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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #2726

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

....And DL Highsmith is hurt too!  If he can't continue HUGE lucky break for Pats! He is now officially QUESTIONABLE to return!!!! PATS score to go up 14 - 3...

I've seen enough to feel reasonably confident with a LIVE BET here including juice:

PATS -1.5 -300 alt-line

WINNER! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #2727

Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u moneybag        ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)
Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u moneybag       (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)
Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u moneybag       (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)

 

     TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u

=  61 - 16   +88.95u  an_2drinks     (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)

an_light Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks!

 
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Posted: #2728

an_light IMPORTANT stat in my handicapping...

 

NFL Teams with best point differential:

+168   Dallas (9 - 3)
+163   49ers (9 - 3)

+137   Ravens (9 - 3)

+118    Miami (9 - 3)  <---- much of this from a one-off 70 - 20 rout
+101    Buffalo (6 - 6)

  +67   Chiefs  (8 - 4)

 
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Posted: #2729

In my capping I frequently find value in betting a heavy fav.
But NOT ATS!


Check this out (using VI as source)

Heavy HOME favs (-7.5 or more) from Week 4 until today:
12 - 12 ATS = loser an_burn_money

but...

10 - 0  SU on HOME FAVS of 10.5+ (yes, heavy moneylines)

Here's the thing: the HOME FAV ML vigs are very large on most, but a cheaper deal can be had by buying points down to -3....still large ML but not as bad, and the result so far would have been  10 - 0

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #2730

32 - 7

on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #2731

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

32 - 7

 

on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more

Star TE Goedert is back for Eagles on Sunday! an_bounce

 
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Posted: #2732

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

32 - 7

 

on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more

 

Star TE Goedert is back for Eagles on Sunday!

Star Denver RB Perine highly questionable as well as Walker for Seattle.

 
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Posted: #2733

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 32 - 7   on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more   Star TE Goedert is back for Eagles on Sunday! Star Denver RB Perine highly questionable as well as Walker for Seattle.
Saints have mounting injuries but Derek Carr is cleared for action.

 
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Posted: #2734

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 32 - 7   on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more   Star TE Goedert is back for Eagles on Sunday! Star Denver RB Perine highly questionable as well as Walker for Seattle.Saints have mounting injuries but Derek Carr is cleared for action.
Injuries piling up for 49ers against a betting line that has increased!

 
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Posted: #2735

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: 32 - 7   on all PRE-GAME bets of -270 juice or more   Star TE Goedert is back for Eagles on Sunday! Star Denver RB Perine highly questionable as well as Walker for Seattle.Saints have mounting injuries but Derek Carr is cleared for action.

Injuries piling up for 49ers against a betting line that has increased!

Not liking the injury situation for the 48ers....

 
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Posted: #2736

GL Sunday peace_5peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
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Posted: #2737

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u moneybag        ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)
Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u moneybag       (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)
Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u moneybag       (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)

     TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u

       =  61 - 16   +88.95u  an_2drinks     (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)

        an_light Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks!

Fubah's NFL week 14:

NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.an_shake  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...

  Browns -1 -156
  Browns -165
  Saints -266
  Bengals -2 -106
  Bengals -128
  Ravens -3 -290
  Ravens -336

BoL on Sunday everyone thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #2738

Also,  lean to 9ers, but only on an alt-line if at all....or I will look for other opps in game.

 
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Posted: #2739

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Also,  lean to 9ers, but only on an alt-line if at all....or I will look for other opps in game.
...most likely that will be a play on SF with an alt-line resembling -2 or -3 with a vig no worse than maybe -350 give or take  at maximum..........smaller the better

 
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Posted: #2740

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Also,  lean to 9ers, but only on an alt-line if at all....or I will look for other opps in game....most likely that will be a play on SF with an alt-line resembling -2 or -3 with a vig no worse than maybe -350 give or take  at maximum..........smaller the better
...for that to happen, Seattle will have to go up by a TD ....

