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Trends & Things 2009 NFL preseason HOF - week 1

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Posted: #1
Hey everyone ...
 
I updated the Trends & Things thread for the 2008-2009 season >>>
 
A few Links to posts from last preseason >>
 
 
 
On to the new 2009-2010 NFL preseason !
 
HOF game :
 
2009 Preseason Profit Report
By Tony Stoffo

Buffalo – This will be Dick Jauron’s fourth preseason as head coach of the Bills. In the Bills' first preseason game Jauron has had them ready to play covering all three of his Week 1 preseason games. This continues a trend that has seen the Bills go a perfect 5-0 against the spread in Week 1 of the preseason over the past five years. This is developing into one of my strongest preseason trends. This year’s play is on Aug. 9 as the Bills will face the Titans in the Hall of Fame game at Canton, Ohio. Plus, you have to throw in here that in the past three preseasons the Bills are a perfect 7-0 when they take the field as an underdog.

Preseason Playbook - Week 1
By Marc Lawrence
HALL OF FAME GAME
Sunday, August 9

Buffalo vs. Tennessee from Canton, Ohio (8:00 p.m. EDT)
Buffalo - 6-0 Game One… 11-1 L12 as dog… 0-5 UNDER Game One
Tennessee - SERIES: 5-1 SU… 1-3 SUATS Game One… FISHER: 1-3 SUATS on neutral fields

>>>>>

 
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Posted: #2
 looked at Buffalo's preseason record ...and it is impressive , particularly as an underdog >>

Thursday  08/28/08 Detroit L 6-14 Pre-Week 4 L -3 U 34

Sunday    08/24/08

 @ Indi W 20-7 Pre-Week 3 W 6 U 38
Thursday  08/14/08 Pittsburgh W 24-21 Pre-Week 2 W 1 O 33.5

Saturday  08/09/08

 @ Wash L 14-17 Pre-Week 1 W 6

U 35.5

 
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Thusday 08/30/07 @ Detroit W 16-13 Pre-Week 4 W 3 U 37.5
Friday   08/24/07 Tennessee L 17-28 Pre-Week 3 L -3 O 37
Friday   08/17/07 Atlanta L 10-13 Pre-Week 2 L -3 U 35
Friday   08/10/07 @ New Orleans W 13-10 Pre-Week 1 W 6

U 36

 

Thursday 08/31/06

 @ Detroit W 20-13 Pre-Week 4 W 3

U 35

Saturday 08/26/06

 Cleveland L 17-20 Pre-Week 3 L -3.5 O 34.5
Friday    08/18/06 Cincinnati L 31-44 Pre-Week 2 L -3.5 O 34
Saturday 08/12/06 @ Carolina L 13-14 Pre-Week 1 W 3

U 35

 

 
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Friday   09/02/05

 Detroit L 7-21 Pre-Week 4 L -6.5 U 36.5
Friday   08/26/05 @ Chicago L 12-16 Pre-Week 3 L -3 U 36.5
Saturday 08/20/05 Green Bay W 27-7 Pre-Week 2 W -6 U 37.5
Saturday 08/13/05 @ Indianapolis W 17-10 Pre-Week 1 W 2.5

U 40.5

 

Thursday  09/02/04

 @ Detroit L 17-20 Pre-Week 4 W 6 O 33
Saturday  08/28/04 @ Indianapolis L 17-30 Pre-Week 3 L 6.5 O 38
Saturday  08/21/04 Tennessee L 15-16 Pre-Week 2 W 1.5 U 35.5
Sunday  08/15/04 Denver W 16-6 Pre-Week 1 W 3.5 U 34.5
 
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As you can all see Buffalo has been quite good on the road winning half of their last 10 preseason games ( 5-5 SU ) and actually going 8-2 ATS

Also , Buffalo has gone 6-0 ATS on their last 6 preseason game openers  ( 4-2 SU )

Most importantly, Buffalo has relished the underdog role by going a stellar 9-0 ATS & 11-1 ATS ( 7-4 SU )

These numbers are enough to make Buffalo the first trend pick for the 2009-2010 NFL season ...

Underdog trend pick : Buffalo + 2.5 / 3 

Buffalo is ( 11-1 ATS ) as an underdog during last 12 preseason games ...

Trend Picks Record :
 
2008-2009 season: 
 
" Underdog " Trend picks : 10-6
" Favorite "  trend picks : 6-8
" Totals " trend picks : 5-2
 
Overall >>> Trend picks : 21-16 ( 56.7 % )  
 
2007-2008 season:
 
Trend Picks : 12-2-1 ( 85.7 % ) !~
 
Last 2 years combined >>>
 
33-18-1 ( 64.7 % )
 
*********************************************
Please mention any errors so they can be corrected
Good Luck !
RF
****************
 
All-Star
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Posted: #6
How do you have time to pull all these stats and trends together is beyond me...

BOL this year Roberto!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
what do u feel about all the buzz surrounding t.o.
 
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Posted: #8
Against you here roberto but GL.
 
