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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Why are the Saints -1 ?

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    golfandgamble
    heatseeker2721
    charlielo55
    User357119
    boomslangp
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    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:30 AM ET #1

    We have two 5-5 teams, pretty evenly matched and GB traveling all the way to New Orleans to a place they haven't played since 2002 and are getting 1 ?

    Saints and pack have split the last 4 meetings, but they did have Favre at Lambeau in those meetings.

    Why aren't the Saints -3 at highest?


    Thanks.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    We have two 5-5 teams, pretty evenly matched and GB traveling all the way to New Orleans to a place they haven't played since 2002 and are getting 1 ?

    Saints and pack have split the last 4 meetings, but they did have Favre at Lambeau in those meetings.

    Why aren't the Saints -3 at highest?


    Thanks.
     
    heatseeker2721
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:32 AM ET #2

    because the books want people to think that greenbay is a value at underdog...they gotta win right on monday night against the aints???
     
    i love the saints
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    because the books want people to think that greenbay is a value at underdog...they gotta win right on monday night against the aints???
     
    i love the saints
     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:38 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by heatseeker2721:

    because the books want people to think that greenbay is a value at underdog...they gotta win right on monday night against the aints???
     
    i love the saints




    I could not agree more. I am not a big fan of fading line movement such as -2.5 to -1, but in this spot where the public loses on MNF most of the time, you almost have to bite the bullet and take the Saints at a near pick...
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    Quote Originally Posted by heatseeker2721:

    because the books want people to think that greenbay is a value at underdog...they gotta win right on monday night against the aints???
     
    i love the saints




    I could not agree more. I am not a big fan of fading line movement such as -2.5 to -1, but in this spot where the public loses on MNF most of the time, you almost have to bite the bullet and take the Saints at a near pick...
     
    charlielo55
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:50 AM ET #4

    No Reggie tonight, I'm surprised the Saints are even favored, can't see them winning this one. Reggie always gives them a short field.
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    No Reggie tonight, I'm surprised the Saints are even favored, can't see them winning this one. Reggie always gives them a short field.
     
    User357119
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:53 AM ET #5

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    boomslangp
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 8:55 AM ET #6

    You pretty much answer your own question in your first sentence, G&G. They are very much, evenly matched. O.K., so the standard spread of -3 for a home team is in question... but the Pack's defense is very opportunistic. Many TD's and INT's and Fumble recovery's here. The Saints will be throwing that pigskin around like panties at a Tom Jones concert! They like to throw that swing pass to Bush (if he plays), often. In my opinion, if one is picked, it's usually for 6, because of the positioning on the field. GB's defensive scoring capabilities are what's keeping the line tight. I'm not saying that GB is the definite play here, I'm just trying to figure out why the line is -1, also. (Lest we forget a safety, which i've been noticing alot of around the league lately.) and college, too!
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    You pretty much answer your own question in your first sentence, G&G. They are very much, evenly matched. O.K., so the standard spread of -3 for a home team is in question... but the Pack's defense is very opportunistic. Many TD's and INT's and Fumble recovery's here. The Saints will be throwing that pigskin around like panties at a Tom Jones concert! They like to throw that swing pass to Bush (if he plays), often. In my opinion, if one is picked, it's usually for 6, because of the positioning on the field. GB's defensive scoring capabilities are what's keeping the line tight. I'm not saying that GB is the definite play here, I'm just trying to figure out why the line is -1, also. (Lest we forget a safety, which i've been noticing alot of around the league lately.) and college, too!
     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:01 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by boomslangp:

    You pretty much answer your own question in your first sentence, G&G. They are very much, evenly matched. O.K., so the standard spread of -3 for a home team is in question... but the Pack's defense is very opportunistic. Many TD's and INT's and Fumble recovery's here. The Saints will be throwing that pigskin around like panties at a Tom Jones concert! They like to throw that swing pass to Bush (if he plays), often. In my opinion, if one is picked, it's usually for 6, because of the positioning on the field. GB's defensive scoring capabilities are what's keeping the line tight. I'm not saying that GB is the definite play here, I'm just trying to figure out why the line is -1, also. (Lest we forget a safety, which i've been noticing alot of around the league lately.) and college, too!


