🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

@fubah2

Jerry's Boys look good to play in this postseason. Their remain schedule apparently favors them.  

 Originally Posted by fubah2  THANKSGIVING stuffing . . .    DETROIT -139 ml @pinn       (NOT a Best Bet) DALLAS +3.5 -120 @B365   (NOT a Best Bet) EAGLES -311 ml @pinn     *BB   .....      EAGLES GAME 

Turkey Day game #3...

LEANING to Ravens... but I want the ML and it is too high pre-game...

Week 13 so far:

 L   DETROIT -139 ml @pinn
W  LIVE hedge BET, late 1Q, Det ball, down 0 - 3: PACKERS -105 @B365
W  DALLAS +3.5 -120 @B365

LEAN to Ravens . . . for possible ML bet in game....maybe...if playing well.

Shite.....The moneyline dropped from -370 to -330 briefly after Bungles drive ended in a fieldgoal, but then started shooting higher as the Ravens drove downfield.....Not it's 7 - 3 and the ML (-600)  is just too high....

YOWZA!!!    HUGE LUCKY BREAK for Cinci! 

Ravens O & D appear to playing well enough, I suppose....ripe for a ML bet..... though I sure would prefer a smaller ML as this LUCKY BREAK for Cinci proves how easily a good game *could* turn into a disaster!  

 More evidence needed before pulling the trigger on a high ML....

The way they are playing the last two games against decent opps,  YEP!

ML is around -550 to end 1Q and still too high...and too iffy as well 

And now a *SECOND* HUGE unforced LUCKY BREAK to Cinci...

Still 7 - 6 though.... and the ml is -370 and soon to fall more if Cinci O moves the ball...

Looking like my LEAN to the UNDER 52 has a fairly good chance this evening! 

And now a *3RD* HUGE unforced LUCKY BREAK to Cinci...

LUCK.

That's all it is....

Division games often times away dogs covered the spread. I assume.

But this game isn't over yet.

HT   12 - 7 for the very, VERY  lucky Bungles...

Despite Cinci being gifted 2 free fieldgoals off turnovers and Ravens TD wiped out, and despite 3 net turnovers - all UNforced - going to the lucky Bungles,  the Ravens offense is producing 5.7 YPP  vs  just 4.6 for Joe Burrow against the Raven defense.  The Bungles only have more 1stH net yards BECAUSE of the 3 UNFORCED turnovers bouncing their way to both score and keep the Ravens offense off the field.....suggesting when the RAVENS get the ball to start the 3Q there is still every opportunity to win SU (moneyline) -- provided the Bungles have reached their luck limit of 3 UNFORCED turnovers...

ML is low and playable on Ravens now.......seriously considering.......only thing giving me pause is whether or not the Bungles will continue to profit from gaining UNFORCED  and/or  incredibly lucky breaks...

3 and out... 

Game is now a pick'em on the ml    

And now we learn top CB for RAVENS, Nate WIGGINS, is injured and out....

Down by 12, Ravens are still capable of winning the game. But to cover it doesn't look promising.

Yes, fair chance, esp after this last TD drive.......that's what I was expecting out of HT.....

19 - 14 and Bungles are still a thin fav to win SU because RAVENS defense is struggling....

...BUT....yet another lucky turnover goes to Cinci....

RAVENS will lose this.  There is no comeback after 2 ins into the 4Q....toast.

Moneyline on the lucky/former 7 pt underdog Bungles is up to -1000 leading 26 - 14 ....as RAVENS D is clearly struggling....so even if LAMAR is able to score, their D will yield yet another score.....

HUGE UPSET tonight....and LUCKY BREAKS had everything to do with it....

@fubah2

Limit Bengals here with a FG, Ravens ml is still alive in 2 positions game .

29 - 14 mid 4Q and very lucky Bungles are -10,000 ml favs 

Bungles are -10,000 ml favs 

Wow crazy number to be honest but that says everything.

@Europa

 Yeah........All 3 dogs won SU today

Tomorrow - BROWN Friday - Chicago is the dog @Philly....

Tomorrow I'm off to golf with my buddies. Good luck to your bets on this game, have a profitable Friday. 

UNDER wins!       (not a posted bet)