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Posted: #9
Good luck this year Roberto.
 
MVP
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Posted: #10
roberto, someo f the best info on the site...
 
 
 
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Posted: #11
Good trend info.
 
But Buffy's strong opening X game performances in recent years is offset by a weak starting QB rotation (figure that both team starters may play a series or two, then the backups come in for the rest of the game)
 
Thus, Trent Edwards may play the first few series for Bills.  You can go to the Bills site to see who the lightly seasoned backup QBs are.
 
Tennessee, on the other hand, has one of the strongest (ie, most expereinced) rotations. After Kerry Collinsthere is Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey, both with a lot of starting experience in the NFL.
 
Titans do have a rookie QB in camp,who may or may not play in the 4th Q.
 
The game is, logically, a pass as far as money risk.
 
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Posted: #12
Here's a point I haven't seen anyone else discuss yet.  And, I think it is very important....  Ralph Wilson Jr being inducted into HOF last night - the only owner the bills have EVER had - he helped start the AFC!  If anyone saw the ceremony last night, he gave a heart-felt and touching speech.  I know he looked like an old geezer up there, but I respect old geezers for all that they've accomplished in their lives and he certainly has accomplished a  lot.  I think the coaches and players and especially the FANS will have a little extra something to honor the owner tonight..... just my opinion
 
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Posted: #14
just wanted to say TY Roberto for giving this information out.  You wouldn't believe the insane BS that all the "prospects" are giving out as fact about this game.  TY for sharing!
 
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Posted: #17
Let's add the following >>>
 
for the 2008-2009 preseason week 1 , Underdogs went a strong 11-2-2  ( one game had a 0 line )
This was the stat going into week 1 of the 2008 preseason ::
 
Underdogs have a solid 90-67 overall mark (57%) in week one
( per two minute warning )
 
Updating to include LY's results ( though spreads may differ ) 
 
Underdogs have a solid 101-69-2 ( 59.4 % ) overall mark in week one
.
Plus , let's assume Systat 's #'s to be correct from his own post >>>
13 win teams are 3-12 ATS in last 15 as preseason favs
 
And I did check that the >>>
 
Underdog is 14-0 ATS in Bufalo's last 14 preseason games !
( Look at covers scoreboard to see that the underdog in Bill's games have swept three years in a row ..ATS .)
Also from Systat >>>
 
7 wins teams are:
 
14-2-1 ATS last 17 as preseason dogs
 
4-16-1 ATS last 21 as preseason favs
 
Note :
 
Underdogs have had their way on week 1 of preseason going
11-2-2 ATS LY
 ( per covers scoreboard final lines and scores ) ,
 though the HOF game is conidered separately as these same teams will be playing in week 1 of preseason .
 
HOF games have recently gone to the favored team with the exception of the Oakland-Philadelphia game in 2006 where the Raiders beat the Eagles as 2.5 point dogs 16-10
 
*********************************
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
great stats and info Fiory
 
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Looking ahead to week 1 preseason's games 2009 starting thu 2009 >>>
from ( 2 min warning )
 
In Week one, POOR prior season teams are 12-21 ATS at home against POOR or AVERAGE away teams ( Ly 1-1 ATS )
 
Good teams : Teams with 10 or more wins in prior regular season
Average teams : Teams with 7 to 9 wins in prior regular season
Poor teams : Teams with less than 7 wins in prior regualr season

" Good "  teams : Miami, NE, Pitt, Bal, Tenn, Indi , NYG, Minn, Caro, Atlanta

" Average" teams : NYJ, Buff, Hou, SD, Den, Phil. Dall, Wash, Chi, TB, NO, Ari, SF

" Poor " teams : Cinn, Clev, Jac, Oak, KC, GB, Det, Sea, StL

Based on this,  these are the plays :
 
Dallas + 1 @ Oakland   thursday   
Cleveland + 3 @ GB  saturday
Houston + 1 @ KC  saturday
 
Preseason Notes :
 
Oakland is 5-1 ATS @ home over the last 3 years , though Tom Cable, iterim coach last season offically takes over as head coach of the Raiders.
 
Eric Mangini taking over the Brown's head coach position was
4-1 SU & ATS on the road as Jets head coach .
 
Wade Phillips of the Dallas Cowboys has a perfect record on the road in preseason ( 0-4 SU & ATS  ) losing by 9, 12 , 14, and 10 points.
 
Mike McCarthy and his Green Bay Packers lost both games SU @ home last year's preseason and split the two prior years with the team. ( 2-4 SU @ 3-3 ATS )
 
Gary Kubiak of the Houston Texans has proven a to be a good bet on the road since taking over as head coach in 2006 going
5-1 ATS while winning 3 of the road games played .
 
