My hypothesis is simple. It's easy for people like you and others on covers to have "winning seasons" by offsetting losses with increased unit sizes but don't actually play what you post in full.
I love that statement. If it is easy to do the method you mention above, why isn't everyone doing it? Why isn't it encouraged to do? Sounds like a winning strategy to me! According to you, anyone can increase unit sizes so that they win! So if I've won 7 years in a row by doing this method, isn't the method itself valuable by your definition?
I love how you disprove your own point. You don't like the method even though it's profitable?
Now let's get to reality. I don't do what you say. I never post anything over five units and four units is rare. I never post money lines because I just post spreads. That's all I do. That's why I give the disclaimer that my bet s don't always match what I post, because a lot of times I post a minus three but I get a minus three and a half at a better price, or a money line at a better price, or a plus two at a better price you get the point. I'm certainly not going to post on here my blog of what I bet, why would I do that? I post easily digestible picks for the masses. That's what I do.
Don't like it? Carry on. Skip my posts. It's just so funny that you say I'm successful because I do something that you don't like, therefore you feel a need to say that I don't personally bet it like that would make a difference in the world. What would it matter to anybody reading my pics if I'm actually betting them? Why do you care? Anybody reading it should only care that they win, not that I win.
You are a flawed person. Stay away from me.
Alright, Im sick of you.
Here is what I am willing to do:
1. Show "tickets" for week 18 as follows (everything you posted - with amounts)
Week 18
* Bills -2.75 (3 units) $17k
* Bears +3 (3 units) $9k
* Titans +3.5 (2.5 units) $9k
* Giants +5.5 (2.5 units) $7.5k
* Cards +3 (2.5 units) $8k
* Raiders -3 (2 units) $9k
* Bengals -7 (2 units) $8k
* Texans -2 (2 units) $17k
2. You put in to escrow 1k with a donation to @niallharbison dog rescue charity
3. This is one website that is easy for me to obtain records. I am not digging around others. The amounts listed above is only a portion of what I actually bet, but the amounts surely show I bet them and that is the point of this exercise.
Accept the terms - and we move forward. I am only doing this because the charity will get 1k. This is supreme idiocy, and a giant waste of time - but hey - 1k to the dogs is worth it.
Vanzack - 2023 Regular season
4 unit bets - 4-1-1 => 11.6(-110) =>12(no juice)
3.5 unit bets - 4-2-0 => 6.5(-110) =>7(no juice)
3 unit bets - 16-11-3 => 12(-110) =>16.5(no juice)
2.5 unit bets - 14-9-3 => 7.75(-110) =>11.25(no juice)
2 unit bets - 30-22-3 => 12.2(-110) =>16(no juice)
1.5 unit bets - 5-6-3 => -2.5(-110) =>-1.5(no juice)
1.5 unit bets - 4-2-2 => 1.8(-110) =>3(no juice)
Close to 50 units plus money if you ran it at -110 -> 2000$ a unit and you will have close to 100k
This is good advice unless you have ZEN like discipline or incredibly lucky.
@unplucked_gem
Why does tickets matter to you.. you play the amount you are comfortable with .. have a goal. I would take a consistent winner over flashy 1 season wonder. Vanzack is consistent and posts regularly and is disciplined you just need to be disciplined too and not try a one hit wonder
Right!
Back to the original question OK!
IMHO, one book is head and shoulders above the rest when identifying any line value in the NFL. That would be Pinnacle now and decades for that matter.
Now, if all you are interested is being in a profit at the season's end then identifying Pinnacle's positions on said games is +EV. When their early week lines are
STAND ALONE, then you have confirmation. Use to follow Spiro's leans but Pinny's are golden. Not that much satisfaction tailing, but in most cases I see here
their ROI would greatly be enhanced.....................gl
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