing the under though, which is what I've done.

Good luck to you on your play!