Todd Haley takes over as head coach for the KC Chiefs , a team that since this decade began has won as many games as they have lost @ home , while going 7-11 ATS during this span
 
Cleveland , with new head coach Eric Mangini having proved a winner in road games while with the NY Jets during preseason, going against a Mike McCarthy led GB Packers team that has a losing record at home seems to be an attractive side to be on this Saturday .
Backed by the system play mentioned above while getting the full complimentary 3 points in a preseason week ( # 1 ) that typically favors the underdog
( as was clearly the case last season ) ...leads to >>>
 
Cleveland + 3 as an  Underdog trend pick as well .
 
******************************************
 
 
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Posted: #20
Final score HOF game :  Ten 21 Buff 18
 
Covers NFL scoreboard will determine lines throughtout the season for trend picks as I've done in the past ...
Buff + 3
Underdog trend pick >>>push
YTD : 0-0-1
Next in line : Cleveland ( + 3 ) @ Green Bay
****************
 
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Posted: #21
excellent work
 
 
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Posted: #22

Some preseason trends coming from preseason profit reports & sportsbettingstats >>>

Keep in mind there plenty of new coaches making their debuts !

Aug. 13, Dallas @ Oakland – Cowboys are 4-0 SU and ATS vs. Raiders since 2001

Play Dallas

Aug. 14, Denver @ SF - Broncos have dominated the 49ers, going 9-1 SU & ATS past 10 vs. SF

Play Denver

Aug. 21, KC @ Minnesota – Chiefs are 1-9 ATS past 10 preseason road games

Play Minnesota

Aug. 22, TB @ Jacksonville – Bucs are 0-6 ATS past 6 preseason battles vs the Jaguars

Play Jacksonville

Aug. 22, Giants @ Chicago - UNDER is 1-8 past 9 Giant road games and Bears are 2-12 ATS past 14 preseason home games

Play UNDER and Giants

Aug. 22, Denver @ Seattle – one-sided battles, Broncos outscored Hawks 70-6 in past three preseason wins

Play Denver

Aug. 29, SF @ Dallas - 49ers are 1-10 SU, 3-7-1 ATS past 11 road games and the Cowboys have been preseason gold at home, going 11-0-1 SU, 9-3 ATS past 12 at Texas Stadium.

Play Dallas

Aug. 29, Giants vs. Jets –  These teams have combined to play 8 straight preseason UNDERS

Play UNDER

Sept. 3, Philadelphia @ NY Jets – these teams play every year and every year the Eagles lose (1-10 SU).

Play Jets

***********************

 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

Let's add the following >>>
 
for the 2008-2009 preseason week 1 , Underdogs went a strong 11-2-2  ( one game had a 0 line )
This was the stat going into week 1 of the 2008 preseason ::
 
Underdogs have a solid 90-67 overall mark (57%) in week one
( per two minute warning )
 
Updating to include LY's results ( though spreads may differ ) 
 
Underdogs have a solid 101-69-2 ( 59.4 % ) overall mark in week one
.
Plus , let's assume Systat 's #'s to be correct from his own post >>>
13 win teams are 3-12 ATS in last 15 as preseason favs
 
And I did check that the >>>
 
Underdog is 14-0 ATS in Bufalo's last 14 preseason games !
( Look at covers scoreboard to see that the underdog in Bill's games have swept three years in a row ..ATS .)
Also from Systat >>>
 
7 wins teams are:
 
14-2-1 ATS last 17 as preseason dogs
 
4-16-1 ATS last 21 as preseason favs
 
Note :
 
Underdogs have had their way on week 1 of preseason going
11-2-2 ATS LY
 ( per covers scoreboard final lines and scores ) ,
 though the HOF game is conidered separately as these same teams will be playing in week 1 of preseason .
 
HOF games have recently gone to the favored team with the exception of the Oakland-Philadelphia game in 2006 where the Raiders beat the Eagles as 2.5 point dogs 16-10
 
*********************************

 

Roberto Fiory, you are true loser. You have nothing better to do with your time.  You search all these stats, then instead of betting them, you share them in this forum.  I feel sad for you, no friends, no life.

Do the accolades you recieve here make you feel good?  If you had any brains or any friends you would bet your own stuff and not share it with the world.  You are the definition of the word LOSER.

 

 
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Thanks
 
 
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Posted: #25
Here are the 11 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:

Cleveland – Eric Mangini
Denver – Josh McDaniels
Detroit – Jim Schwartz
Indianapolis – Jim Caldwell
Kansas City – Todd Haley
N.Y. Jets – Rex Ryan
Oakland – Tom Cable (interim coach last season)
St. Louis – Steve Spagnuolo
San Francisco – Mike Singletary (interim coach last season)
Seattle – Jim Mora
Tampa Bay – Raheem Morris
 
****************************
Of the above mentioned trends , the only one not involving a new coach is

Aug. 22, Giants @ Chicago - UNDER is 1-8 past 9 Giant road games and Bears are 2-12 ATS past 14 preseason home games

Play : UNDER and Giants

This game takes place on saturday August 22   week 2 of the preseason

Teams ROT Record
NYG 0-0 (0-0 V) -
CHI 0-0 (0-0 H) -
 
*******************************

 
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