 
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Posted: #2741

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Also,  lean to 9ers, but only on an alt-line if at all....or I will look for other opps in game....most likely that will be a play on SF with an alt-line resembling -2 or -3 with a vig no worse than maybe -350 give or take  at maximum..........smaller the better...for that to happen, Seattle will have to go up by a TD ....
...also leaning toward Dolphins but the ML and spread are too much

 
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Posted: #2742

Fubah's super-duper-pooper, deep-dive-forensic, totally friggin awesome, fully guaranteed NFL Ratings for Week 12:
(in ranked order left to right within each tier)

Top tier: Dallas, 49ers, Balt, Miami, Philly, KC

2nd tier: Detroit, Buffy, Jags,

Mediocre: Houston, Minny, GB, Sea, Cleve, Cinci, NOR, Pitts, LAC, Indy, Tampa, Rams, Atlanta,

4th tier: Denver, LV, AZ, Chicago, Tenn, Jets, Wash,

Bottom: NYG, NE, Carolina

 
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Posted: #2743

clover

 
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Posted: #2744

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyone
 @fubah2    If you're convinced you're going to lose this week why bother betting so many?  You doubled up on three teams an_speechless confused

 

Anyway good luck clover

 
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Posted: #2745

Quote Originally Posted by Fuse:

GL Sunday

Thanks, FUSE, you rascal! peace_5 And BoL with your props today!

 
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Posted: #2746

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyone
LIVE BET early 1Q Chicago just scored:  Both teams to score 15+? YES -275

 
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Posted: #2747

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyoneLIVE BET early 1Q Chicago just scored:  Both teams to score 15+? YES -275

an_police All everything for CHIEFS, RB Pacheco is OUT today vs desperate Bills! an_getaway

 
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Posted: #2748

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyoneLIVE BET early 1Q Chicago just scored:  Both teams to score 15+? YES -275 All everything for CHIEFS, RB Pacheco is OUT today vs desperate Bills!
LIVE BET early 2Q, RAMS just scored, 10 - 7: Both teams to score 15+? YES -240 

 

and RAMS +10.5 -390 alt-line    an_boggienightLooking for the middle!

 
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Posted: #2749

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyoneLIVE BET early 1Q Chicago just scored:  Both teams to score 15+? YES -275 All everything for CHIEFS, RB Pacheco is OUT today vs desperate Bills!LIVE BET early 2Q, RAMS just scored, 10 - 7: Both teams to score 15+? YES -240    and RAMS +10.5 -390 alt-line    Looking for the middle!
VERY LUCKY COLTS gain a pick-6 off a tipped ball.... to come from behind 0 - 14 to tie the game....... Meanwhile RAMS playing above their heads in the wet conditions.  Ravens in a much tougher fight than expected and the game looks dead even now.

 
 
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Posted: #2750

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Week 13:   19 - 3   +18.63u         ( 5 - 2 *Best Bets!)Week 12:   24 - 7   +25.52u        (17 - 4 *Best Bets!)Week 11:    17 - 4   +45.80u        (10 - 1 *Best Bets!)      TNF: 1 - 2  -1.0u        =  61 - 16   +88.95u       (32 - 8  *Best Bets!)         Posted NFL bets just from recent 3 weeks! Fubah's NFL week 14: NOTE: I am expecting this will likely be "regression week" after running a super HOT streak the past 3 weeks. I am chopping down my bet sizing accordingly! Seen this movie many times before, so I've learned hard lessons from it. Obviously no *Best Bets when I anticipate losses coming... This applies to anyone in a similar situation. Skipping this week would NOT sidestep the regression. It has to come sooner or later on my NFL bets because I am way over my usual profit margin! There is no avoiding regression to my usual mean.  In this situation all one can do is ride it out by chopping down the bet sizes to minimize the losing results...   Browns -1 -156  Browns -165  Saints -266  Bengals -2 -106  Bengals -128  Ravens -3 -290  Ravens -336 BoL on Sunday everyoneLIVE BET early 1Q Chicago just scored:  Both teams to score 15+? YES -275 All everything for CHIEFS, RB Pacheco is OUT today vs desperate Bills!LIVE BET early 2Q, RAMS just scored, 10 - 7: Both teams to score 15+? YES -240    and RAMS +10.5 -390 alt-line    Looking for the middle!
2 min warning LIVE BET, Rams lead 17 - 14 and driving: RAMS +8.5 -400

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