    From what my sources tell me, Bush is not playing and will be filming a sequel to " One night with Kim".

    With that being said, the swing pass will now be thrown to Duece if at all. I know where you're coming from with the turnovers. With that said, you're under play comes into factor.

    I just don't see how this Pack team who DESTROYED the Bears and is a public sweetheart is getting 1. Too many people on this bandwagon, and I have to fade the public with New Orleans as of now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by boomslangp:

    You pretty much answer your own question in your first sentence, G&G. They are very much, evenly matched. O.K., so the standard spread of -3 for a home team is in question... but the Pack's defense is very opportunistic. Many TD's and INT's and Fumble recovery's here. The Saints will be throwing that pigskin around like panties at a Tom Jones concert! They like to throw that swing pass to Bush (if he plays), often. In my opinion, if one is picked, it's usually for 6, because of the positioning on the field. GB's defensive scoring capabilities are what's keeping the line tight. I'm not saying that GB is the definite play here, I'm just trying to figure out why the line is -1, also. (Lest we forget a safety, which i've been noticing alot of around the league lately.) and college, too!


    From what my sources tell me, Bush is not playing and will be filming a sequel to " One night with Kim".

    With that being said, the swing pass will now be thrown to Duece if at all. I know where you're coming from with the turnovers. With that said, you're under play comes into factor.

    I just don't see how this Pack team who DESTROYED the Bears and is a public sweetheart is getting 1. Too many people on this bandwagon, and I have to fade the public with New Orleans as of now...
     
    boomslangp
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:02 AM ET #8

    Here are some GB defensive stats:
    Sacks: 17
    Safeties: 0 (so far, but I feel one tonight)
    Int.: 16
    Fumbles: 2
    TD's: 7
    Blk Kicks: 1
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    Here are some GB defensive stats:
    Sacks: 17
    Safeties: 0 (so far, but I feel one tonight)
    Int.: 16
    Fumbles: 2
    TD's: 7
    Blk Kicks: 1
     
    BigUnit
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:04 AM ET #9

    Green Bay 31 New Orleans 24
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    Green Bay 31 New Orleans 24
     
    Golferman
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:06 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Candeeman:

    GB should pick apart NO.
    BTW, Bush ain't playing tonight. 

    Saints are deeper than you guys think. They have been withour key offensive players all year, Colston for awhile, Duece very limited for quite awhile, Shockey, the list goes on and on, yet they have still maintained the #1 offenseive ranking in the league. Pierre Thomas has really done a great job and Stecker is quietly surprising get it done multi talented running back. The new kid they picked up for kick off and punt returns is pretty darn fast and will surprise a lot of folks. I am a Homer, but I do not bet on the Saints except in rare occaisions, and this just may be one of them.

    Everyone is remembering a blowout win last week for GB and GB tends to be a public favorite team. You might just be surprised at what you see tonite. One thing for sure this wil not be a low scoring boring grind it out ball game. It will be aggresssive passing and moving the ball up and down the field. Should be high scoring as the Saints D is soft, especially against the pass. However, there are times when that Saints D steps up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Candeeman:

    GB should pick apart NO.
    BTW, Bush ain't playing tonight. 

    Saints are deeper than you guys think. They have been withour key offensive players all year, Colston for awhile, Duece very limited for quite awhile, Shockey, the list goes on and on, yet they have still maintained the #1 offenseive ranking in the league. Pierre Thomas has really done a great job and Stecker is quietly surprising get it done multi talented running back. The new kid they picked up for kick off and punt returns is pretty darn fast and will surprise a lot of folks. I am a Homer, but I do not bet on the Saints except in rare occaisions, and this just may be one of them.

