miscellaneous tips regarding pointspreads
More than anything, handicapping is about finding which side, if any, offers "line value". To that end:
Play AGAINST a team that won and covered last week due to a factor that is public knowledge and now has nil or negative line value.
Don’t expect a clearly decisive factor that’s obvious to everyone to again be the decisive factor in the team’s next game. Players and teams off a great performance can relax and the line will be adjusted due to public perception.
The converse is true as well -
Play ON a team that lost SU & ATS last week due to a factor that is public knowledge and now has line value.
Again, don’t expect a clearly decisive factor that’s obvious to everyone to again be the decisive factor in the team’s next game. Players and teams off a poor performance gain experience and will work hard to correct mistakes, and the line will be adjusted, creating line value.
Play AGAINST a team with a line move of more than 2 points in its direction when t! he move is not justified by circumstances.
Many of the usual factors can get quickly built into the line, which leads to tremendous value on the other side.
Edges based on information like player rotation are present, but small ones in exhibition play, and when the line moves too far, the edge can turn around.
While seeing major line moves creates an image of “steam” with real “inside information” crashing the board, the reality is that it does not take much money at all to move these games.
So many sports book operators get nervous at this time of year that not only does a little money move a game a bit, but the notion of moving on air (changing the line because it has moved at other key stores) is quite popular.
Therefore a wager based on a small amount of information can turn into a pointspread avalanche, especially when the betting public follows on top of the first move, believing that the “wise guys” really know something.
These are still only exhibition games, with most outcomes being decided more on mistakes than on merit, and some are nothing more than crap shoots.
Sometimes, though, a crap shoot with line value can be a winning proposition.
Play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play.
These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
Play ON a team that has the line or "juice" moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent.
The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money.
There's a reason it's called "smart" money.
Usually, only a huge injury would ever move an NFL line as aggressively as "sharp" activity can move a small conference college line.
Bookmakers combat that by adding juice instead of points, but the same principle applies as to where the "smart" money is going.
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