Week 1 to Week 2 overreactions - Remember last year?

Turn on ESPN or sports radio and all you hear is "Do not overreact to week 1 games - DO NOT"

But how can we not overreact?  With RG3 highlights and Peyton Manning all over the ticker - how can we not keep this in the back of our mind as we walk up to the betting window?

Well, for me, it will be at the very front of my mind as I approach the window - and I won't be overreacting. 

Let's look at last year's biggest storylines from week 1:

Bears win straight up as underdogs against the high flying Falcons.  What happens the next week?  Falcons win straight up as dogs, and the Bears get blown out.

Ravens blow out Steelers.  What happens week 2?  Ravens lose as road favorites and the Steelers blow out Seattle, not allowing a single point.

Giants beat down as favorites by the lowly Redskins week 1.  Very next week, Giants win and cover, Redskins come back in the 4th quarter to beat the Cardinals by 1, not covering.

Very common theme in all of these headlines - the team that underachieved came back and took care of business the next week, while the team that looked great got their asses handed to them.

So let's look at Week 1 to Week 2 of this week:

RG3 whips Saints in his debut - now he faces the lowly Rams week 2.  Public will be all over the Redskins and the short line, I'll be taking the Rams.

Manning puts Steelers away in second half - now he goes on the road to Atlanta, where teams rarely win. 

Jets blow out Bills, Sanchez looks great, now they play the Steelers coming off a double digit loss on national tv.  Give me the Steelers, please. 

And guess what?  The consensus so far are on the Redskins, Broncos, and Jets. 

I like this train of thought.

This is the kind of thought process that will make you money!  I'm on all three of those as well.  I also like the Eagles as another public reaction fade.  BOL

Others to look at:

Cowboys beating up on Giants week 1 - now they face the Seahawks.  Where do you think the money is on this one?

Ravens crush Bengals week 1 - now they play the Eagles who barely beat the Browns.  Money all over Ravens early, of course.

Bears paste Colts, Packers get pasted by 49ers - Looks to be a good spot for the Packers, but early consensus taking Green Bay already.  Won't be touching this one.

Pasteur I was typing out that Eagles play as you commented.  Will be on it as well, and I'm a huge Ravens fan.

You forgot the best one....Cowboys with the huge road victory to open the season against the defending SB Champs.  Now they go on the road against Seattle against a seemingly overwhelmed and overhyped rookie QB.

The Cowboys game has me scratching my head.  I love going the opposite way when the choice is obvious, but with the Cowboys getting the extra time to prepare and Seattle starting a rookie, even I'm leaning Cowboys, heaven help me. 

Eh forget what I just wrote about the Cowboys.  The line is begging for Cowboys action and there's no way I'm stepping on that land mine.  The Cowboys offensive line was exposed in the Giants game and the Seahawks defense has to be salivating while they watch film this week.  I'll be digging into that game more before I touch it

Question:  Which game do you think the public will be more eager to bet on, the Cowboys or Redskins?  The public has to be right sometimes, but it's usually not on the game that they're the most eager to jump on

I guarantee you more action will be on the Redskins.  The RG3 hype is off the charts - and the Rams don't have the home field atmosphere like the Seahawks do.  A lot of people auto-bet the Hawks at home when they are underdogs, same can't be said for Rams. 

Chalk another one up..

Bears and Packers score a combined 114 points in their games last week - put up 33 tonight. 

Bears looked great last week, Packers looked beatable - Packers come out and work the Bears over this week. 

Easy easy $$$

This angle went 3-0 today

Seahawks and Rams win straight up as dogs, Steelers cover by two touchdowns. 


Overreact to week 1