    Everyone is remembering a blowout win last week for GB and GB tends to be a public favorite team. You might just be surprised at what you see tonite. One thing for sure this wil not be a low scoring boring grind it out ball game. It will be aggresssive passing and moving the ball up and down the field. Should be high scoring as the Saints D is soft, especially against the pass. However, there are times when that Saints D steps up.

     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:06 AM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

    Green Bay 31 New Orleans 24


    Hey Big Unit, you gotta wait til I post my play to come in with that shit!


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    Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

    Green Bay 31 New Orleans 24


    Hey Big Unit, you gotta wait til I post my play to come in with that shit!


     
    boomslangp
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:08 AM ET #12

    I see your angle now (I think). You aren't questioning the Saints, you are questioning the Packers as an underdog. Do you feel that with the public hammering the Pack, maybe they should be favored, but because they're not (yet) you lean towards N.O.????
    Is this screaming TRAP!?
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    I see your angle now (I think). You aren't questioning the Saints, you are questioning the Packers as an underdog. Do you feel that with the public hammering the Pack, maybe they should be favored, but because they're not (yet) you lean towards N.O.????
    Is this screaming TRAP!?
     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:08 AM ET #13

    Golferman, great analysis. I think we are on the same page here with GB being a public dog and people think they are going to come into Nawlins and stomp the yard.


    The Saints are always going to be an offensive force and tough to defend. Though boomslangp posted some impressive defensive statistics, the Saints are not going to lay down tonight. They'll be airing it out left and right. I hope Harris gets burned deep by Colston for one.
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    Golferman, great analysis. I think we are on the same page here with GB being a public dog and people think they are going to come into Nawlins and stomp the yard.


    The Saints are always going to be an offensive force and tough to defend. Though boomslangp posted some impressive defensive statistics, the Saints are not going to lay down tonight. They'll be airing it out left and right. I hope Harris gets burned deep by Colston for one.
     
    BigUnit
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:09 AM ET #14

    Sorry!
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    Sorry!
     
    WillyWonka
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:10 AM ET #15

    Lets go Saints..........
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    Lets go Saints..........
     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:10 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by boomslangp:

    I see your angle now (I think). You aren't questioning the Saints, you are questioning the Packers as an underdog. Do you feel that with the public hammering the Pack, maybe they should be favored, but because they're not (yet) you lean towards N.O.????
    Is this screaming TRAP!?


    Yes sir. I think the Saints should be -3 here at lowest. They ALWAYS score points and are tough to defend.

    And yes, I do think that the Pack and most public dogs are a public nightmare. I like my chalk as this site knows, but I DO NOT like public dogs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by boomslangp:

    I see your angle now (I think). You aren't questioning the Saints, you are questioning the Packers as an underdog. Do you feel that with the public hammering the Pack, maybe they should be favored, but because they're not (yet) you lean towards N.O.????
    Is this screaming TRAP!?


    Yes sir. I think the Saints should be -3 here at lowest. They ALWAYS score points and are tough to defend.

    And yes, I do think that the Pack and most public dogs are a public nightmare. I like my chalk as this site knows, but I DO NOT like public dogs.
     
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:12 AM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

    Sorry!


    No worries. You're predictions went 0-3 in my thread yesterday. Keep em coming...
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

    Sorry!


    No worries. You're predictions went 0-3 in my thread yesterday. Keep em coming...
     
    Golferman
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:26 AM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:

    Golferman, great analysis. I think we are on the same page here with GB being a public dog and people think they are going to come into Nawlins and stomp the yard.


    The Saints are always going to be an offensive force and tough to defend. Though boomslangp posted some impressive defensive statistics, the Saints are not going to lay down tonight. They'll be airing it out left and right. I hope Harris gets burned deep by Colston for one.

    Better yet is the sleeper, Meachem. That kid can get down the field before you know it and Lance Moore is developing into a great possession receiver and possibly Brees' most reliable target.

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    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:

    Golferman, great analysis. I think we are on the same page here with GB being a public dog and people think they are going to come into Nawlins and stomp the yard.


