Posted:
#51
Post Deleted
Don't let the book set the number
0
What one piece of advice do you give to someone new to handicapping/gambling?
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:
@vanzack Well then you're slipping. Going to be a long year cuz.
@vanzack Well then you're slipping. Going to be a long year cuz.
Whatever.
I have won seven years in a row - publicly - with stale lines picking NFL sides - so I could lose this year and next and the next after and still have more profit than you could dream of.
GL cuz.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Posted:
#55
Determine a bankroll number and don't deviate off your bet sizes.
If you have $100 bankroll. Determine what you want for bet sizes and stick to them.
Do you want to flat bet on every bet?? ($2 per bet)...some people don't like this cause they feel they have better/higher EV plays that they should bet more on...which I do tend to agree with
If you want a 2 unit system stick to it ($1 and 2$ bets)
If you want a 4 unit system stick to it ($1, $2, $3, $4)
Now you have to attach those unit values to +EV plays
If tyreek hill receiving prop is set at 75.5 yards @1.90 odds for over and 1.90 odds for under and you have him at 65% chance of going over 75.5 yards...now you compare that to the odds (1.90 odds mean you need to win 53 out of every 100 bets)
So your numbers have a 65% chance tyreek goes over and the book is saying its more like 53% chance....you have a 12% +ev advantage...now does that mean you bet 1 unit or 2 units? That's up to your sizing chart...
The most important part is that you are actually identifying +ev plays ...just because your numbers say tyreek has a 65% chance of going over doesn't mean you are actually identifying that number correctly...another guy might say he has a 59% chance (which only makes it a 6% +ev play compared to your 65%)
Pay attention to vanzacks picks. Pay attention to theclaws picks. Pay attention to indigo queries. Maybe some other winners im forgetting
Gl this season
0
Posted:
#56
@C-70Blues
Here is the best advice you're gonna get......
1. Create a Master thread. Use this to post every single one of your plays, 20-30 plays minimum per week.
2. This needs to include all the LIVE in-game bets you will make, often opposite of your original posted bet....think heavy $4 juice type of lines.
3. Use said master thread to include ALL your waking thoughts and feelings. This includes ALL NFL news that comes out through the year. Tyreek's 4th baby momma pops out his 5th offseason kid? You better be here to comment on the gender reveal party. The more information you can cut & paste onto your thread the better. Go big or go home is the motto.
4. Invite your imaginary interweb buddies into your thread. These imaginary people will be your "rock" throughout the year. They will do nothing but applaud and hand clap emoji your every word typed out onto the screen. They will be your never ending cheerleaders, helping you keep your post count near all time highs so that your thread is continuously bumped to the top over and over and over and over.....and over again. They will also be there to pat you on the back when you buy points to take a -7 favorite down to -2.5 then the favorite is down 4 late in the 3rd quarter when you decide to LIVE bet the dog to win SU at -120. When the favorite wins by 1 and you lose 10 units on betting both sides, you'll have your "rock" there to say "good game buddy, we'll get em next time".
5. This is essential. NEVER take a team with anything MORE than -150 line. You HAVE to lay big juice. I'm talking buying 4-5 points type of juice. This is how the big dogs role, a Vegas secret you will never get from anyone else. You love a team at a PK ?? Nope, buy a few points and bump that baby up....the more juice the better. You "like a dog you say" ??? Sorry buddy, NO PLUS money plays allowed. Betting on a Dog is a losing proposition long term when you have the ability to lay -400 or more on a -9 -110 game line.
This will get you started on your journey to become THE best capper in the history of the Covers world. Guaranteed.
Good luck in your adventure and god speed 
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
0
Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:
@C-70Blues Here is the best advice you're gonna get...... 1. Create a Master thread. Use this to post every single one of your plays, 20-30 plays minimum per week. 2. This needs to include all the LIVE in-game bets you will make, often opposite of your original posted bet....think heavy $4 juice type of lines. 3. Use said master thread to include ALL your waking thoughts and feelings. This includes ALL NFL news that comes out through the year. Tyreek's 4th baby momma pops out his 5th offseason kid? You better be here to comment on the gender reveal party. The more information you can cut & paste onto your thread the better. Go big or go home is the motto. 4. Invite your imaginary interweb buddies into your thread. These imaginary people will be your "rock" throughout the year. They will do nothing but applaud and hand clap emoji your every word typed out onto the screen. They will be your never ending cheerleaders, helping you keep your post count near all time highs so that your thread is continuously bumped to the top over and over and over and over.....and over again. They will also be there to pat you on the back when you buy points to take a -7 favorite down to -2.5 then the favorite is down 4 late in the 3rd quarter when you decide to LIVE bet the dog to win SU at -120. When the favorite wins by 1 and you lose 10 units on betting both sides, you'll have your "rock" there to say "good game buddy, we'll get em next time". 5. This is essential. NEVER take a team with anything MORE than -150 line. You HAVE to lay big juice. I'm talking buying 4-5 points type of juice. This is how the big dogs role, a Vegas secret you will never get from anyone else. You love a team at a PK ?? Nope, buy a few points and bump that baby up....the more juice the better. You "like a dog you say" ??? Sorry buddy, NO PLUS money plays allowed. Betting on a Dog is a losing proposition long term when you have the ability to lay -400 or more on a -9 -110 game line. This will get you started on your journey to become THE best capper in the history of the Covers world. Guaranteed. Good luck in your adventure and god speed
@C-70Blues Here is the best advice you're gonna get...... 1. Create a Master thread. Use this to post every single one of your plays, 20-30 plays minimum per week. 2. This needs to include all the LIVE in-game bets you will make, often opposite of your original posted bet....think heavy $4 juice type of lines. 3. Use said master thread to include ALL your waking thoughts and feelings. This includes ALL NFL news that comes out through the year. Tyreek's 4th baby momma pops out his 5th offseason kid? You better be here to comment on the gender reveal party. The more information you can cut & paste onto your thread the better. Go big or go home is the motto. 4. Invite your imaginary interweb buddies into your thread. These imaginary people will be your "rock" throughout the year. They will do nothing but applaud and hand clap emoji your every word typed out onto the screen. They will be your never ending cheerleaders, helping you keep your post count near all time highs so that your thread is continuously bumped to the top over and over and over and over.....and over again. They will also be there to pat you on the back when you buy points to take a -7 favorite down to -2.5 then the favorite is down 4 late in the 3rd quarter when you decide to LIVE bet the dog to win SU at -120. When the favorite wins by 1 and you lose 10 units on betting both sides, you'll have your "rock" there to say "good game buddy, we'll get em next time". 5. This is essential. NEVER take a team with anything MORE than -150 line. You HAVE to lay big juice. I'm talking buying 4-5 points type of juice. This is how the big dogs role, a Vegas secret you will never get from anyone else. You love a team at a PK ?? Nope, buy a few points and bump that baby up....the more juice the better. You "like a dog you say" ??? Sorry buddy, NO PLUS money plays allowed. Betting on a Dog is a losing proposition long term when you have the ability to lay -400 or more on a -9 -110 game line. This will get you started on your journey to become THE best capper in the history of the Covers world. Guaranteed. Good luck in your adventure and god speed
Classic. Made me lol
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#67
For the love of Jesus never blindly tail on here. Yes, there are some good cappers on here but no one is an all seeing god and winning/losing can be streaky. If I got a nickel every time I saw someone tail blind on here , lose and then blame the capper they tailed I’d be a billionaire. Go small, learn from mistakes and never chase.
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
2
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