Week 12 Props n Plays

I'm liking the matchups this week better than last week. We'll see if that translates to more success. 

ARI -2.5 +160 - Jacksonville beat up on LAC in a weird game where they didn't really have to do much because the chargers never got off the plane. Arizona is coming off an insane passing performance in a blow out loss where they moved the ball so well but couldn't keep up with scoring. This just looks like a dud game for the Jags and a spot for Arizona to bounce back. Jacksonville is especially bad against the TE and giving up passing scores. Expect a big day for McBride. 

Adonai Mitchell o23.5 rec yds - Jets are desperate for a receiver to step up with Garrett Wilson down. Mitchell led in targets with 6 against the Pats, but it was Fields throwing and he dropped a deep shot that was a beautifully thrown ball by Fields. Taylor is starting now and should be able to connect. BONUS o39.5 +220, o64.5 +700

Hunter Henry o38.5 rec yds - Cincinnati is incredibly bad at covering TEs. See Washington, Loveland, Freiemuth, etc, etc. TEs are having their best game of the year against Cincinatti every week. TD +185 may be a bet as well

Nick Chubb TD +375 - Buffalo cannot stop the run. They've given up at least one rushing score in 9 of 10 games, against everyone they've faced except the Jets. This is a Thursday game on short rest and Marks is coming off a 19 touch game so Chubb could get more work than he's had the last couple games. I expect Chubb to get work near the goal line and hopefully he can punch it in for the big payday

Im kind of liking Cincinatti +8 and moneyline. It seems like the right time to fade New England coming off another dominating win and now going on the road and guys stepping up with Chase out. Will be considering it further

nick chubb anytime td is +375!?!?!?! 

Exactly, its a lot. Its 350 now on my book. But people dont realize things are different on Thursdays. Marks just had 19 touches Sunday and chubb only had 3. So on a Thursday matchup there's a good chance chubb is more involved and Buffalo bleeds rushing scores. This is a fantastic price for him here

Added:

CIN +8 and ml +275

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Aaron Jones o17.5 rec yds - Green Bay has allowed some impressive receiving lines with chunk plays to RBs and Jones is getting a lot of targets. I was expecting this number to be around 21.5. With a limited QB in McCarthy and an aggressive pass rush in Green Bay I expect Jones to be used effectively in the screen game to get over this number. 

Good Luck Yana

@JD5Terps

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Ty Johnson o6.5 rec yds 

GL  on your plays & props to you @Yanasaur 

@Macwestie1

How's a nice hit 5 mins in 

Great breakdowns BOL 

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Going back to the well 2nd week. Its just too good of a number for a premium receiver to pass up. Matchup isn't great, QB play isn't great, but great players step up in big spots. 

Justin Jefferson o5.5 receptions

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PHI -3 - Fading the hype of Dallas that they fixed their defense after blowing out a pitiful Raiders team. Philly coming off that ugly snoozefest 10-6 against Green Bay. This is the perfect spot for Philly to get their offense right and show they still got it. Philly defense is playing at a very high level now. Im predicting a good passing performance for once and maybe AJ Brown even finds the endzone. 

Added: 

Darius Slayton o37.5 rec yds

Darius Slayton o64.5 rec yds +275

@Yanasaur

Yana, what are your thoughts on Andrei Iosivas over 36.5 rec yards, with Jamar out, and Higgins being blanketed by gonzalez?  He should mainly face off with Marcus jones who isn't a great corner, and perhaps playing from behind most of the day

@thedon88

 I understand the why, but its too high of a number for me and I wouldnt recommend it. We dont know how they will use him since Chase is out. He often runs deeper routes when Chase is in and hes the 3rd WR, but he could be used on underneath stuff today and you might need 4 or 5 catches to hit that number. 

Flacco likes to throw to TEs too, so my recommendation would be to attack a prop for one of the TEs to step up with Chase out at a much lower number. Also, that rookie WR Tinsley has made a couple huge plays this year and should have a chance for more playing time today. My book has his prop at only 13.5, so 1 catch could do it!

Added:

Jameis Winston o226.5 pass yds - Famous Jameis should be able to sling it around today vs Detroit secondary and in fact, they should be throwing a lot. 

Winston o274.5 pass yds +275

GL 

Update:

Im off the Eagles now. No longer playing Eagles -3. Got out for a tiny loss

Good off eagles 

t:team=Cowboys and DIV and season>2016

37-14 SU and 36-15 ATS since after 2016

A LOT of negativity towards DAK but within the division he is money. 

Good luck this week