    The Saints are always going to be an offensive force and tough to defend. Though boomslangp posted some impressive defensive statistics, the Saints are not going to lay down tonight. They'll be airing it out left and right. I hope Harris gets burned deep by Colston for one.

    Better yet is the sleeper, Meachem. That kid can get down the field before you know it and Lance Moore is developing into a great possession receiver and possibly Brees' most reliable target.

     
    heatseeker2721
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:27 AM ET #19

    i wont ever look at stats or how they match up..this game is a show at the superdome... i think they havent played ther in a while..saints will play there hearts out tonight...wht eles in  this season are they playing for .. MNF at superdome....its not about stats in my eyes... it heart baby...saints want this... the line is screaming....
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    i wont ever look at stats or how they match up..this game is a show at the superdome... i think they havent played ther in a while..saints will play there hearts out tonight...wht eles in  this season are they playing for .. MNF at superdome....its not about stats in my eyes... it heart baby...saints want this... the line is screaming....
     
    golfandgamble
    golfandgamble
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:29 AM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by heatseeker2721:

    i wont ever look at stats or how they match up..this game is a show at the superdome... i think they havent played ther in a while..saints will play there hearts out tonight...wht eles in  this season are they playing for .. MNF at superdome....its not about stats in my eyes... it heart baby...saints want this... the line is screaming....


    The last home game they played was to Oakland on 10-12. They won and covered.

    Welcome home!
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    Quote Originally Posted by heatseeker2721:

    i wont ever look at stats or how they match up..this game is a show at the superdome... i think they havent played ther in a while..saints will play there hearts out tonight...wht eles in  this season are they playing for .. MNF at superdome....its not about stats in my eyes... it heart baby...saints want this... the line is screaming....


    The last home game they played was to Oakland on 10-12. They won and covered.

    Welcome home!
     
    heatseeker2721
    heatseeker2721
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:30 AM ET #21

    i think its might stay under... i like to go opposite the fourm consenses....which is over ....everyone is on over.. i did initally like the over also...
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    i think its might stay under... i like to go opposite the fourm consenses....which is over ....everyone is on over.. i did initally like the over also...
     
    3POINTDOG
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:40 AM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    Yes sir. I think the Saints should be -3 here at lowest. They ALWAYS score points and are tough to defend.

    And yes, I do think that the Pack and most public dogs are a public nightmare. I like my chalk as this site knows, but I DO NOT like public dogs.

    you hit it.. I dont think this is smart money on the packers just the public.... i agree when the pub is on the fav no big deal they always are, but when the pub is on the dog... fade away...

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    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    Yes sir. I think the Saints should be -3 here at lowest. They ALWAYS score points and are tough to defend.

    And yes, I do think that the Pack and most public dogs are a public nightmare. I like my chalk as this site knows, but I DO NOT like public dogs.

    you hit it.. I dont think this is smart money on the packers just the public.... i agree when the pub is on the fav no big deal they always are, but when the pub is on the dog... fade away...

     
    heatseeker2721
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:40 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    The last home game they played was to Oakland on 10-12. They won and covered.

    Welcome home!
    oohh baby they are goona be jumpin n there...

    u know they are stright up gonna be more ready and want the win much more then the pack...i am puttin 4 units on it. the more i talk to you i might go bigger

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    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    The last home game they played was to Oakland on 10-12. They won and covered.

    Welcome home!
    oohh baby they are goona be jumpin n there...

    u know they are stright up gonna be more ready and want the win much more then the pack...i am puttin 4 units on it. the more i talk to you i might go bigger

     
    BigUnit
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:46 AM ET #24

    Line did initially open up Saints -3.
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    Line did initially open up Saints -3.
     
     
    boomslangp
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    Posted: Nov. 24, 2008 - 9:52 AM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    No worries. You're predictions went 0-3 in my thread yesterday. Keep em coming...
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    Quote Originally Posted by golfandgamble:



    No worries. You're predictions went 0-3 in my thread yesterday. Keep em coming...
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