Week 10 Props and Plays

No props yet of course, and not officially playing any of these yet, but there's a couple sides and totals I'm keen to watch over the week. We will wait and see how these lines move and if we can get even better numbers as I suspect we can. I normally don't have this many sides/totals that elevate my interest but this week looks really good.

CIN/BAL u52.5 (I just dont think the 2nd iteration of this game is going to be up and down the field like last time. Its TNF this time and second half of the season. I expect some defensive adjustments made by both teams to slow this thing down and keep it in the 40s this time)

IND +4.5 (I'm a Bills fan and normally dont bet any side in their games but this is screaming let down to me. Bills come off a couple blowouts, back home, squeak by arch nemesis w 61 yd fg from struggling kicker. Buffalos defense is still not very good, JT might feast, Indy spread + ml)

PIT ML +115 (This is the week Washington's offense finally looks pedestrian. Steelers rested off bye, defense has the talent to contain this explosive WAS offense and do just enough on offense themselves to win)

HOU ML +135 (This is the week Detroit stumbles. Houston/Stroud are much much better at home and I love the way their defense has been playing. Im not concerned about the Halloween game at Jets, that was just a weird game and a bad spot for them. I think the Houston D Line will slow down the Detroit rushing attack and force Goff into rare errors and I think Dell and Schultz will have big games receiving and Mixon too)

Lean but not as confident MIN/JAX o46 (played Jax over vs Philly, think we hit again here w their bad defense and always falling behind and having to throw 2/3 of the game)

Watching this MNF total, hitting over 37.5 if we're lucky enough to get it, maybe if Tampa punts again

Live play on:

Bucky Irving o12.5 rec yds

Live plays I do 1/4u to 1/2u

Flashed 38 for a second and i played over

Live 

Noah Gray o13.5 rec

And Hopkins over 

Went 1-2 on small live plays yesterday but 2-0 on regular size pregame plays w Hopkins rec and TD, forgot I had posted that in a separate thread. 

Just one play so far:

Zay Flowers o58.5 rec yds

-Im going to resist the urge to bet u91.5 rush yds for Henry bc the number is absurd but im not suicidal, but part of me wants to play it on principle. Discipline is what wins though. I wanted to play u52.5 also bc I think TNF and 2nd meeting we see some positive defensive adjustments but again, exercise discipline no reason to play this. 

-Missed the 4.5 number on Indy, so now we will wait and see if it goes back and take it or we will continue waiting til Sunday to play whatever it is then

Not a ton of props available just yet but a few I really like here.

Added:

Courtland Sutton TD +260 (Denvers run game is not very good and KC rush D is great. If DEN scores most likely it will be through the air and Nix particularly looks for Sutton. I bet this last week and Sutton had 3 end zone targets they couldnt connect on including getting stopped at the 1 late in game)

Bo Nix o24.5 rush yds (I expect DEN to be passing all game and Nix to take off running when he cant find anyone open vs this tough KC D. Baker hit 20 yds, Lamar ran for 122 in week 1)

Rome Odunze o41.5 rec yds (Odunze gets the further downfield targets in this offense and NE has allowed multiple receivers over this number in multiple games including to QBs Mason Rudolph and Tyler Huntley)

@Yanasaur

 Was gonna pound chuba rushing prop...now panthers announce j.brooks may make season debut....for fuck sakes lol

Start an injured rookies career in an overseas game in Germany....Panthers are morons 

Stroud doesn’t play well when he doesn’t have his 2 best recievers. No nico and no diggs. 

@dubz4dummyz

I dont know what they would make the number probably something around the high 60s to low 70s is my guess. I would lay off it personally bc I like the Giants pass rush therefore they dont have to fear young beating them through the air and they can stack the box to stop the CAR rush attack. 

@Pho-20

 Thats a good point. Disappointed the Indy line dropped down a full point. Shouldve played it right away

Added:

Matt Gay o1.5 fg

Chad Ryland o1.5 fg

Shoulda trusted my instinct and bet the under henry rushing and under game total i mentioned when i put in my flowers over which is not looking good

Flowers o58.5 rec yds 

No idea what happened. I was trying to see if maybe Cincy was doubling up Flowers all night but couldnt tell. He only had 1 target at a good distance I believe and it was a little under thrown by Lamar. I noticed Flowers was on the outside a lot too and not as much slot as he normally plays and maybe that was part of the game plan that Ravens knew he would draw more coverage outside and open up the middle for andrews and bateman. Then there was that little quick out pass to tylan wallace that went the distance, dont know why flowers didnt get it. Oh well on to the next one

0-1 to start week 10

Added:

Van Jefferson o15.5 rec yds (Russell Wilson gave him 5 targets and 62 yds last time out and seemed to trust him, game before that 3 targets and 2 for 15)

Added:

IND +4

PIT +110

Added:

HOU +3.5

Full remaining card:

Courtland Sutton TD +260

Bo Nix o24.5 rush yd

Rome Odunze o41.5 rec yds (number is actually lower now, went the other way)

Matt Gay o1.5 fg

Chad Ryland o1.5 fg

Van Jefferson o15.5 rec yds

IND +4

PIT +110

HOU +3.5

Forgot one:

CHI -6

Not a good week, 4-7, but hit the +260 TD so only a small loss on the week. I found myself searching too much to find plays this week and thats not a recipe for success. I had a thought to cancel the flowers bet on Thursday but didnt. The Courtland Sutton TD jumped off the page for me first thing and it hit. Also jumping off the page was IND, PIT, and HOU, and 2 of 3 there. All the other plays werent stand outs and shouldnt have been played and it wouldve been a phenomenal week. 

Ive said it in previous weeks and I'll say it again. Discipline is THE MOST important thing in sports betting. Early in the season I wasnt disciplined and results were mixed, last 5 weeks or so have been absolute money bc I was disciplined in what I played, and this week I let that discipline slip and we see bad results. 

No more hunting for plays. If they dont jump off the page then they arent good plays. The past few weeks just happened to have a lot more plays that stood out as opposed to this week. 

On to week 11