**TNF Details and Write Up**

Here we have a matchup the NFL is drooling over, thanks to the Cowboys resurgance.  Normally, I go back and forth quite a bit when I am capping prime time games, but this one really did not take much time for me to decide.  I like the the Saints by 2 scores here, for the following reasons:

1. The simplest and most important factor to this game is the Saints have the #1 rush defense in the NFL, and Dallas is dead in the water if they can't run the ball.  You could try to make the argument that teams don't try to run on the Saints because they are playing catch up, but its irrelevant as they have the lowest yard per carry average (3.6) as well.

2. Dallas' top 2 lineman are banged up.  Both Smith and Martin will play, but neither is 100%.  That does not bode well for a team that needs to rush for at least 175 yards to win this game.

3. For all of the attention Dallas is getting about their win streak, they have defeated exactly one team with a winning record this season, a fledging Redskins outfit that rolled out a backup QB and two backup offensive linemen.

4. Conversely, the Saints have won 6 out of their last 7 games by double digit points, including 10 point wins over both the Rams and Vikings, both of which are vastly superior to Dallas.

5. This is not a trap game for the Saints.  They need to keep winning to secure home field, and the early schedule does not favor either team, as both teams played exactly one week ago today./

6. Dallas has little home field advantage to speak of in Jerry World.  There will probably be a large Saints contingent, so the atmosphere is a virtual non factor.

Bottom Line: 

Dallas would need to completley control the clock, rush for at least 175 yards, and force at minimum 2-3 turnovers to win this game outright.  The Saints have proven to be nearly unstoppable, and while Dallas has a much better defense this year, they are stll likely to give up at least 28 points to a rolling Saints offense.  This puts the Cowboys offense in an uncomfortable situation, and in the end, they do not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Saints.

NO -7 is the play./

Spot on.  Who Dat!

Title should be TNF not MNF 

lol I really should get my days straight.  I can't figure out how to edit it, so I guess just rolling with it.

If teams are not willing to rush on the Saints then they have fewer attempts so of course the yards per carry number will be in the Saints favor.  You need to take into account the amount of attempts or else that stat is useless.  And as I wrote in another thread, the Saints havent played any of the top 7 best rushing teams based on DVOA other than the Rams who they lead by 28 pts on so that game was moot.  Simply put the Saints rush defense is a farce.  Not saying its garbage but it certainly is no where near the best in the league.   

On top of that, the Cowboys know the Saints are going to load the box and try and stop Zeke.  Why do you think they got Amari Cooper.  Look for Dak to repeat throwing it out to Cooper for intermediate soft routes and beasley/zeke underneath to move the chains.  The only thing Im scared of from the Saints defense is there ability to cause turnovers, fumbles and picks.  This is where I am really worried.

Thanks for changing that Houston.

TC, I get what you're saying.  I did consider that, but the numbers show that while the Saints D have faced the fewest rushing attempts, they are similar to the 2nd and 3rd best rushing D teams as well.  I would venture a lot of teams try to run the ball as a tactic of keep away from the Saints (like the Vikings tried to do), and failed.  Either way, I don't see Zeke going wild.

The best defense is a good offense. If your offense has the ability to score quickly and go up a couple td’s and force the opposing team to abandon their run game, why not? Saints offense is so potent it forces opponents to play out of their comfort zone.

I'd agree they're not best in the league as they haven't faced any notable rushing attacks, besides Gurley where the Rams had to pass all game.

But I disagree with your main point. If anything, they lack of rush attempts should mean a less stacked box, so when teams DO run, they should have more space to work with.

Agreed.  It is actually easier for an offense to have a better ypc with less attempts.

Good Luck BigHans 

WHO DEY 

not dat